The rise of C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love were two of the best stories from the 2023 NFL season. Both quickly went from unproven quarterbacks to being labeled as the next generation of star signal-callers.
They could soon join Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow as some of the best quarterbacks in the league. But, first, Stroud and Love will need to prove their breakout seasons weren’t a fluke.
The young stars can do that by guiding their respective teams back to the postseason, while also leading a few notable statistical categories. Wins and impressive numbers tend to go hand in hand for the game’s best quarterbacks. Last season, Tua Tagovailoa had a league-high 4,624 passing yards, and Dak Prescott recorded a league-high 36 passing touchdowns. Both appeared in the postseason.
We’re expecting Stroud and Love to put up impressive numbers again for the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers, respectively, because we have them down as league leaders in two of our 11 NFL stats predictions for 2024. Let’s get to the predictions.
Passing yards: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stefon Diggs is going to demand that Stroud and the Texans throw the ball more in 2024. O.K., that was a terrible joke. I’m not one of those people who expects Diggs to provide more headaches than plays with his new team. I’m expecting Stroud to get more passing attempts than his memorable rookie season and will ensure his dynamic trio of Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell stay involved throughout games.
Coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive play-caller Bobby Slowik likely have no issues with giving Stroud a heavier workload after the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year recorded 4,108 yards, 23 passing touchdowns and only five interceptions last season. Not many quarterbacks are as efficient as Stroud when it comes to picking teams apart from the pocket.
Passing TDs: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
I strongly considered Love for the passing yards prediction, but the Packers might look to run the ball more in 2024 after splurging in free agency for running back Josh Jacobs. A balanced attack could minimize Love’s mistakes in crunch time. He occasionally got in trouble last season searching for the big play while the team played from behind. But the Packers possibly running the ball more this season doesn’t necessarily mean less downfield shots for Love in his second season as the starter.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur will take advantage of Love’s strong arm, especially after he proved himself in 2023, evident by the massive four-year, $220 million contract extension Love signed this summer. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Love top the 32 touchdowns he threw last season.
Rushing yards: Breece Hall, New York Jets
Here’s hoping Aaron Rodgers stays healthy throughout the 2024 season. If that’s the case, Hall could be primed for a career season now that he’s more than a year removed from the torn ACL that cut short his impressive rookie season in ’22. Also, the Jets improved their offensive line, with the additions of tackles Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and rookie Olu Fashanu, and guard John Simpson.
With a stagnant Jets offense last year, Hall still managed to rush for 994 yards, averaging 4.5 yards on 223 carries. He’s a strong candidate to compete for the rushing title as long as Rodgers stays healthy.
Rushing TDs: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Some might have concerns about the Colts not utilizing Richardson in the running game because of the injuries he sustained as a rookie. His designed runs might decline a bit, but I wouldn’t expect the Colts to not lean on Richardson’s athleticism and 6'4", 244-pound frame in redzone situations.
Coach Shane Steichen, one of the best play-callers in the league, likely won’t shy away from creative packages that utilize Richardson’s vast skill set. Look for Richardson, who scored four rushing touchdowns in four games last year, to find the end zone on running plays at least 15 times in 2024. That’s how many rushing touchdowns Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts recorded last year, second most in the league behind running back Raheem Mostert’s 18 scores.
Receptions: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
I had many statistical predictions wrong last year, but at least Lamb made me look good in this category after recording a league-high 135 receptions. Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown finished a distant second with 119 catches apiece. Perhaps the gap closes this season because St. Brown’s Detroit Lions and Hill’s Miami Dolphins should have high-scoring offenses again, and both dynamic receivers didn’t miss the bulk of training camp.
Lamb is seeking a contract extension that matches the new deals the aforementioned wide receivers agreed to in the offseason. But time away shouldn’t hurt Lamb’s chemistry with Dak Prescott. The Cowboys know how important Lamb is to the success of the offense. Expect him to lead the league in receptions for a second consecutive season, and to cash in days before the season opener.
Receiving yards: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Hill was on track to become the first player in NFL history to record 2,000 receiving yards in a season until he sustained an ankle injury late in the year, but he still finished with a league-high 1,799 receiving yards.
With Hill showing no signs of slowing, he might again flirt with 2,000 receiving yards in his ninth NFL season, especially with the Dolphins bringing back the core group of Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle—they, too, agreed to contract extensions in the offseason.
Also, Hill could have more opportunities for chunk plays if second-year running back De’Von Achane stays healthy and tops what he did in his rookie season. There are too many speedy playmakers to account for in coach Mike McDaniel’s offense, which could lead to many peace signs from Hill this season.
Receiving TDs: Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Harrison might need to break Randy Moss’s rookie record of 17 touchdowns in a season to end the year as the league leader in this statistical category.
That’s a lot of touchdowns, but Harrison is no ordinary rookie—the No. 4 pick in April’s draft has drawn comparisons to A.J. Green and Larry Fitzgerald. And maybe it won’t require 17 touchdowns because last year’s league leader had 13, a tie between Mike Evans and Hill.
Seventeen touchdowns is a lot in any season, but let’s not limit what Harrison could do with quarterback Kyler Murray and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, a rising play-caller who maximized a Cardinals offense that lacked talent in 2023.
Scoring: Brandon Aubrey, Dallas Cowboys
Most scoring leaders tend to be kickers who play on teams with high-scoring offenses. The Cowboys’ offense has been a productive unit the past few seasons, even last year when coach Mike McCarthy took over the play-calling duties. Aubrey isn’t a skill-position player, but the kicker contributed to the Cowboys ranking high in most offensive statistical categories in 2023.
Aubrey led the league in scoring with 157 points after delivering one of the best rookie seasons ever for a kicker. The former professional soccer player drilled 36-of-38 field-goal attempts, and went 49-of-52 on extra-point kicks. He will again be a valuable weapon in McCarthy’s offense.
Sacks: Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
Probably the safe prediction here is T.J. Watt, who has led the league in sacks three of the past four seasons, including 19 last year.
But the 49ers might be at the end of their Super Bowl window, and that sense of urgency could lead to a monster season from Bosa, the sack leader in 2022.
Bosa’s defensive line might not be as deep as it’s been in previous years, but the secondary appears to be better and the linebacker duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw remains a strength. Expect Bosa, who has 53.5 career sacks, to make the most of his defensive help this season.
Interceptions: Derek Stingley Jr., Houston Texans
Stingley had a bounce-back season after an injury riddled rookie year in 2022.
The dynamic playmaker reminded the football public about why the Texans drafted him with the No. 3 pick, one spot ahead of Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. Stingley recorded five interceptions and 13 passes defended, and earned a coverage grade of 85.3 from Pro Football Focus.
Opposing quarterbacks might look in the opposite direction of Stingley, but he tends to find ways to create impact plays.
Tackles: Foyesade Oluokun, Jacksonville Jaguars
To ensure I get a few predictions right, I’m going with the surest bet here, maybe even a lock, because of how many tackles Foyesade Oluokun has racked up the past three seasons.
Oluokun led the league in total tackles in 2021 (184) and ’22 (192), and finished fourth last season with 173 tackles.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Stats Predictions: C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Breece Hall Make the List.
