The Valero Texas Open was founded in 1922 and represents the third longest-running event on the PGA Tour. It has been held in the greater San Antonio area since its inception, and the tournament has moved around to a bunch of different courses before finding its current home at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in 2009.
The event has rotated through a number of different schedule spots as well before settling on the week before The Masters. This will be the final opportunity for all non-qualified players to earn a ticket to Augusta, and seven of the last ten winners of this event were not already qualified for the year’s first major. While many of the star’s biggest names will be resting up before The Masters, Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, and Rickie Fowler, amongst others, will all be in attendance in San Antonio.
While Hatton, Matsuyama, and Conners are already in the field for next week and surely using this event as a tune-up, Fowler, as well as many others, must win this event to find themselves in The Masters. The final chance for players to punch their tickets to Augusta is sure to present plenty of excitement over the weekend in Texas.
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Valero Texas Open: Course Preview
TPC San Antonio
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio was designed in 2009 by Greg Norman, and it plays as a par 72, tipping out to nearly 7,500 yards on the scorecard. The course features a fairly balanced distribution of short to long par threes and par fours, as well as an extremely stout group of par fives, with three measuring over 590 yards and featuring under a 30% birdie rate.
Like nearly all courses in Texas, conditions are the name of the game, and the winning score will most certainly be determined by the amount of water the course receives leading into and in tournament week, as well as the amount of wind present. Between 2011 and 2017, as well as last year, the winning score has been between eight and 14 under. Yet between 2018 and 2020, under softer and more benign conditions, the winning score was between 17 and 20 under par.
It remains to be seen what shape the Oaks Course will take this week. Still, I will most definitely be looking to identify those who can keep the ball in play off the tee, are solid overall iron players, who also possess an above-average short game, and take advantage of par fives.
Valero Texas Open Key Stats
- Good Drive Percentage
- Par Five Scoring
- Sand Save Percentage
Valero Texas Open Picks: Outright Winner
Davis Riley (+3400) (Bet $100 to collect $3,500) FanDuel has the best odds for Davis Riley this week
Davis Riley has done just about everything but claim victory at the PGA Tour level, and he finally finds himself in a weak enough field that should be prime for the taking. Prior to a group stage exit at the WGC Match Play, Riley finished top-20 at both the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational, both longer Bermuda courses that place an emphasis on mid to long iron play and keeping the ball in play off the tee.
The University of Alabama alumnus remains one of the best overall iron players in this field and checks nearly every box I am looking for this week from a statistical standpoint. The 27-year-old finally has the putter going and is trending in the right direction in all the categories I am focusing on this week.
As we can see above, the range of odds for Davis Riley is huge this week, and you can win an additional $1300 if he is triumphant on Sunday, just by betting at FanDuel. Always compare the odds of our picks, via the Odds Comparison Grid.
Robby Shelton (+10000) (Bet $100 to collect $10,100) Get the best odds for this pick at FanDuel
Robby Shelton possesses the rare combination of a downright elite short game and approach play. The 27-year-old is the only player in this field to rank top-10 in overall iron play, overall short game, mid to long iron play, and sand save percentage. I love capitalizing on the value of players that are coming off a missed cut yet gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, and that was the case with Robby Shelton at the Valspar Championship. His ball striking actually improved in both categories, yet we are still able to catch a big number on a largely unproven talent.
Shelton has shown flashes, and he already has four Korn Ferry Tour wins to his name, proving that he is a proven Sunday closer. While he has not yet been in a position to claim victory at this level, Shelton has been scratching the surface with three top-25 finishes already this season, including a sixth at the American Express. I’ll take my chances and hope Shelton’s elite iron play helps him find his way into the mix come Sunday afternoon in Texas.
This might be the biggest disparity you see on the odds board this week, as you can win an extra $3000 just by placing your $100 wager on Robby Shelton at FanDuel rather than Caesars. This is why it is essential you compare odds every week.
