The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.
The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.
