The 2024 NFL season is finally here! Our staff has already predicted which teams will win the next five Super Bowls (really), plus Conor Orr picked all 272 regular-season games, Matt Verderame ranked the 59 people who will have an impact on who wins Super Bowl LIX, Gilberto Manzano predicted who’ll lead the league in various stats, and much more. Now it’s time to make our picks for the upcoming season.
Check below for The MMQB’s staff predictions for award winners, division winners and full playoff brackets, including Super Bowl LIX champions and MVPs. Plus, each of our writers and editors give one bold prediction, covering everything from receiving records to surprise contenders to the quarterback carousel.
Here’s who we have making picks this season:
Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter
Conor Orr, senior writer
Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Matt Verderame, staff writer
Greg Bishop, senior writer
Michael Rosenberg, senior writer
Andrew Brandt, business of football columnist
John Pluym, managing editor
Mitch Goldich, senior editor
Albert Breer
Super Bowl: 49ers 23, Bengals 20; Christian McCaffrey MVP
Season awards:
MVP: Joe Burrow
OPOY Christian McCaffrey
DPOY: Micah Parsons
OROY: Caleb Williams
DROY: Laiatu Latu
Comeback: Aaron Rodgers
Coach: Matt LaFleur
I’m going with 2024 being The Year of Urgency. The two teams I have standing at the end, the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals, are both likely to undergo some roster shifting over the next couple of years, based on how their contracts are set up. So this could be the last shot, not for the franchises (both are too well-positioned for that), but for the particular groups of players on those rosters right now. And those groups of players have knocked on the door for years, experienced seasons destroyed by injuries and are as talented as any in the NFL. To take it to another level: I almost picked the New York Jets to get by the Bengals in the divisional round and have their shot at the Chiefs, with the same dynamic existing there. So give me the same rematch of Super Bowls XVI and XXIII that I picked last year, but this time I’ll pick San Francisco coming out as the champion.
Bold prediction: CeeDee Lamb, coming out of his holdout, will become the first receiver in NFL history to top 2,000 yards in a season—breaking the all-time record of 1,964 set by Detroit Lions legend Calvin Johnson in 2012. Lamb had 1,749 yards last year, and that was without much to draw coverage away from him in the Dallas Cowboys’ receiver and tight ends corps. So Lamb’s clearly shown he can be the guy in that way, and the Cowboys will be really reliant on him again.
Conor Orr
Super Bowl: Lions 31, Chiefs 30; Jared Goff MVP
Season awards:
MVP: Josh Allen
OPOY: Bijan Robinson
DPOY: T.J. Watt
OROY: Caleb Williams
DROY: Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Comeback: Joe Burrow
Coach: Jim Harbaugh
I initially had the Lions and Bengals facing off, but backtracked just slightly. The Joe Burrow comeback narrative is just a little too tidy for me. The Bengals sustained some heavy losses in free agency, most notably new Lions treasure D.J. Reader, and Cincinnati is also breaking in a new offensive coordinator. Burrow is great, but is still knocking off a ton of rust and plays in the toughest division in football. I remember covering the NFL through the New England Patriots’ dynasty and believing that every year the AFC would produce some plucky and fun contender before New England simply sat on the competition and leaned its way into another title game. So, bleh. Boring to pick the Kansas City Chiefs. I get it. But America will be behind the Lions, a deep team, a fiery team and one of destiny. Some of my other picks are chalky, but I think Defensive Rookie of the Year is fascinating given the lack of defensive players taken in the first round of the draft. So, we’re left to project a big season for a middle-tier first-rounder or gamble on the more likely scenario: Some player from outside of the first round plays lights out and makes a bunch of scouts and general managers look bad. It happens all the time. Maybe Rakestraw, a player whom I sent to the Baltimore Ravens in the first round of my annual mock draft, will be that dude.
I really like Josh Allen as an MVP pick, because he’s going to perform well without Stefon Diggs and, thus, garner the narrative of someone putting a larger weight on his back. It’s always enjoyable to get answers in real time, and we’ll find that, in 2024, it was Allen’s uncanny arm talent and play-lengthening ability (in addition to his snap-by-snap efficiency) that led this offense into a space where the Buffalo Bills are perpetually expected to compete for the division.
And, yes, Jim Harbaugh will be Coach of the Year, even though there are others I think will deserve it more. (Matt LaFleur, Dan Campbell, etc.) Harbaugh will have executed the biggest perceived turnaround, which will notch him the title.
Bold prediction: If you’re interested, I have made 100 of them right here! Still looking for more, I see? Well then, how about this: The dynamic kickoff is going to be … not dynamic! I’ve mentioned it a few times and now Bill Belichick has proclaimed it on national television. The bottom line: Special teams coordinators don’t want to put their you-know-whats in the jackpot. It’s why defensive coordinators play umbrella zone coverages. They don’t want to get ripped for 200 yards a game by Tyreek Hill. Special teams coordinators don’t want to give up a kick return and have the camera panning to them on the sideline every 13 seconds during a game.
Gilberto Manzano
Super Bowl: Texans 24, Lions 23; C.J. Stroud MVP
Season awards:
MVP: Josh Allen
OPOY: Bijan Robinson
DPOY: Maxx Crosby
OROY: Caleb Williams
DROY: Laiatu Latu
Comeback: Aaron Rodgers
Coach: Dan Campbell
I almost predicted another Chiefs Super Bowl victory, after watching Patrick Mahomes throw bombs to rookie Xavier Worthy and a behind-the-back pass to Travis Kelce in the preseason. One day there will be a documentary about how the Chiefs didn’t allow the stacked teams of the 49ers, Ravens and Bills to win a Super Bowl. They’ll be very good again, but I’m not a fan of predictable brackets, so I’ll pass on a three-peat in Kansas City.
Instead of going with heavy favorites, I tabbed seven teams that didn’t make the postseason a year ago to advance this season. I also placed the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions in the big game—two teams that have never gone to the Super Bowl. But I’m not all about chaos and surprises. These are two of the best teams from 2023, and both improved in the offseason, especially in areas of weakness.
The Lions added help for edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, with the signings of D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport. But their biggest upgrades occurred in the secondary, with the draft selections of cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. I do worry about the lack of depth at wide receiver, but even if Jameson Williams has another quiet season, there are many playmakers in Detroit to assist No. 1 target Amon-Ra St. Brown.
But the Lions don’t have C.J. Stroud. I’m not sure if there’s a more accurate QB in the league than the one playing for Texans coach DeMeco Ryans. He’s a pocket assassin, maybe as good as Joe Burrow, and Stroud is only entering his second NFL season. And don’t worry about Stefon Diggs becoming a headache if he’s not getting his targets. Stroud knows how to spread the ball around, which he did as a rookie by getting Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz involved in games. Also, let’s not forget what Ryans did to improve the defense during his first year in Houston. They should be better after the splash signing of Danielle Hunter.
Bold prediction: The Ravens will miss the playoffs, even with the arrival of Derrick Henry. With seven new playoff teams in my field, I had to make some tough decisions on the top teams from a year ago. Baltimore appears to be a team set up for a down year because of its lack of depth at wide receiver and question marks on the offensive line, which lost three starters from 2023. The signing of Henry was supposed to be the missing piece for the Ravens, but then they created other roster holes.
It also doesn’t help that Henry is in his age-30 season, with plenty of wear and tear on his body from his productive seasons with the Tennessee Titans. Let’s not forget about the difficult schedule and the loss of former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, now the head coach of the Seahawks. The Ravens will contend for a playoff spot because they have Lamar Jackson, but it might fall apart in the end with all the obstacles mentioned above.
Matt Verderame
Super Bowl: Chiefs 30, Lions 24; Travis Kelce MVP
Season awards:
MVP: C.J. Stroud
OPOY: Derrick Henry
DPOY: Nick Bosa
OROY: Caleb Williams
DROY: Laiatu Latu
Comeback: Kirk Cousins
Coach: Shane Steichen
At this point, picking against the Chiefs is like picking against Tom Brady and the Patriots when they were at the peak of their powers. History says Kansas City isn’t going to three-peat, as no team has ever done it in the Super Bowl era. However, the Chiefs appear even better than a year ago, having added Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Xavier Worthy on the outside, while retaining all of their key players save for corner L’Jarius Sneed.
Meanwhile, the Lions are ready. Detroit should have gotten to the Super Bowl last year but fell short in the NFC title game, blowing a 17-point lead to the 49ers. Now with a revamped secondary, including veteran Carlton Davis III and rookie Terrion Arnold, Detroit has a better roster and some experience to go with it.
Individually, it’s hard to see C.J. Stroud not having a great year. Weather conditions will rarely be a factor, considering his home stadium and the overall schedule, and he’s surrounded by excellence. Bobby Slowik is one of the league’s rising stars at offensive coordinator, and the roster boasts receivers Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, tight end Dalton Schultz and running back Joe Mixon.
Finally, bet on the old back. Derrick Henry might be 30 years old, but years of relative inactivity to start his career with the Titans seems to have prolonged his productivity. And, in Baltimore, Henry is going to see the ball plenty in one of the league’s most run-heavy attacks. If he stays healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me if Henry runs for 1,500 yards and pushes for another rushing crown.
Bold prediction: The Commanders will be in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season. Washington did a nice job this offseason, landing a hopeful franchise quarterback in Jayden Daniels, along with giving him a new coach in Dan Quinn. While Quinn will largely oversee the defense, he’s an experienced hand who has been to a Super Bowl in this capacity. The Commanders also brought in a litany of high-IQ, talented defenders in linebackers Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, and edge rusher Dorance Armstrong. Don’t sleep on Washington
Greg Bishop
Super Bowl: Chiefs 35, Packers 31; Patrick Mahomes MVP
Season awards:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
OPOY: Jordan Love
DPOY: Aiden Hutchinson
OROY: Caleb Williams
DROY: Dallas Turner
Comeback: Joe Burrow
Coach: DeMeco Ryans
In the AFC, the Chiefs seem like one of the most obvious picks I can remember in recent years. They’re a level ahead, significantly, of any team behind them—unless, that is, the Texans emerge as their next rival. The hype around Houston is both deserved and a year ahead of when I believe they will contend for a title. This year, I see those teams playing in the AFC championship game, and much will be made about Mahomes in relation to the Texans. They could have drafted him No. 1 the year he came out, and he beat them in an epic playoff comeback in January 2020. The Chiefs will reinforce their conference supremacy here.
In the NFC, I see most of the best teams—non-Chiefs edition—in the NFL. For me, the Lions, 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers can all hold realistic championship expectations. All do, of course. But that’s where this half of the bracket gets messy. In a series of difficult-to-call decisions, I picked the Packers to upset the Lions—Jordan Love will have a HUGE season and this, right here, begins his legend. I picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers, because I believe Philadelphia’s late-season swoon in 2023 has largely masked how complete that roster is heading into ’24. And then I chose Love over Jalen Hurts in the conference championship. Even then, a disclaimer is required. It’s likely that if I sat down to do this exercise an hour from now, I’d see the NFC in a different light.
In this bracket, the Super Bowl has remarkable narrative symmetry baked into a historical twist. It will feature a rematch of Super Bowl I, Packers-Chiefs, that game the start of an era. This game will be, too. Kansas City only improved its offense this offseason, making it not only the obvious Super Bowl favorite but the first champion to three-peat in modern NFL history. Mahomes will join Tom Brady and Michael Jordan and those types, already, among the greatest-greatest athletes to ever compete. Kansas City stamps its dynasty. Fade to black.
Bold prediction: The Seattle Seahawks, the franchise that has settled into high-floor mediocrity for nearly a decade now, typically making the playoffs and sometimes winning one postseason game, will show what it’ll become under a new head coach who doubles as a defensive genius. Mike MacDonald is brilliant, in a schematic sense, and in Seattle, he has Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, Leonard Williams and plenty of solid starters to deploy. In this season—this is the bold prediction—Seattle will display its chops to challenge for the Super Bowl in 2025.
Michael Rosenberg
Super Bowl: Chiefs 31, Rams 27; Patrick Mahomes MVP
Season awards:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
OPOY: Jahmyr Gibbs
DPOY: Micah Parsons
OROY: Marvin Harrison Jr.
DROY: Mike Sainristil
Comeback: Aaron Rodgers
Coach: Sean McVay
Either the Chiefs or the Rams have appeared in each of the last six Super Bowls. So why not pick both?
Picking Patrick Mahomes’s team does not require an explanation. So why the Rams? This team feels like a classic “Why didn’t we see that coming?” contender: elite coach; elite quarterback; potentially two of the best receivers in the league (Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp if he is healthy); stability; strong player development; and a sneaky great offseason. The Rams took advantage of the Bills’ cap crunch by signing 29-year-old cornerback Tre’Davious White for just $8.5 million, and 27-year-old guard Jonah Jackson was available mostly because the Lions’ offensive line is too good for them to pay everybody. Jackson and White have been injured, but they are young and their upside is significant. There are also early signs that the Rams nailed their draft: linebacker Jared Verse, defensive tackle Braden Fiske, running back Blake Corum and receiver Jordan Whittington should all contribute as rookies.
The Rams are getting overlooked, in part, because most people seem to assume the 49ers will win the NFC West again. It reminds me of the assumptions about the Eagles last year. Like San Francisco, Philly was coming off a tight Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs and had the league’s most admired roster, led by elite offensive playmakers and a quarterback who became a surprise MVP candidate. We saw what happened to the Eagles. The Niners have a better head coach, but they also have a lot of potential distractions. The effects of Brandon Aiyuk’s hold-in could linger even with his contract extension signed. There will now be ample speculation that the team will move on from Deebo Samuel after this season. If Aiyuk needs time to ramp up and the offense suffers, that could depress Brock Purdy’s leverage in his looming extension talks. The Niners’ best offensive lineman, Trent Williams, is 36 and has held out all summer. And, of course, there is the psychological challenge of coming back from losing the Super Bowl in excruciating fashion. That’s a lot, even if you assume Christian McCaffrey will be healthy for the third consecutive season. Maybe Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch can navigate their way through it and win the next Super Bowl. But I’d bet against it.
Bold prediction: Mac Jones will fill in for an injured Trevor Lawrence and play well enough for another franchise to want him as a starter in 2025. I do not like predicting injuries; hopefully Lawrence is healthy all year and I’m wrong. But this prediction is about my belief in Jones. I think I might be the last person in the country who still believes in him. It’s kind of fun!
The past two years in New England were a debacle for Jones, but they were a debacle for everybody. I would argue that he suffered from the roster disintegration at the end of the Belichick era, and I would even take it a step further: Jones helped stave off the collapse. He had a very good rookie season, and his top receivers that year were Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne. I’m not sold on the Jaguars, but I am sold on Doug Pederson’s ability to play to a quarterback’s strengths.
Andrew Brandt
Super Bowl: Packers 34, Ravens 23; Jordan Love MVP
Season awards:
MVP: Jordan Love
OPOY: Christian McCaffrey
DPOY: Myles Garett
OROY: Jayden Daniels
DROY: Laiatu Latu
Comeback: Deshaun Watson
Coach: Matt LaFleur
I know, I know: My Packer bias is showing again. I am who I am, and 10 years working in that place has embedded me with the trait of looking at that team through rose-colored glasses. But, as is said: This time is different. The team is loaded with young talent, a quarterback who finished the season playing as well as any in football, and selective free-agent acquisitions—Josh Jacobs and Xavier McKinney—who are difference makers. After routing the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs, they were a couple of plays from beating the 49ers; this year they will not let that opportunity pass. The Packers, I believe, are one of four teams that will separate from the rest of the NFC, along with the Eagles, Lions and 49ers. The Cowboys, as usual, will have some moments that tantalize, but we know how their season will end. And, I believe, the NFC will finish where it starts next week: with the Eagles and Packers playing for the championship.
In the AFC, the Chiefs have found a way the past couple of years, whether through scintillating quarterback play or an opportunistic defense, but I believe that fortune will run out this year. No, I don’t think it has anything to do with Patrick Mahomes falling off or Travis Kelce getting old or Taylor Swift’s presence or whatever; simply that this is the year the best regular-season team in recent years—the Ravens—carry it through in the playoffs. It is their time. I also like the Browns’ chances more than most. This is a team that rode to the playoffs with several quarterbacks last year, including off-the-couch Joe Flacco. While Deshaun Watson’s performance has been middling, he doesn’t even have to do much with this team, other than stay healthy, to help them win. The defense beats people up, and the team is well-coached and stocked with talent.
This Super Bowl will push back against a pet peeve of mine, which is a lazy narrative that a team can’t pay top-of-market salaries to a quarterback and have a Super Bowl–caliber roster. They can, and they will.
Bold prediction: Every year, my bold predictions push back against what seem to be common narratives about teams’ chances for success in 2024, specifically a team where the narrative is that they will be really good and a team where the narrative is that they will be really bad.
The Los Angeles Chargers are getting a lot of love now with Jim Harbaugh at the helm and the juice that he has brought the franchise. Yes, he’s a winner, although a bit strange, with a proven record. But I don’t see it with this team; it has been stuck in a cycle of underperforming, shed both of its top receivers due to a cap crunch, and is aging at a few positions. I’m not buying the hype.
Conversely, the New York Giants are commonly thought to be a bottom-dweller this season, with their much-maligned quarterback and a less-than-inspiring peek behind the curtain in the offseason Hard Knocks (I’m not sure why they agreed to do that). But I think they will defy those narratives and be a good team. Not a contender, but decent and certainly far beyond the narrative of doom.
John Pluym
Super Bowl: Lions 28, Chiefs 27; Jared Goff MVP
Season awards:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
OPOY: Jahmyr Gibbs
DPOY: Micah Parsons
OROY: Caleb Williams
DROY: Dallas Turner
Comeback: Anthony Richardson
Coach: Dan Campbell
Is there any doubt that I’m all in on the Lions this season? I love what Campbell has built in Detroit. The Lions are tough and resilient, they play with a chip on their shoulders, and they’re ready to advance to their first Super Bowl. I know a lot of experts have questions about Goff delivering in big moments, but it wasn’t Goff who cost Detroit the NFC championship game against the 49ers. Defensively, the Lions needed to fix their secondary, and they did that by acquiring Carlton Davis III, along with draft picks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. They also added D.J. Reader to their defensive front, which should be one of the best in the NFL with Aiden Hutchinson and Alim McNeill.
And I’ll stick with my Lions theme with Gibbs winning Offensive Player of the Year. I think we’ll see a lot of him on the field after an impressive rookie season in 2023. I’m thinking at least 60 receptions, double-digit touchdowns and around 1,500 yards rushing. And, of course, Campbell should have been Coach of the Year in ’23, but he’s sure to win it this time after the Lions make it to their first Super Bowl.
As for my other award winners, I think Williams will have a big year for the Bears (I expect big things from Jayden Daniels, too), and win OROY, while Turner will lock down DROY with a double-digit sack season for the Minnesota Vikings under DC Brian Flores. Parsons is the best defensive player in the league and could be even better playing for Mike Zimmer, who is now the DC for the Cowboys. And, we didn’t get to see near enough of Richardson last year, who was out with injuries. But I expect him to have a huge year under Shane Steichen, who helped develop Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. Richardson should approach 4,000 yards passing, top 750 yards rushing and score double-digit touchdowns for the Indianapolis Colts. And Mahomes will continue his dominance and win his third league MVP. The Chiefs won’t three-peat but we’ll be treated to one of the best Super Bowls ever in New Orleans, with Mahomes almost delivering another epic performance.
Bold prediction: Shortly after the Chiefs drafted wide receiver Xavier Worthy with the No. 28 pick, general manager Brett Veach explained the team’s rationale with a simple response: “It’s a speed game.” Exactly. It was also a speed game in 1998, when Randy Moss scored a rookie record 17 receiving touchdowns. And Worthy is going to break that rookie record for touchdowns by a receiver, playing with Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Worthy is going to remind football fans of Tyreek Hill. Maybe not immediately, but there’s no doubt that Andy Reid will find ways to put him in positions to exploit a team’s defense and take down Moss’s record.
Mitch Goldich
Super Bowl: Ravens 27, Rams 23; Lamar Jackson MVP
Season awards:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
OPOY: Justin Jefferson
DPOY: Kyle Hamilton
OROY: Caleb Williams
DROY: Jared Verse
Comeback: Joe Burrow
Coach: Sean McVay
Earlier this summer, the MMQB staff predicted which teams would win the next five Super Bowls. I was one of only two people to pick the Ravens (which surprised me) and the only person to pick the Rams (which didn’t). I stand by my takes that these are stable franchises with good coaching staffs and front offices that’ll be in position to contend multiple times in the next five years. I like them both in the short term, too. I think the Ravens are bound to break through and win one of these years with Lamar Jackson, so why not in a season when they may catch the Chiefs running on fumes as they try to complete the three-peat, a season after getting back to the Super Bowl was already such a slog? Despite some departures on defense, the Ravens are still as dangerous as any team. If the Bills take a step back and the Texans’ ascent to perennial contender status doesn’t lead to the Promised Land quite yet, Baltimore can again be atop the AFC as the No. 1 seed.
In the NFC, I think the 49ers may be in for one of those rough Super Bowl–loser seasons which we’ve seen from plenty of great teams, when the injuries, contract issues and the difficulty of getting through another long season catch up to you. I have the Eagles, the 2023 version of that archetype, mostly righting the ship after last year’s collapse, though losing a home playoff game to a Rams team I think can peak at the right time. Los Angeles has the right mix of young players who’ve been injected into a talented and experienced core. In a rematch of last year’s dramatic wild-card game, this time Matthew Stafford will win in his former city, this time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
Bold prediction: Russell Wilson will win a game for a team that isn’t the Steelers. Predicting that Justin Fields will start the majority of the Steelers’ games this year is not exactly bold, so I’ll take it a step further. Last year so many teams were desperate for quarterback help, and that trend could easily continue.
Maybe a team will offer a late-round pick for an experienced plug-and-play option at the deadline. Maybe the Steelers will decide cut Wilson late in the year if having him on the bench isn’t worth the drama. But once Fields secures the job permanently, Wilson will move on and have an impact elsewhere, much like Joshua Dobbs last year and Baker Mayfield in 2022.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Predictions: Super Bowl LIX, Playoff Picks, Award Winners and More From MMQB Staff.
