With the 2024 NFL draft now five weeks away, we’re releasing the second edition of our first-round NFL mock draft (view the first version here).
This new mock draft explores the wild hypothetical question, “What happens if the Chicago Bears don’t draft Caleb Williams with the first overall pick?”
The Bears are widely expected to select Williams at No. 1, and that’s reflected in almost every mock draft on almost every website. But — just for fun — what if they don’t?
What if, for example, Chicago absolutely loves Jayden Daniels and decides to pick LSU’s quarterback over USC’s quarterback? The Bears are unlikely to trade out of the No. 1 overall pick, but could the Washington Commanders be convinced to move down from No. 2?
We know that Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton is a big fan of Caleb Williams, so much so that he predicted in 2022 that teams would intentionally tank for Williams, who he called a generational talent.
We also know that Broncos general manager George Paton scouted Williams in person last fall, and Denver’s staff met with the QB at the NFL combine. The Broncos also had their Western national scout on the field right at the line of scrimmage to watch all of Williams’ throws at his pro day earlier this week. All of that is due diligence, of course, but what if Denver had the opportunity to trade up for Williams in April?
The difficult part would be finding a way for the Commanders to get a high enough pick to still land one of the top four QBs in this year’s class. Because if the Broncos move up to No. 2, Washington would want a big reward for handing Williams over to Denver.
The Broncos could try to get creative and work the Arizona Cardinals into a three-team trade that would send pick No. 2 to Denver, pick No. 4 to Washington and a big asset (perhaps cornerback Pat Surtain?) to Arizona.
We know the Cardinals are open to listening to trade offers for the No. 4 pick, so even if a three-team trade is not realistic, perhaps the Cardinals could use picks acquired from the Broncos to move up from No. 12 back up to No. 4 to land a quarterback after initially moving down from No. 2.
It’s a wild, farfetched scenario, but it’s a fun scenario. So, let’s jump in!
1
Chicago Bears: QB Jayden Daniels
The Bears fall in love with Jayden Daniels and opt to draft him over Caleb Williams. Stranger things have happened, OK!
2
Denver Broncos: QB Caleb Williams (trade)
The Bears passing on Caleb Williams allows Sean Payton to trade up and select the QB he covets. Denver now has its Russell Wilson replacement.
3
New England Patriots: QB J.J. McCarthy
Another surprise — J.J. McCarthy goes off the board before Drake Maye. Some pundits have been suggesting Maye could drop to QB4, and at least one (biased) coach thinks McCarthy is QB1.
4
Washington Commanders: QB Drake Maye (trade)
After trading the second pick to the Broncos, the Commanders get back on the clock at pick No. 4 to land their franchise quarterback in Drake Maye. Everybody wins (except the Minnesota Vikings).
5
Los Angeles Chargers: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
The top four QBs in this year’s class going off the board in the first four picks is a dream scenario for the Chargers, who now land Marvin Harrison Jr. at pick No. 5.
6
New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers
The Giants benefit, too, because the Cardinals moving down left Harrison on the board for Los Angeles and Malik Nabers on the board for New York.
7
Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt
Barring a trade, this pick is starting to feel like a lock.
8
Atlanta Falcons: OLB Dallas Turner
Another pick that feels easy to predict — the Falcons improve their defense by landing the top pass rusher in this year’s class. After landing Kirk Cousins in free agency, Atlanta has to feel positive about the state of the roster.
9
Chicago Bears: WR Rome Odunze
The Bears set Daniels up for success with an amazing wide receiver room that now includes Rome Odunze, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen.
10
New York Jets: TE Brock Bowers
It’s hard to predict where Brock Bowers will fall in the draft, but he would undoubtedly be a good fit for an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.
11
Minnesota Vikings: CB Quinyon Mitchell
The Broncos and Commanders moving around at the top of the draft resulted in the top four quarterbacks going 1-2-3-4, leaving none of the top prospects on the board for Minnesota at No. 11. So the Vikings select Quinyon Mitchell, arguably the best cornerback in this year’s class.
12
Arizona Cardinals OLB Jared Verse (trade)
This hypothetical scenario has the Cardinals moving down to 12 as part of the trade that gave Denver pick No. 2 and Washington pick No. 4. Arizona also lands future picks, and they land one of the draft’s top pass rushers in Jared Verse.
13
Las Vegas Raiders: CB Terrion Arnold
With just one cornerback off the board, the Raiders are happy to land Terrion Arnold at this spot.
14
New Orleans Saints: OT Olu Fashanu
The Saints shore up their offensive line with Olu Fashanu, one of the top tackles in this year’s class.
15
Indianapolis Colts: CB Cooper DeJean
Indianapolis now has a secondary that includes Cooper DeJean, Kenny Moore and JuJu Brents. One of the best units in the league on paper.
16
Seattle Seahawks: OT Taliese Fuaga
Some have Taliese Fuaga ranked as the second-best tackle in this year’s class, so this is good value for Seattle.
17
Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Nate Wiggins
Nate Wiggins is the third cornerback off the board, which seems likely to happen in the actual draft.
18
Cincinnati Bengals: DL Byron Murphy
Byron Murphy falling to this point is good news for the Bengals, who could use some help on their defensive line.
19
Los Angeles Rams: OLB Laiatu Latu
The third pass rusher off the board, Laiatu Latu lands in Los Angeles after the Rams lost Aaron Donald to retirement.
20
Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Troy Fautanu
This year’s class is full of quality offensive tackles and Troy Fautanu might not fall this far, but he’d be a great fit for Pittsburgh.
21
Miami Dolphins: OT J.C. Latham
J.C. Latham is the fifth offensive tackle to go off the board, and he won’t be the last in the first round.
22
Philadelphia Eagles: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
The Eagles find a long-term answer at cornerback in Kool-Aid McKinstry, one of the best-named players in this year’s class.
23
Minnesota Vikings: QB Bo Nix
After missing out on the top four QBs at the top of the draft, the Vikings land Bo Nix here, which is a better option reaching for him at pick No. 11. He’ll compete with Sam Darnold for the starting job.
24
Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyler Guyton
Yet another offensive tackle off the board — Tyler Guyton lands in Dallas (and more tackles are still to come).
25
Green Bay Packers: IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson
The Packers find their center solution with Jackson Powers-Johnson, the top center in this year’s class.
26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OLB Chop Robinson
It’s hard to predict where Chop Robinson will land — he might go off the board higher than this — but he’s a good pick for the Bucs.
27
Arizona Cardinals: WR Brian Thomas
After adding Jared Verse to the defense earlier, Arizona now gives Kyler Murray a weapon in Brian Thomas.
28
Buffalo Bills: WR Adonai Mitchell
Adonai Mitchell joins Stefon Diggs and Curtis Samuel, giving Josh Allen an exciting trio of receivers in Buffalo.
29
Detroit Lions: DL Jer'Zhan Newton
Jer’Zhan Newton’s fall finally ends as Dan Campbell adds him to an already-talented defense in Detroit.
30
Baltimore Ravens: OT Amarius Mims
Baltimore adds some important protection for Lamar Jackson, landing Amarius Mims late in the first round.
31
San Francisco 49ers: OT Jordan Morgan
Jordan Morgan is the eighth offensive tackle to go off the board in the first round. It’s a good year to need an OT.
32
Kansas City Chiefs: WR Ladd McConkey
Even after signing Hollywood Brown in free agency, the Chiefs could still use more help at wide receiver. Enter: Ladd McConkey.
