The strength of schedule for receivers lumps wide receivers and tight ends together since each team uses the positions differently. While overall averages are interesting, no position is as sensitive to individual matchups as are receivers facing particular defensive backs. This makes the analysis less accurate than that for running backs and quarterbacks. The best receiver for an offense invariably draws the best coverage defender, if not more than one on most plays.
The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, and that creates 64 “different defensive matchups” depending on where the game is played.
SEE ALSO: Quarterbacks | Running Backs
The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses for receivers last year is at the bottom of this page.
Total Points
For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense according to their schedule using the averages allowed by those defenses in 2023 .
Weekly Play
Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoffs. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22.
Best schedule strength
DJ Moore/Keenan Allen (CHI) – The Bears feature the top quarterback from the 2024 draft and that throws risk into the equation even for an elite talent. DJ Moore was new last year and succeeded but now has the young quarterback and will share with Keenan Allen. Caleb Williams still needs to prove his talent, but he has two competent receivers enjoying the lightest schedule strength in the NFL.
Marvin Harrison Jr./Trey McBride (ARI) – The Arizona receivers also face the same best-case schedule for 2024, but unlike the Bears, their quarterback is the veteran, and the wideout is the top-drafted in his position this year. Trey McBride was a breakout second-year tight end who returns to the same quarterback, coaches and scheme. Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a very advantageous position with marginal competition from the other Cardinal wideouts and also faces the softest schedule.
Amon-Ra St. Brown/Sam LaPorta (DET) – This is an interesting development. The Lions return the same scheme and players including Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was No. 2 in receptions last year (119) and Sam LaPorta who was the top fantasy tight end despite being a rookie. Now, all that greatness from 2024 is pitted against the third-best schedule strength. The only marginal downside is that there are no light matchups left after Week 13.
Garrett Wilson/Mike Williams (NYJ) – Can it finally be the Jets’ year? Garrett Wilson shined regardless of the otherwise mediocrity at quarterback last season. He gets, assumedly, a healthy Aaron Rodgers and a lighter schedule to boost his 2024 potential. Mike Williams has to learn a new offense and return from his ACL tear but at least face a lighter slate of defensive venues. The rookie Malachi Corley could also figure in if Williams is slow to return to form.
Worst schedule strength
Courtland Sutton/Josh Reynolds (DEN) – As if the coin flip between Bo Nix and Zach Wilson wasn’t scary enough, the Broncos are looking at the cruelest schedule for receivers with just two light matchups. They have a stretch during the season where eight games contain six bad venues and no good ones.
Christian Kirk/Brian Thomas (JAC) – The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley but replaced him with Brian Thomas Jr., which should be a wash, if only eventually. The only saving grace to their rough outlook with eight poor matchups is that they had one of the worst schedules last year, and 2024 may be bad, but it is slightly better than 2023.
Joshua Palmer/Quentin Johnston (LAC) – It was already scary enough losing Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. And bringing in a far more conservative offensive scheme that seeks to run more and pass less. But the Chargers have one of the weakest pair of starters going against one of the worst schedule strengths which include only three lighter matchups all year.
George Pickens/Van Jefferson/Roman Wilson (PIT) – The Steelers imported the Falcons offense when they hired OC Arthur Smith who is fresh from the crash-and-burn of the Atlanta passing game the last couple of seasons. Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields learn that new run-heavy scheme with sketchy receivers outside of George Pickens and face an NFL-worst nine games facing the toughest venues.
2024 weekly grid
Fantasy points allowed per game to WRs
These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for wide receivers and tight ends.
