With 24 runners in ‘The Race That Stops a Nation’, one way to help find the winner is by using the key Melbourne Cup trends and stats. With that in mind, we’ve listed these below – including 90% of the last 20 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher and 70% being placed in the top three last time out.
Melbourne Cup Trends and Stats For 2024 Flemington Race
See below the key Melbourne Cup trends that have built up over the last 20 runnings of the famous Flemington Park horse racing contest.
You can use these horse racing stats to apply to the 2024 Melbourne Cup runners – which include the Willie Mullins pair of Vauban and Absurde, who both ran in the race in 2023 – to find the horses that best fit the profiles of past winners.
- 20/20 – Won Group class race before
- 18/20 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
- 17/20 – Won 8 or fewer races
- 17/20 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
- 17/20 – Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (4), Caulfield (5) or Moonee Valley (6) last time
- 16/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 15/20 – Aged 5 or older
- 14/20 –Top 3 finish last time out
- 14/20 – Ran within the last 2 weeks
- 14/20 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
- 14/20 – Ran at Flemington Park before (8 won there)
- 13/20 – Won by a AUS-based horse
- 12/20 – Aged 6 or older
- 11/20 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 11/20 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
- 10/20 – Won by a 6 year-old
- 9/20 – Won over 1m7f or further before
- 9/20 – Favourites placed
- 6/20 – Winners trained in Europe (2 Irish, 1 UK, 1 German, 2 France)
- 5/20 – Won just once before
- 5/20 – Won last time out
- 5/20 – Ran in a previous Melbourne Cup
- 3/20 – Favourites
- 3/20 – English/Irish winners
- 2/20 – French-trained winners
- 6 European-trained winners since 2010
- The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 18/1
- 5 of the last 10 winners carried 8-5 or less
- All of the last 10 winners carried 9-1 or less
- The last 4 winners carried between 8-10 and 9-1
Melbourne Cup 2024 Details and Date?
📅Date: Tuesday 5th November 2024
⌚Time: 4:00am (GMT)
🏇Racecourse: Flemington (2m)
💰Winning Purse: £2,352,941
📺 TV: Sky Sports Racing
Full Melbourne Cup prize money breakdown for 2024 – from 1st to 12th, plus what the jockey and trainer win.
Just Three Winning Melbourne Cup Favourites In The Last 20 Runnings
The horse that has been sent off as the Melbourne Cup favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK in recent years haven’t fared that well.
We’ve seen just three winning market leaders of the Melbourne Cup in the last 20 renewals and none since Fiorente in 2013.
Meaning the last ten Flemington favourites have all fallen by the wayside – including last year’s jolly Vauban, who could only manage 14th but is back for more in 2024.
This year’s Melbourne Cup market leader looks a shootout between Vauban and Buckaroo, but a lot can change in the betting before the race on Tuesday 5th November.
18 Of The Last 20 Melbourne Cup Winners Came From Stalls 5 Or Higher
Despite being run over one of the longer trips on the flat (2m), the Melbourne Cup draw has played its part in finding the winner over the last 20 years.
This is backed up with a massive 90% of the last 20 winners hailing from stalls 5 or higher – last year’s winner Without A Fight took the prize from stall 16.
One theory on this draw stat is that being drawn low (1-4) means horses are more likely to get boxed in with most of the field running to their right.
Regardless, it’s still a very healthy Melbourne Cup trend that has built up over the years – this year’s horses from stalls 1-4 are the Hollie Doyle-ridden Sea King, Athabascan, Warp Speed and Zardozi.
70% Of The Last 20 Winners Ran In The Last Two Weeks and Finished In The Top Three
Next up is to look for horses who raced in the last few weeks and that also finished in the top three last time out – both these Melbourne Cup trends boast a 70% return in the last 20 runnings.
Of course, it’s always wise to give the ‘days last ran’ a bit to wiggle room as the race date can move by a few days each year – it’s always staged on the first Tuesday of November.
Looking at the horses that ran 20+ days ago, surprisingly there are only three – Vauban, Absurde and Mostly Cloudy.
Then the horses that finished in the top three last time out are – Vauban, Buckaroo, Sharp ‘N’ Smart, Land Legend, Absurde, Athabascan, Okita Soushi, Onesmoothoperator, Sea King and Interpretation.
Six European Melbourne Cup Winners Since 2010
Finally, even though this race is, of course, staged in Australia in more recent years the lucrative prize of £2,352,941 has attracted many runners from all over the world – most notably Europe.
These raiders have done well too – with six European-trained winners since 2010, which include two from Ireland and France, plus one each from the UK and Germany.
This year, Vauban, Absurde, Sea King and Onesmoothoperator will be flying the European flag.
Melbourne Cup Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2023 – WITHOUT A FIGHT (7/1)
- 2022 – GOLD TRIP (20/1)
- 2021 – VERRY ELLEEGANT (17/1)
- 2020 – TWILIGHT PAYMENT (25/1)
- 2019 – VOW AND DECLARE (10/1)
- 2018 – CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
- 2017 – REKINDLING (14/1)
- 2016 – ALMANDIN (10/1)
- 2015 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
- 2014 – PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
