All 32 teams across the NFL have officially begun their training camps in preparation for the 2024 season.
Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are also preparing for the 2024 campaign but setting the odds for all available futures markets. Before the season starts, it's a good idea for us to place a few futures bets where we think we find some value.
One of those available awards markets is Comeback Player of the Year.
It's worth noting the definition of the award has slightly changed this offseason. Previously, the definition of the award left room for winners to be someone who had a bad previous season and followed it up with a strong bounce-back campaign. Joe Flacco was an example of the latter, winning the award in 2023 despite not suffering any kind of injury in 2022. The previous year, he played five games for the New York Jets, but it was simply poor play that kept him playing more.
Geno Smith won the award in 2022 for similar reasons.
Now, the award is going to focus on players who missed time the previous season due to injury, illness, or other circumstances. The Associated Press released a statement to further define the criteria for the award:
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,”
With that in mind, let's take a look at the list of odds to win Comeback Player of the Year in 2024.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
All odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook
- Joe Burrow +200
- Aaron Rodgers +200
- Kirk Cousins +600
- Anthony Richardson +700
- Nick Chubb +1300
- Daniel Jones +1500
- J.K. Dobbins +2500
- Deshaun Watson +3300
- Justin Herbert +3300
- Joey Bosa +4500
- Kyler Murray +4500
- Tank Dell +5000
- Sam Darnold +6000
- T.J. Hockenson +10000
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson +10000
- Mark Andrews +10000
- Christian Gonzalez +10000
- Keaton Mitchell +10000
Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers Set as Co-Favorites
The top of the odds list is dominated by quarterbacks who are returning from injury this year, including Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers who are co-favorites at +200 (33.33% implied probability).
Kirk Cousins and Anthony Richardson are next on the odds list at +600 and +700 respectively. Nick Chubb is the first non-quarterback on the list at +1300 odds. He played in just two games last season before tearing his MCL and damaging his ACL.
Based on the new definition of the award, there are some players on the odds list we can eliminate from consideration. The most notable is Sam Darnold at 60-1, who was healthy for the 2023 season but served as the backup for Brock Purdy with the San Francisco 49ers. He did not miss any time due to injury or illness.
Kyler Murray is another strange name on the odds list. He missed the first half of the 2023 campaign and finished ninth in Comeback Player of the Year voting. Since he was healthy and played in the second half of the season, what exactly is he "coming back" from?
Based on the new definition of the award, I think we can feel safe the winner of the award this year will be one of Burrow, Rodgers, Richardson, Cousins, or Daniel Jones.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds (Aaron Rodgers Set as Co-Favorite).
