It’s hard not to overreact to the NFL Scouting Combine.
While watching a player’s tape is step one in projecting what kind of a pro they’ll make, how can you ignore someone running a 4.21 40-yard dash or proving themselves nimble after measuring in at 6’8, 340 pounds?
Between the special performances at Lucas Oil Stadium, the comments made by coaches and general managers during press conferences, and the roster tinkering ahead of free agency, the stage is slowly being set for the 2024 NFL draft.
With the combine in the books and the draft less than eight weeks away, here’s our latest projection at what the first round could look like on April 25:
1
Chicago Bears (via Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams didn’t participate in much of anything at the combine, including the medical testing. While the hot takes are unsurprisingly flying in, the Bears shouldn’t — and probably won’t — overthink it. Williams has been the presumed No. 1 pick for a long time and there’s no reason to think things have changed.
2
Washington Commanders: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
There seems little doubt that the Commanders will look to use the No. 2 pick to add their quarterback of the future. The question seems to be whether it’ll be Maye or Jayden Daniels. For now, I’m still leaning toward Maye.
3
New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
As long as there’s no trades at the top, quarterbacks with the top three picks feels like a no-brainer in mock drafts. And if Williams and Maye are the first two off the board, Daniels is an easy one to pencil in at No. 3.
4
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Like the top quarterbacks, Harrison didn’t do much at the combine. He didn’t even speak to the media. The Cardinals would be foolish to let that impact their decision, though (they won’t). Harrison is the clear-cut top receiver in the draft class and Arizona needs weapons.
5
Los Angeles Chargers: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Fuaga screen drill. Excellent COD and twitch pic.twitter.com/GY4QWDeRGa
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) March 3, 2024
This might be a little bit of a surprise, but Fuaga seems to be a very popular player among coaches and scouts. The Oregon State tackle may be an especially great fit in Los Angeles where the Chargers are looking to add a powerful rushing attack to their offensive identity under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh. They already have a reliable left tackle for the future in Rashawn Slater, there’s no better prospect for playing right tackle than Fuaga.
6
New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
A fourth quarterback could come off the board here, but that’s quite a swing and the Giants could use help at other spots. New York especially needs improved weapons if it hopes to decide in 2024 if Daniel Jones is a lost cause. Nabers would provide an immediate big-play threat to a team that only saw Darius Slayton eclipse 600 receiving yards last season.
7
Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Player tracking data is revealing new insights about traditional combine drills.
Joe Alt showed explosiveness during his forty-yard dash, reaching the fastest speed during the first five yards of any offensive linemen over the last two combines (14.14 mph). pic.twitter.com/lNKrYnDFHF
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 3, 2024
The Titans hope they have a franchise quarterback in Will Levis and it sure looks like they have a stud guard in front of him with Peter Skoronski. Adding a 6’9 skyscraper of a left tackle in Alt would round out the left side for a rebuilt offense in Tennessee.
8
Atlanta Falcons: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
This is the post-combine Rome Odunze clip you should be talking about. Dude is a freak https://t.co/cmQV2IMjyq pic.twitter.com/EoZm8bUB1L
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) March 3, 2024
If the Falcons address their quarterback need before the draft (perhaps with a trade for Justin Fields), the next step would be to add some weapons to an offense that didn’t have much other than Bijan Robinson. In Odunze, they’d get a receiver that can do it all.
9
Chicago Bears: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Here you go:
DALLAS TURNER – SLOW MO🎥
40 1/2 inch vertical🚀 pic.twitter.com/4vsO1UdiiP
— StaceyDales (@StaceyDales) February 29, 2024
After taking the top quarterback of the class, the Bears somehow get their pick of the defensive prospects at No. 9 overall in this mock. Turner would add a much needed boost to a pass rush that finished second-to-last in sacks even after acquiring Montez Sweat at the trade deadline.
10
New York Jets: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
A solid 5.11u for Olumuyiwa Fashanu.
📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/MI8ku25UhX— NFL (@NFL) March 3, 2024
Offensive line is priority one, two, and three for the Jets, who will likely have three new starting linemen in 2024. If the team hopes to make the most of its small Aaron Rodgers window, Fashanu would give them a polished tackle who is more ready than most prospects to step in and start as a rookie.
11
Minnesota Vikings: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Laiatu Latu @NFL combine ✅ pic.twitter.com/vVwibK4kqV
— Coach Ed (@DlineCoachEd) February 29, 2024
The Vikings reportedly hope to retain Kirk Cousins as their starting quarterback, if possible. If they manage to do so, they can turn their attention to the pass rush, where they appear likely to lose Danielle Hunter to free agency. It won’t be easy to replace the four-time Pro Bowler, but Latu is a good place to start.
12
Denver Broncos: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
J.J. McCarthy pic.twitter.com/vaJqJhg3qV
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) March 2, 2024
The way Ian Rapoport of NFL Network talked about McCarthy over the weekend makes it seem like McCarthy may not even be on the board outside of the top 10 picks. There are plenty of quarterback-needy teams in the top half of the first round, but maybe none more so than the Broncos, who will an absurd $85 million in dead money next year just to be done with Russell Wilson.
13
Las Vegas Raiders: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Those bags offended Byron Murphy earlier pic.twitter.com/FwxTllTvHG
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) February 29, 2024
With four quarterbacks off the board, maybe the Raiders will take a fifth. But that feels a little premature. Instead, they get the best defensive tackle in the draft class to upgrade a front that was subpar against the run and didn’t provide much interior penetration to complement Maxx Crosby.
14
New Orleans Saints: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The @FSUFootball boys are putting on a show in the 40.
DL Jared Verse putting up a 4.59u.
📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/YqrXROSO8E— NFL (@NFL) February 29, 2024
The Saints can only rely on Cameron Jordan for so long. Even with the soon-to-be-35-year-old veteran and rising talent Carl Granderson, New Orleans still finished with the fourth fewest sacks in the NFL. An infusion of talent at defensive end is a must and Verse is just what the doctor ordered.
15
Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Terrion Arnold backpedal and 45-degree break pic.twitter.com/MuR8anX6la
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) March 1, 2024
The Colts took a few stabs at cornerback in the 2023 draft and have a couple promising young talents in JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones. That’s not enough to feel comfortable at the position, though. Adding another young defensive back — in this case, the first one off the board — would be a huge boost to a defense that allowed the fifth most points in the NFL last season.
16
Seattle Seahawks: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Two Seahawks tight ends, Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson, are set to leave in free agency and Will Dissly is a good not great player at the position. Seattle has bigger needs than tight end, but so does just about every team and it’s hard to fathom Bowers dropping much further than this.
17
Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell "has another gear that not many people have," according to @MoveTheSticks.
Mitchell reached the two fastest speeds by any cornerback during the back pedal and transition 45 degree reaction drill (20.87 & 21.27 mph).#NFLCombine x @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/LH6OUl7q4Q
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 1, 2024
There’s a strong chance Mitchell won’t be on the board when the Jaguars are picking. But between the Toledo cornerback and players like Nate Wiggins, Jer’Zhan Newton, and Troy Fautanu, it’s hard to envision Jacksonville getting stuck in a scenario where there isn’t an incredibly talented prospect on the board at No. 17.
The Jaguars haven’t been subtle about their plan to upgrade their cornerback room. Mitchell would fit the bill.
18
Cincinnati Bengals: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Big guys, quick feet 👟👟
📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/QWgTTIcHhc— NFL (@NFL) March 3, 2024
Right tackle looks like it’ll be the biggest hole on the Bengals’ roster if Jonah Williams leaves as a free agent and signs elsewhere. Some have suggested that Fautanu could kick inside to guard, but he looks more than capable at starting at right tackle immediately.
19
Los Angeles Rams: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Oh my, Nate Wiggins. 4.29u. Wow.
📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/sgCVDjfADE— NFL (@NFL) March 1, 2024
The Rams need to add talent at cornerback, regardless if impending free agent Ahkello Witherspoon is brought back or not. Wiggins, who ran a 4.28 in the 40-yard dash, would be a huge boost.
20
Pittsburgh Steelers: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Bo Nix pic.twitter.com/mEZb7q6YxK
— Michael 🇲🇽 (@RespectMyCos) March 3, 2024
There are some indications that the Steelers will build around Kenny Pickett. But there are also reports that Pittsburgh is poking around the quarterback market. If the team decides it’s time to look elsewhere at the position, Nix has showed more than enough growth during his lengthy collegiate career to warrant a spot in the first round.
21
Miami Dolphins: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
The Dolphins need to rebuild their offensive line as guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams both appear set to hit free agency. Barton was a two-time All-ACC selection as a left tackle at Duke, but could start right away at guard for Miami.
22
Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
When the 2024 season begins, the Eagles’ starting duo of cornerbacks, Darius Slay and James Bradberry, will be 33 and 31, respectively. Philadelphia’s 2023 fourth-round pick Kelee Ringo and undrafted addition Eli Ricks could develop into reliable players, but the Eagles need to keep adding talented players to their secondary. Not many are as talented as DeJean.
23
Houston Texans (via Browns): Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
It sure looks like the Texans nailed their draft a year ago when they picked the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year with back-to-back picks. Now Houston has to get work in the trenches.
24
Dallas Cowboys: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Amarius Mims people 9’3” pic.twitter.com/mIRPn7fEjm
— StaceyDales (@StaceyDales) March 3, 2024
At 6’8, 340 pounds with an 87-inch wingspan, Mims is a mountain of a man with unbelievable potential. Yet he also has a dearth of experience that’ll make him one of the riskiest picks of the draft. This deep into the first round, it’s worth the risk.
25
Green Bay Packers: J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama
Regardless if the Packers find a way to keep David Bakhtiari, the three-time Pro Bowler has missed 38 games in the last three seasons. Green Bay has no choice but to look to the future at offensive tackle.
26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
.@LSUfootball WR Brian Thomas Jr. was rolling with a 4.34u
📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Af0zYsjvzz— NFL (@NFL) March 2, 2024
Mike Evans reportedly isn’t content to take a hometown discount to finish his career in Tampa Bay. What was once a strength of the roster now looks like a spot that needs work and Thomas is a great place to start.
27
Arizona Cardinals (via Texans): Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
4.49u for DL Chop Robinson. 🔥
Absolutely flying.
📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/9UjjsGhQvZ— NFL (@NFL) February 29, 2024
Considering the raw talent and developmental talent (Robinson is still just 21), it’d be quite the coup for the Cardinals if he’s still on the board this late in the first round. Arizona finished the 2023 season with the third fewest sacks in the NFL.
28
Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
only 2 WRs at the combine since 2015 to:
…run 4.35 or less in the 40
…measure at least 6’2” tall
…at a weight of at least 205DK Metcalf
Adonai Mitchellpic.twitter.com/gL9Z6xJMb1— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 2, 2024
The Bills need to find another receiver to complement Stefon Diggs, especially if Gabe Davis leaves in free agency. Fortunately for them, there’s a ton of talent at the position and there will certainly be great receivers to choose from at No. 28 overall. Mitchell has a chance to be special.
29
Detroit Lions: Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington
Bralen Trice @nfl Combine ✅ pic.twitter.com/1fYmtzN3fG
— Coach Ed (@DlineCoachEd) February 29, 2024
Aidan Hutchinson finished the 2023 season with 11.5 sacks, but no other Lions player had more than five. Trice could be the book-end that Hutchinson needs to reach his full potential.
30
Baltimore Ravens: Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
The Ravens seem to find a way to consistently harass quarterbacks, even with cheap mercenaries like Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy. In Robinson, they’d get a versatile piece who can combine with Justin Madubuike (assuming he’s back) to be a real pain for opposing offenses.
31
San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Jordan Morgan wraps up the 40 with an unofficial time of 5.05 and a 1.70 10 yard split 🔥
📺 #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/M6DCPCS4kP
— Arizona Football (@ArizonaFBall) March 3, 2024
The 49ers have a star offensive lineman in Trent Williams, but he’ll turn 36 this summer and the performance of the rest of the line was pretty underwhelming. Morgan would give the team a starter on the right side and possibly a future replacement for Williams at left tackle.
32
Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
OFFICIAL: 4.21
XAVIER WORTHY HOLDS THE NEW 40-YARD DASH RECORD pic.twitter.com/IrXf3WyemB
— NFL (@NFL) March 2, 2024
It’s typically not a great idea to launch a player into the first round after a combine performance. But a 4.21 40-yard dash feels like it warrants a reaction. The Chiefs’ receivers were lacking in 2023 and it’s a bit scary to imagine what Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes could do with the fastest player in combine history.
