The MVP of the 2023 regular season, barring an upset, will be Lamar Jackson. The best quarterback of the 2024 NFL Playoffs, according to advanced stats, is Brock Purdy.
Purdy’s highly efficient passing game made him the NFL’s top passer when it came to expected value this fall. While Kyle Shanahan’s offense and a roster loaded with healthy playmakers ensured he’d have a cushy landing for any drop-off, the second year quarterback still commanded a high-scoring, risk-averse passing game in a way Jimmy Garoppolo had been unable over the previous five seasons.
So where does that leave Jackson, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen and the rest of the league’s postseason quarterback, aside from behind him? Fortunately, we’ve got advanced stats to help us figure out a rough order.
Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
In order to accomodate 2024’s least utilized starter, we’ll drop the snap count threshold to 90 — exactly where Mason Rudolph landed in four games for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That leaves us with a crowded graph of 53 quarterbacks, most of whom ranged from mediocre to genuinely terrible in 2023.
That’s a lot to sort through. Let’s talk about the guys who are still playing football — but start with the ones who aren’t in order to temper expectations a little.
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The best quarterbacks not to make the playoffs in 2024
17: Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings: 0.111 EPA+CPOE composite. Overall rank among 53 qualified quarterbacks: 11th
16: Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.121, eighth overall
15: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.134, sixth overall
So here’s where you can take issue with the stats. EPA and CPOE heavily reward quarterbacks willing to take risks and make big throws downfield. It’s also easily fooled in a small sample size. That’s how two backups can slide into the top dozen quarterbacks when it comes to the composite.
Mullens was a disaster, showcasing a Bortles-ian knack for big throws, turnovers and empty yards in futile comeback efforts. Browning was better than anyone could have expected but was buoyed by a league-best completion rate behind short-range targets and guys who could pump up his numbers with the ball in their hands. 57.5 percent of his passing yards came after the catch.
As good as Cousins was when healthy, this is a reminder these numbers are malleable and not the full picture of a quarterback’s impact. Temper your reactions accordingly.
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Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns: 0.046 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: 29th
Flacco’s willingness to send it has been a boon for the Browns. His 8.7 average air yards per throw are his second-highest since 2015 when SIS began tracking that stat. It’s also led to eight interceptions in five games — a career-worst 3.9 percent interception rate that would be the worst in the NFL in 2023 if he’d played enough snaps to qualify for the rankings. That, combined with eight sacks and four fumbles, was enough to drop him to the bottom of the playoff rankings despite Cleveland’s success with him behind center.
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Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.080 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: 20th
Stafford’s rank since Week 12: fifth. Yeah, he’s fine.
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CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.095 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: 15th
Stroud since losing to the Carolina Panthers (heh) in Week 8: 5-2 record, 98.3 passer rating, 11 total touchdowns and six turnovers. His 0.115 composite ranks 10th in that stretch.
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Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.096 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: 14th
Mayfield was on the brink of the top 10 before a rib injury, then a leg injury, derailed his final two games. That may be why the Buccaneers only scored three field goals against the Panthers. Or maybe they’re just sorta flawed. Either way, they’re your NFC South champions and Mayfield is looking at a significant pay raise.
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Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.108 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: 12th
While Stafford and Stroud were trending upward, Goff has cultivated room for concern as 2023 wore on. He was responsible for more turnovers than touchdowns in four of his final eight games. The Lions went 5-3 anyway and should have been 6-2 if not for some truly inept officiating. Detroit’s probably fine … right?
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Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.111 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: 11th
Another quarterback who fluctuates wildly. Love is capable of greatness or looking like late stage Ryan Tannehill any given Sunday. In Weeks 14 and 15, when his Packers were falling out of the playoff race, his 0.024 EPA/play was 17th best in the NFL. In the three weeks since, his 0.396 EPA/play ranks second only to Lamar Jackson.
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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.115 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: 10th
Sure, some of Mahomes’ struggles can be attributed to a mostly garbage receiving corps whose 44 drops lead the NFL. And that group’s lack of deep threats have the two-time MVP’s average throw depth down to a career low 6.5. But Mahomes hasn’t been the magician he once was, even if those shorter passes have his bad throw rate at a career-low 13.3 percent.
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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.119 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: Ninth
I already mentioned these ranks are imperfect right? Anyway, Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs but enters 2024 with the most reliable receiving corps he’s ever brought to the postseason, even with Mark Andrews out. That’s a big deal; Baltimore’s receivers had nine total drops in Jackson’s last two playoff losses.
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Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.124 EPA+CPOE composite
Hurts has been roughly league average over the course of Philadelphia’s 1-5 skid. That’s not something the Eagles, with a defense that’s allowed more than 30 points per game over that stretch, can live with. Unless he can rise up — and AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith can get healthy quickly — the Eagles have no chance at defending their NFC title.
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Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.139 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: Fifth
Tagovailoa’s expected points added in every Dolphins game against an opponent with a winning record in 2023:
- vs. the Buffalo Bills, Week 4: -4.3, loss
- vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, Week 7: -5.5, loss
- vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, Week 9: -1.6, loss
- vs. the Dallas Cowboys, Week 16: 7.7, win
- vs. the Baltimore Ravens, Week 17: -3.5, loss
- vs. the Buffalo Bills, Week 18: 1.1, loss
Good luck, Miami.
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.145 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: Fourth
Allen only had three games all season where he didn’t throw an interception. But he also avoided negative plays thanks to a league-low 4.0 percent sack rate and added 15 rushing touchdowns to help his capacity for good outweigh the bad. He’s probably going to screw up at some point in the playoffs. Then he’s probably going to fix things with a truly stupid jaw-dropping play.
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Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.164 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: Third
Prescott has a legitimate MVP case after leading the league in touchdown passes and slicing his interception rate; after throwing 15 in 12 games last year he’s got nine through 17 in 2023-24. His 6.9 yards per scramble are his highest since 2020’s devastating ankle injury. But like Jackson, he’s got an underwhelming postseason record (2-4) and has plenty to prove in January.
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Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.175 EPA+CPOE composite
Overall rank: Second
Nearly 60 percent of Rudolph’s passing yardage has come after the catch. He’s let George Pickens keep him afloat and threw a ton of short passes in a rainstorm in order to get to a near-75 percent completion rate. This is all going according to Mike Tomlin’s plan and has pushed the Steelers to the playoffs. It does not mean he’s the second-best quarterback in the postseason, regardless of what the numbers tell us.
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Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.204 EPA+CPOE composite
Purdy has ruled the advanced stats all season, in part because his wideouts once again led the league in yards after catch (6.6 per reception). But while he only attempted 38 deep balls in 2023 — 23rd-most in the NFL — he completed 23 of them, tied for ninth-most in the league and the most accurate mark on throws of 20-plus yards this fall. He’s got more to offer than just the kind of game advanced stats love. He’s better than Jimmy Garoppolo was before him, and this should worry the hell out of the rest of the NFC.
