University of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is poised to hear his name called in the upper half of Round 1 in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he certainly has his share of detractors.
McCarthy played one season at the esteemed IMG Academy prep school, being a highly touted recruit to Michigan before graduating. He ranked No. 25 in the nation among all recruits.
Height: 6-foot-2 1/2
Weight: 219 pounds
40 time: N/A
An undeniable pedigree on his side, McCarthy enters the NFL conversation fresh off a national championship victory in which he had little to take credit for, though the system under Jim Harbaugh did him no favors from a statistical perspective.
McCarthy would go on to wrap his Wolverines career as as a First-Team All-Big Ten selection. He has the Michigan record for career completion percentage (67.7) and best interception percentage (1.54).
Table: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (2021-23)
*includes postseason/bowl games (stats from Sports Reference)
Pros
- Deceiving athletic traits and ability to throw on the move — squares his shoulders to throw while running and still puts requisite zip on the ball
- Tends to be a sound decision maker — understands when to take chances as a passer
- Delivers a catchable ball when he can plant his feet — McCarthy’s best throw is a high-point timing route around 20 yards
- Enough arm strength to make all of the throws most of the time but relies more on accuracy than raw arm talent
- Gritty runner who looks to maximize the most out of each carry without getting too greedy — second-effort success stands out on tape
- A proven winner — 27-1 record at a high-level program and went 8-0 at IMG Academy
- Unselfish but plays with moxie — team-first leader who didn’t put up huge stats in a run-heavy offense
- Has the intangibles and coachability to become a plus starter
- Untapped potential — room to grow as a passer, particularly from the presnap diagnostic side
Cons
- Functionally strong enough arm but doesn’t jump off the screen by any measure — sturdy throwing platform dictates his downfield success
- Occasional accuracy issues most commonly show up when trying to hit a late-to-uncover receiver in motion — completion rate is partly inflated because of high-precision play calling
- Timing needs to improve in terms of consistency — has plenty of tape with NFL-quality anticipation, but you’ll find too many unforgivable misses on timing-based throws over the middle
- Lacks prototypical thickness in his frame but has beefed up in the last few years
- Generally sound footwork but can get sloppy when forced to make a quick throw
- Throws caution to the wind as a runner, which could come back to haunt him in the NFL vs. elite athletes
Fantasy football outlook
It’s not hard to argue that McCarthy should have stayed in school for more growth, but it likely would have killed his draft stock given the upheaval within the program. He’ll be at his best in a run-minded West Coast system that implements play-action passing at a higher rate than most teams … think of a Sean McVay flavor of the offensive design.
There’s no doubt about McCarthy’s long-term upside, but he comes with noteworthy concerns and potential pitfalls if the drafting team does a poor job of coaching up his flaws. McCarthy’s legs will improve his fantasy offerings early on. The best-case scenario of his long-range fantasy ceiling as a pro will be something like a Kirk Cousins — reliable yet unspectacular starter with the right pieces around him. Be wary if he is chosen by a team that asks him to shoulder the offense from the get-go.
Likely suitors include Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Las Vegas, and the New York Giants. The Vikings would be the ideal immediate fit in fantasy.
Truly a wild-card prospect — with similar traits to Gardner Minshew -_ McCarthy’s tape is polarizing. He has some NFL-caliber moments that make you want to root for him while also drive you pull your hair out over easily avoidable errors. Can he become an elite starter for fantasy? That seems improbable. If we look back at this draft class in 20 years and he has authored a Canton-bound career, it will be in spite of his talent deficiencies.
