Smart people around the NFL will tell you the regular season starts on Thanksgiving.
At that point, there’s no more trying to figure out what works and what doesn’t. It’s time to accentuate the positive attributes, and minimize the negative.
Well, we’re rolling through Week 13 and the playoff picture is heating up while the weather outside is cooling off.
With that in mind, let’s look at how things stand as the holiday weekend concludes, with everything below updated up to the minute.
Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.
AFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 11–1, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 100%
With its win on Friday, Kansas City becomes the first team to clinch a playoff berth and can wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers next Sunday night.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
Record: 10–2, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
The Bills hammered the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night and clinched the AFC East. Now, Buffalo will head west to play the Los Angeles Rams before taking on the Lions in Detroit.
No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 9–3, first place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 98%
The Steelers gained over 500 yards, threw for more than 400 yards and scored 44 points on the woebegone Cincinnati Bengals, who can prepare for a long winter’s nap.
No. 4: Houston Texans
Record: 8–5, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 97%
The Texans took on the woeful, two-win Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday and needed to hold on late despite Trevor Lawrence leaving in the first half with a concussion. Still, Houston won and heads into the bye week in great shape.
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Record: 8–4, second place, AFC West
Playoff probability: 93%
Led by their defense, the Chargers beat the Atlanta Falcons despite playing on the East Coast on a short week. Los Angeles intercepted Kirk Cousins four times, including a pick-six for the game-winning score.
No. 6: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 8–5, second place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 97%
Playing at home on a short week, the Ravens couldn’t beat the Philadelphia Eagles, who were powered by another 100-yard game by Saquon Barkley. Baltimore now trails the Steelers by 1.5 games in the AFC North.
No. 7: Denver Broncos
Record: 7–5, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 70%
Denver has won two straight and will be looking for a third on Monday night at home against a feisty Cleveland Browns team led by Jameis Winston.
In the Hunt
Indianapolis Colts (6–7): It took until the final drive of the game, but the Colts beat the New England Patriots to stay in playoff contention.
Miami Dolphins (5–7): The Dolphins couldn’t win their fourth straight to get back to .500, losing in frigid Green Bay against the streaking Green Bay Packers.
Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): The Bengals technically remain in the hunt, but they’re finished after losing to the Steelers. Even winning out likely doesn’t do enough for Cincinnati.
NFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Detroit Lions
Record: 11–1, first place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 99%
With the Lions beating the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving, they’ve moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, and the same distance ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles in the race for home-field advantage.
No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 10–2, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 99%
Philadelphia had the marquee game in the late window Sunday, and the Eagles beat the powerful Ravens, holding Baltimore to 19 points while Barkley had another 100-yard day.
No. 3: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 7–5, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 38%
Seattle’s special teams did everything imaginable to lose to the New York Jets on Sunday, but managed to overcome the odds with Geno Smith throwing for 206 yards and a touchdown.
No. 4: Atlanta Falcons
Record: 6–6, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 63%
Atlanta came off its bye week and lost to the Chargers, with Cousins throwing four interceptions in a one-score loss. The Falcons are now tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers atop the NFC South.
No. 5: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 10–2, second place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff probability: 99%
Minnesota is cruising behind Sam Darnold, Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. The Vikings won another game, this time in comeback fashion over the Cardinals in the final minutes.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 9–3, third place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 97%
The Packers are a near lock to make the postseason. The question is whether they can track down the Lions in the NFC North after beating the warm-weather Dolphins on a cold Thanksgiving night.
No. 7: Washington Commanders
Record: 8–5, second place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 72%
Washington was reeling a bit after three consecutive losses, but the Commanders are still in good position after pounding the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
In the hunt
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6–6): After beating the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers the past two weeks, Tampa Bay is now tied for the NFC South lead.
Arizona Cardinals (6–6): The Cardinals lost their NFC West lead and with it, a playoff spot last week. They’re now a full game behind Seattle after coughing up a 13-point lead in Minnesota.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 13: Chiefs, Lions, Bills Control Division Races.
