Recency bias affects all kinds of decisions in life, and NFL drafts are no different. Just because you’re thought to be the drop-dead No. 1 prospect in a future draft when an NCAA season begins doesn’t mean you’ll stay there.
So it is in this particular mock draft with USC’s Caleb Williams, whose last two games has to have NFL evaluators shaking their heads and wondering just what’s going on down in Southern California.
In the first six weeks of USC’s 2023 season, Williams completed 120 of 168 passes for 1,836 yards, 22 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 144.2. In his last two games, Williams completed 47 of 72 passes for 455 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 70.1. This isn’t all Williams’ fault — protection and scheme have also been issues — but when you have a situation in which there’s another quarterback knocking on Williams’ door for that No. 1 spot, it can complicate the conversation.
In this case, that guy complicating the conversation is North Carolina’s Drake Maye. Maye has completed 160 of 270 passes this season for 2,249 yards, 14 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 102.5. While he does not possess Williams’ mind-bending skill set, and while a strong finish to the season should propel Williams back up to the top… well, right now, I’d bet there are quite a few NFL personnel people who are torn.
So, we have the Chicago Bears selecting Maye with the first overall pick, and hopefully trading Justin Fields to a team actually interested in maximizing his abilities. A good deal for all!
As for Williams? Well, his landing spot would certainly start all kinds of other conversations regarding the professional future of one Russell Carrington Wilson.
Here’s the rest of our first-round projections for this particular 2024 NFL mock draft.
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
2. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
3. Chicago Bears: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
4. Denver Broncos: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
5. New York Giants: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
6. New England Patriots: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
7. Green Bay Packers: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
8. Minnesota Vikings: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
9. Los Angeles Chargers: Jer'Zhan Newton, DI, Illinois
10. Tennessee Titans: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
11. New Orleans Saints: Kalen King, CB, Penn State
12. Las Vegas Raiders: Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami
13. Indianapolis Colts: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
14. Washington Commanders: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
15. Los Angeles Rams: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
16. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston Texans): Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
17. New York Jets: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
20. Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
21. Buffalo Bills: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
22. Dallas Cowboys: Leonard Taylor III, DI, Miami
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
24. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
25. Seattle Seahawks: Chris Braswell, EDGE, Alabama
26. Detroit Lions: Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota
27. Jacksonville Jaguars: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
28. Baltimore Ravens: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
29. Miami Dolphins: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
30. San Francisco 49ers: Josh Newton, CB, TCU
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
