The 2023 NBA Draft is a genuinely challenging class to predict but that isn’t going to stop us from trying.
At this point in the season, there aren’t many players who have separated themselves as “can’t miss” prospects. Similarly, many players have clumped together in a similar tier and it is hard to differentiate much between many of those names.
If you’re into uncertainty and like the thrill of the unexpected, this is a fun group of players to evaluate because anything can happen and lots can (and will) change. But for those who want something more clear-cut, this process may become more frustrating.
Our mock draft looks different than some others around the industry and we expect that to remain true until the draft happens. Lots of factors will weigh into how teams evaluate these prospects and so that makes predictions even more hard to pinpoint than usual. While there is a lot we have learned, there is lots more to learn as well.
Unless noted otherwise, all data outside of the NCAA was pulled from our friends at Cerebro Sports — you can create a free account to evaluate player performance across all levels globally.
Our order was determined based on expected wins averaged out from ESPN, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. The teams outside the top eight in each conference were considered lottery squads. Trades were pulled from this database at RealGM.
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1
Detroit Pistons: Ja'Kobe Walter
TEAM: Baylor
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-5
DRAFT AGE: 19.8
Baylor’s Ja’Kobe Walter, who led Link Academy to win the GEICO Nationals tournament for the first time in program history, is someone who projects well at the next level because of his scalability as a movement shooter and defender.
The freshman wing has had no trouble adjusting to college and is making an impact on spot-up possessions and off-ball screens. Walter has made half of his corner 3-pointers, per CBB Analytics. He ranks near the top of all freshmen in the catch-all metric that measures offensive impact, O-BPR, via Evan Miya.
The Pistons have tremendously struggled in a lot of ways, including shooting the ball, so it makes sense to search for floor-spacing wings who can open up the offense. He isn’t a prototypical candidate at No. 1 overall but at the same time, he is perhaps the most trustworthy option who could star in his role.
2
San Antonio Spurs: Nikola Topic
TEAM: KK Mega Basket (Serbia)
CLASS: International
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-7
DRAFT AGE: 18.9
There still isn’t a clear No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft at this point, but Serbia’s Nikola Topic is emerging as a potential candidate. He was named MVP of the FIBA Under-18 European Championships earlier this summer.
At just 18 years old, the 6-foot-7 lead guard is already among the few most prolific scorers out of the pick-and-roll in the Adriatic League. Although his athleticism does not pop and his jumper isn’t there yet, he often finishes efficiently at the rim. He is also one of the leaders in assists created in a transition offense.
For a team like the Spurs that still must find a floor general, Topic makes a ton of sense due to the productivity he has already shown out of ball screens at his age.
3
Washington Wizards: Isaiah Collier
TEAM: USC
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Point
HEIGHT: 6-3
DRAFT AGE: 19.7
USC’s Isaiah Collier, who won the Naismith Prep and Morgan Wootten National Player of the Year, was named co-MVP of the McDonald’s All-American Game.
Collier is a playmaker who can contribute well with the ball in his hands, especially when getting downhill with physicality in transition.
He has shown an ability to create for himself when off the dribble, averaging 3.9 unassisted 2-pointers made per game. That ranks in the 97th percentile so far this season, per CBB Analytics.
While there are valid concerns about his defensive role and he is currently in a shooting slump both beyond the arc and at the free-throw line, it makes sense for a team like the Wizards to take a home run swing on someone like Collier.
4
Utah Jazz: Zaccharie Risacher
TEAM: JL Bourg (France)
CLASS: International
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-8
DRAFT AGE: 19.2
France’s Zaccharie Risacher is another promising international prospect who could hear his name called early in the 2023 NBA Draft.
The 6-foot-8 forward is shooting the ball extremely well for JL Bourg of late, connecting on 46.9 percent of his 3-pointers on slightly above three attempts per game. He has played especially well during the EuroCup for his club and his catch-and-shoot jumpers are falling.
If he can remain consistent with his play, Risacher would make a lot of sense for a team looking to add a shooter with legitimate defensive versatility.
5
Charlotte Hornets: Stephon Castle
TEAM: Connecticut
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 19.7
UConn’s Stephon Castle, who missed time to start his freshman campaign due to a knee injury, was used more on-ball when he was in high school than he is seeing in his current role.
Now more of a connector, he is finding ways to stuff the stat sheet in many different ways. Even though it is still a very small sample size, he is also making an impact on winning. When he is on the court, per Evan Miya, the Huskies have outscored opponents by the highest adjusted team efficiency margin among all D-I players.
There is a smoothness to Castle’s game and he has the developmental upside to increase his draft stock with more time on the court.
6
Portland Trail Blazers: Ron Holland
TEAM: Ignite
CLASS: G League
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-8
DRAFT AGE: 18.9
After a slow start to the season, while recording the highest usage rate on the team, Ron Holland is starting to find more of a rhythm in the G League.
Although he is still far too turnover-prone (he recorded 11 in a single game earlier this season), he recently recorded six consecutive games with at least 20 points. He also had seven or more rebounds in five of those performances as well. Meanwhile, twice this month, he managed five steals in a game.
Holland hasn’t quite popped like the projected No. 1 pick that he was initially expected to become. As he answers questions about his feel for the game, his athleticism and motor still make him an interesting choice in the early half of the lottery.
7
Memphis Grizzlies: Alexandre Sarr
TEAM: Perth (Australia)
CLASS: International
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 7-1
DRAFT AGE: 19.2
France’s Alexandre Sarr built a strong case for himself early in the pre-draft process during scrimmages against the G League Ignite.
Sarr has since impressed for the Perth Wildcats in Australia’s NBL, often showcasing his defensive abilities as a rim protector. Despite coming off the bench, he is one of the league’s leaders in blocks per game. Sarr is also attempting more than two attempts per game from beyond the arc, which makes him a true stretch big.
If he continues to show flashes with the ball in his hands, he could continue to create momentum as a candidate at No. 1 overall in this class.
8
Chicago Bulls: Matas Buzelis
TEAM: Ignite
CLASS: G League
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-11
DRAFT AGE: 19.7
After missing significant time due to an ankle injury to start the season, Matas Buzelis has found a bit more flow in the G League.
Buzelis originally started his tenure with the Ignite playing low minutes off the bench but looks like a versatile contributor since moving into the starting five. He recently had two consecutive games scoring at least 20 points while also adding multiple blocks and steals in both victories.
He also hit a game-winning shot to secure a 22-point comeback for the Ignite. Buzelis drives and slashes well for someone his height and if he remains on the court contributing at a high level, he has a strong candidacy for an early selection in this class.
9
San Antonio Spurs (via TOR): Cody Williams
TEAM: Colorado
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-8
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
Cody Williams, the younger brother of Thunder forward Jalen Williams, is currently out for an extended period with an injured wrist.
But when he was healthy, he stood out as a 6-foot-8 freshman for Colorado. Williams was tough to stop in transition and scored very well near the basket. While he wasn’t very effective in the pick-and-roll, he was at least given the opportunity to play with the ball in his hands. Depending on how he looks on the court upon his return, several teams will likely have him high on their big boards.
10
Miami Heat: Rob Dillingham
TEAM: Kentucky
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Combo
HEIGHT: 6-2
DRAFT AGE: 19.5
Rob Dillingham dominated for Team CP3 at 2022 Nike EYBL Kentucky, averaging a tournament-high 22.4 points per game while shooting 13-of-29 (44.8 percent) on 3-pointers. He was arguably the toughest player to guard at the high school level and he also played well for Overtime Elite.
Meanwhile, his game has translated fairly well to the NCAA. Thriving in his role as a sixth man off the bench, his ball-handling is perhaps the best in the class and he is currently shooting 46.5 percent on 3-pointers. The former Overtime Elite standout is also known as perhaps the hardest worker on the team for the Wildcats.
11
Atlanta Hawks: Carlton Carrington
TEAM: Pittsburgh
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-5
DRAFT AGE: 18.9
Carlton Carrington, also known as Bub, is one freshman who has wildly exceeded his preseason expectations. The guard is averaging 14.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game for Pittsburgh.
No player in Division-I men’s college basketball has assisted any other individual scorer more than Carrington has assisted his teammate Blake Hinson, per CBB Analytics. Carrington is currently the overall leader in assisting non-corner 3-pointers. He also leads all freshmen in unassisted 3-pointers (13) made so far this season.
The biggest criticism is that he struggles to finish near the basket, per Bart Torvik, shooting just 7-of-15 (46.7 percent) in that zone. He hasn’t attempted a dunk and he is inefficient at scoring in transition. But he offers enough skill as a creator for himself and others that he’s still a great prospect.
12
Portland Trail Blazers (via GSW): Aaron Bradshaw
TEAM: Kentucky
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 7-0
DRAFT AGE: 20.1
Aaron Bradshaw was a standout AAU performer for NJ Scholars and was named Nike EYBL Defensive MVP in Orlando and Louisville. But he missed the beginning of his freshman campaign at Kentucky due to a foot injury that required surgery.
He has since displayed a strong showing once he returned to the court. During his first game in the starting lineup for the Wildcats, for example, he had 17 points (7-of-12 FG, 1-of-2 3P) with 11 rebounds and three blocks. If he can continue connecting on his catch-and-shoot jumpers when playing against tougher competition, the 7-footer has the makings of a lottery pick.
13
Phoenix Suns: Donovan Clingan
TEAM: Connecticut
CLASS: Sophomore
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 7-2
DRAFT AGE: 20.3
After winning a national championship last season, UConn’s Donovan Clingan was one of the most intriguing NBA prospects who did not declare for the draft. The big man then injured his foot in September and didn’t immediately make the “leap” many expected to see from him as a full-time starter. But he remains one of the most impactful players in the nation, per Evan Miya, and he helped secure a victory against Gonzaga with a dominant all-around performance.
14
Sacramento Kings: Kobe Johnson
TEAM: USC
CLASS: Junior
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 21.4
USC’s Kobe Johnson, who is the younger brother of Hawks forward Jalen Johnson, is another player who has improved his draft stock quite a bit since the season began. He is a do-it-all contributor and defensive playmaker who has managed to record at least three or more steals in five of his eight games so far.
15
Indiana Pacers: Ryan Dunn
TEAM: Virginia
CLASS: Sophomore
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-8
DRAFT AGE: 21.5
Any team looking for help on the defensive end of the floor is going to have Virginia’s Ryan Dunn high on their draft board.
Even if it’s currently unclear what he can contribute to an offense, his productivity as a defender makes it hard to ignore him as arguably the best among all players in college. Opponents are currently just 9-of-48 when he is credited as the nearest defender, per Synergy.
Dunn must show more on offense if he is going to get picked in the lottery, but as of right now, his elite trajectory on the other end of the court makes him worth monitoring closely.
16
Cleveland Cavaliers: Reed Sheppard
TEAM: Kentucky
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Point
HEIGHT: 6-3
DRAFT AGE: 20.1
Perhaps no one has exceeded preseason expectations more than Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard. The freshman currently has one of the highest effective field goal percentages among all D-I players, per KenPom. He is statistically having the best season of any freshman in the nation, via Bart Torvik and Evan Miya. Even if his eventual role in the NBA is unclear, with his shooting touch and impressive hands as a defender, he has shown he is at least worth a gamble in the first round.
17
New Orleans Pelicans (via LAL): Tyrese Proctor
TEAM: Duke
CLASS: Sophomore
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-5
DRAFT AGE: 20.2
Duke’s Tyrese Proctor is currently dealing with an ankle injury and the program announced they will be “very cautious” about his return. But even before he was sidelined, there wasn’t a tremendous amount to get excited about when watching Proctor’s progression. Although his playmaking is a plus, his overall year-over-year development was lacking.
18
Houston Rockets (via BKN): Justin Edwards
TEAM: Kentucky
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-7
DRAFT AGE: 20.5
Before the season began, McDonald’s All-American and consensus five-star recruit Justin Edwards was considered a likely candidate as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Edwards was named Defensive MVP at the 2022 Nike EYBL Indy circuit.
He led all players in defensive statistical impact (DSI) and, per Cerebro, averaged 3.0 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. Edwards also averaged 3.0 steals per game at the 2022 Nike EYBL Peach Jam tournament.
But during his time at Kentucky thus far, he has simply not played well whatsoever. As his minutes continue to decline, it has become harder to project Edwards as a lottery pick. Maybe a team is willing to bet on him eventually finding his rhythm once again in the future, though.
19
New Orleans Pelicans: Melvin Ajinca
TEAM: Saint-Quentin (France)
CLASS: International
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-7
DRAFT AGE: 20.0
France’s Melvin Ajinca was a breakout star during the 2023 FIBA Under-19 Basketball World Cup. He has stood out as someone who scores well when using off-ball screens and he has no dip on his catch-and-shoot jumper. His cousin, Alexis Ajinca, played for the Pelicans between 2013 and 2018.
20
New York Knicks (via DAL): Tyler Smith
TEAM: Ignite
CLASS: G League
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 6-10
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
One of the players who has improved his draft stock the most so far this season is Tyler Smith. He is a stretch big who is shooting 36.2 percent on 3-pointers, now attempting more than three attempts from beyond the arc per game off the bench in the G League. Nearly every team in the NBA could use a player of his archetype.
21
Orlando Magic: Wooga Poplar
TEAM: Miami
CLASS: Junior
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-5
DRAFT AGE: 21.5
Miami’s Wooga Poplar has come into his own as a dynamic and versatile contributor for the Hurricanes. He is averaging 16.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game while nearly reaching the elusive 50-40-90 shooting splits as well. Poplar has increased his frequency as the ball handler in pick-and-roll sets so far this season and that has helped him increase his value.
22
New York Knicks: D.J. Wagner
TEAM: Kentucky
CLASS: Freshman
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-3
DRAFT AGE: 19.1
D.J. Wagner is a three-time New Jersey Gatorade Player of the Year who was named co-MVP during the 2023 McDonald’s All-American Game. He was also named MVP of the 2022 Nike EYBL Orlando circuit, averaging 23.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game.
But he is another player who has failed to meet the projections that many wanted to see from him. He needs to hit his 3-pointers at an efficient clip if he is going to contribute at the guard position but he hasn’t done that yet. If he has more games like he did during the upset victory over UNC, however, he can climb his way back into potential lottery consideration.
23
Oklahoma City Thunder (via HOU): Kevin McCullar Jr.
TEAM: Kansas
CLASS: Senior
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 23.3
Kevin McCullar is someone who can step on the court and immediately earn minutes for his defensive ability. While he may not have as defined of a role on offense, he will find ways to contribute no matter his team. McCullar is a good rebounder for his size and position and has made strides as a playmaker as well.
24
Denver Nuggets: Terrence Shannon Jr.
TEAM: Illinois
CLASS: Senior
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 23.9
Any team looking to find an instant contributor is going to seriously scout Illinois senior Terrence Shannon. He is athletic and considered very mature, which will help him in the pre-draft process.
Shannon is a high-effort player who chases rebounds, does not give up on plays and can also guard the perimeter. He stays cool under pressure and he leads all players in 3-pointers made with ten seconds or fewer left on the shot clock, per CBB Analytics, shooting 12-of-16 (75.0 percent) on these chances.
One of the best players in the nation, you also won’t find many who can score as well as Shannon when in transition.
25
Milwaukee Bucks: Oso Ighodaro
TEAM: Marquette
CLASS: Senior
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-9
DRAFT AGE: 23.0
Marquette’s Oso Ighodaro is a unique prospect who projects as one of the best passers in the class at the forward position. He effectively plays as a point center for the Golden Eagles and he is a great playmaker out of the short roll. Ighodaro is a bit undersized so developing a jump shot would help his game a lot but his floater and his hook shot are both effective.
26
Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Izan Almansa
TEAM: Ignite
CLASS: G League
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-9
DRAFT AGE: 19.1
Spanish big man Izan Almansa is already one of the most accomplished prospects in this class.
Almansa was named Most Valuable Player at the 2022 FIBA U17 World Cup, averaging 27.0 points, 16.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.7 steals and 2.2 blocks per 40 minutes for Spain. He was also named MVP at the FIBA U18 European Championships in 2022.
This summer, he once again impressed for Spain, winning MVP and a gold medal during the FIBA U19 World Cup in Hungary.
While he would benefit from a more diversified shot portfolio rather than simply trying to score everything near the basket, has earned a look based on his productivity across various levels of the game.
27
Indiana Pacers (via OKC): Bobi Klintman
TEAM: Cairns (Australia)
CLASS: International
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-10
DRAFT AGE: 21.3
After a solid freshman year at Wake Forest, Sweden’s Bobi Klintman turned pro while also maintaining his NBA draft eligibility. He has had a very encouraging stretch recently, hitting his jumpers more often than usual. Although he isn’t the most consistent player in Australia’s NBL, he scores well in the open court.
28
Minnesota Timberwolves: Dalton Knecht
TEAM: Tennessee
CLASS: Senior
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 23.2
After transferring to play for the Vols for his final year of collegiate eligibility, former Northern Colorado star Dalton Knecht has impressed. Although he is currently in a scoring slump, he managed to drop 37 points against North Carolina earlier this season. He projects well as a movement shooter and, per Synergy, leads his conference in points scored using off-ball screens.
29
Boston Celtics: Kyle Filipowski
TEAM: Duke
CLASS: Sophomore
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 6-11
DRAFT AGE: 20.6
Duke sophomore big Kyle Filipowski is still a strong scorer and rebounder but it is his passing that has made him most impressive during his second collegiate season. He is averaging nearly twice as many assists per minute and few turnovers, too. Flip recently recorded eight assists, just two shy of a triple-double.
30
Philadelphia 76ers: Adem Bona
TEAM: UCLA
CLASS: Sophomore
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 6-10
DRAFT AGE: 21.3
Any front office that wants to bolster their frontcourt will have to have UCLA’s Adem Bona on its radar. The reigning Pac-12 Rookie of the Year, who made Pac-12 All-Defense as a freshman, is an excellent rim protector. Opponents are 0-for-12 when he is considered the nearest defender at the rim, per Synergy.
