We are getting closer, folks. With training camps opening in just over two weeks, football is very nearly back.
After an offseason full of signings, trades, draft picks, and all the drama in between, we are less than a month away from live football. With that, I give you my latest power rankings ahead of training camp later this month.
32
Arizona Cardinals
Is it April yet? With no Kyler Murray, a roster that lacks star power, and a head coach who got hired after allowing the Chiefs to dance all over his defense, the 2023 Cardinals are DOA.
31
Las Vegas Raiders
You’d be hard-pressed to name five Raiders defenders, and I’ll spot you Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. Their defense is poor, their head coach is a sitting duck who, if not for Mark Davis still paying Jon Gruden, would likely have been fired, and they moved backwards at quarterback. In a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, along with Sean Payton now in Denver, the Raiders are going to hold a top five draft pick in 2024. Please, God, don’t let them touch Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield. What could possibly go wrong except literally everything? The Bucs have arguably the worst head coach-QB duo in the NFL. They still have their long-term stars- Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Vita Vea, Lavonte David- but the rest of the roster leaves a lot to be desired. A regime change is almost certainly coming in 2024.
29
Los Angeles Rams
We know very little about the Rams besides the fact that Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp are good. That is it. If Stafford looks like himself again, then the Rams have their three stars and then 50 dudes. It’s astonishing how many rookies are going to be starting and/or play key roles on the Rams roster this year, as well as just how much the roster drops off after their three big names. This is what happens, though, when you take the stars and scrubs approach for winning. They won a Super Bowl, and they would absolutely do it all again, but we are seeing the aftermath of it play out.
28
Tennessee Titans
Their floor will be raised because Mike Vrabel is that good of a coach, but he doesn’t have a ton of talent at his disposal. Outside of Treylon Burks, there’s a lot of C+ receivers that will have to play above their skill level, and the offense is far too dependent on Derrick Henry. The offensive line will have three new starters, as well. While the unit should be better, Nicholas Petit-Frere is suspended for the first six games. The Titans defensive front is great (first in DVOA), but their pass defense is abysmal (28th in DVOA). Tennessee will either stay afloat in the Wildcard race long enough to feel relevant or have Will Levis starting by Week 8.
27
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have a clear vision and a ton of potential to be great in the next 1-2 years. If Anthony Richardson even comes close to reaching his potential, he is the most athletic quarterback we’ve ever seen. In Shane Steichen’s offense, he’ll have the ability to learn on the job while improving and using his legs to his advantage. Shaq Leonard and Zaire Franklin make up a great linebacker unit, the Colts just need Leonard to stay healthy. They drafted very well, too, taking cornerbacks Julius Brents from Kansas State and Darius Rush from South Carolina, as well as receiver Josh Downs from North Carolina. If the offensive line can improve from last season (which isn’t a high bar), the Colts could be a tough out every week.
26
New England Patriots
Are the Patriots the most boring team in the league? Mac Jones is the walking embodiment of white bread, and the offense doesn’t have anyone that scares opposing defenses in the pass game. JuJu Smith-Schuster is fine, but he’s a No. 2 or No. 3, not a go-to receiver. They also seem very keen on vastly overpaying C+ receivers, as they just did with DeVante Parker. The defense will be solid, especially after adding Christian Gonzalez in the draft. They’ll stay above water for the majority of the season, but 7-10 is calling their name.
25
Houston Texans
The Texans are similar to the Colts in that they have a clear vision and a solid roster, but this is a developmental year for their young quarterback. The one position I worry about is their lack of talent at receiver. Not having a proven go-to guy for C.J. Stroud is a little alarming, but the rest of the roster is solid. The offensive line features two good tackles, the secondary got better by adding Jimmy Ward, and the running backs will be good enough for Stroud to lean on while he learns. I love the hiring of DeMeco Ryans as head coach, and we’ll see how competitive they are in year one.
24
Green Bay Packers
It all comes down to how good Jordan Love is. The rest of the roster is good. They drafted two tight ends to give Love some safety blankets to pair with Christian Watson, as well as Aaron Jones out of the backfield. Their defense was a top 10 unit in terms of DVOA against the pass, but their run defense was the second worst in the league. Stopping the run + Jordan Love being at least average will keep Green Bay in the hunt. If Love shrinks and teams run all over the Packers, it’ll be a long year.
23
Denver Broncos
Much like Green Bay, it all depends on the quarterback. Russell Wilson fell off a cliff in 2022, but how much of that was him and how much of it was Nathaniel Hackett? While the Broncos went 5-12 in 2022, nine of their losses were by one score, and they failed to score 20 points in eight of them. Payton’s presence will almost certainly make Denver a more competitive team but it all comes down to how Wilson performs.
22
Washington Commanders
Welcome to the third installment of “If their QB is good, they’ll be good.” Sam Howell is one of the players I’m looking forward to watching most. He slipped in the draft because of a slightly underwhelming season at North Carolina in which all of his good players from the year prior were gone. He has a good deep ball, a great cast of weapons around him, and a good defense that the offense can lean on. The Commanders could be this year’s Lions.
21
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are only this high because Kirk Cousins will always keep a team in the 7-8 win neighborhood, and Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the league. The defense routinely got carved up like a Christmas ham last season, and they’ve moved on from several veterans. They also hired Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator, which is a welcome change from Ed Donatell whose defense was about as intimidating as a box of kittens. The offense will be good enough to keep the Vikings in just about every game, and the defense can only get better from last season. Will they win 11 one-score games again? No. But they will still be viable.
20
Atlanta Falcons
I love the Falcons roster- I don’t love their quarterback. However they utilize Bijan Robinson, he will almost certainly be an instant difference maker, and everyone will benefit from his presence. Drake London had a promising rookie year, Kyle Pitts has yet to tap into his full potential. The defense added Jesse Bates at safety to complete a defensive backfield that also features Jeff Okudah, Richie Grant, and A.J. Terrell. Atlanta plays in a division that’s completely up in the air, and if all goes well, they could host a playoff game. If all goes poorly, they’ll be searching for a quarterback.
19
New York Giants
I think the Giants felt trapped. It would have been difficult defending moving off Daniel Jones after winning a playoff game, but that feels like their ceiling with Jones. With a more difficult schedule in 2023, regression is likely.
18
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields is expected to make a Jalen Hurts type leap in 2023. He has a solid ensemble of weapons, lead by the newly-acquired D.J. Moore, and an offensive line that got better in the draft and free agency. The Bears also added talent in the middle of their defense, signing both T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds. Jaquan Brisker showed a ton of promise at safety, as well. In a division that no longer features Aaron Rodgers, who’s to say the Bears couldn’t surprise everyone and go from worst to first for the fourth time in the 21st century.
17
New Orleans Saints
There are several teams that have solid rosters with a questionable quarterback. The Saints have a good quarterback with a roster I don’t love. Chris Olave looked good as a rookie, but outside of him and Alvin Kamara, what else do the Saints have in terms of weapons? The Saints defense was top five in weighted DVOA, but 22nd in variance, meaning they weren’t a consistent unit. The defense is also aging and top-heavy. Like Atlanta, they benefit from playing in a weak division, but they don’t have a high ceiling.
16
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have the best coach in the division in Frank Reich, and the roster has come together nicely, as well. Their defense is full of young talent, including Jaycee Horn, Derrick Brown, and Brian Burns. And, of course, their No. 1 overall pick, Bryce Young, who has reportedly marveled throughout the offseason. The coaching staff that Reich has built is as good as it gets when it comes to developing young talent, as well as remaining competitive in the present. Ejiro Evero coming over from Denver as defensive coordinator may be the best hire of the offseason, and Josh McCown is a great addition to the staff to aide the development of Bryce Young. With the combination of the roster and coaching staff, Carolina could be a sneaky winner of the NFC South.
15
Cleveland Browns
*Audible sigh* it all depends on the quarterback. Don’t worry, I’m tired of talking about Deshaun Watson, too. The Browns have all the talent in the world. Myles Garrett is one of the best edge rushers in football, their secondary is good at every spot, and their skill positions offensively have a lot to offer. Acquiring Elijah Moore gives them a good trio of receivers with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, and the run game with Nick Chubb should still be strong as ever. Playing in a stacked AFC North will be the biggest obstacle for Cleveland. If Deshaun Watson looks like the player we became accustomed to seeing in Houston, they’ll have as good a chance as any team in the division.
14
Detroit Lions
The Lions became the darlings of the NFL in 2023. After a second half of the season that saw the Lions come within a game of making the playoffs, Detroit opened the checkbook this offseason. They signed cornerbacks Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Mosely and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson to refine a secondary that was one of the worst in football. With one of the best offensive lines in football, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs should have a good year, and Jared Goff will have time to spread the ball out. The Lions are the favorites to win the NFC North, and if they continue the momentum from 2022, they can make that a reality.
13
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have two of the best receivers in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa took full advantage of that duo in 2022. Tua was amongst the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL, finishing second in DVOA (min. 200 attempts). It’s the defense, though, that I’m most excited about. The addition of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator will work wonders for Miami, as will the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey. Christian Wilkins and Jaelen Phillips will also be players to watch in this new scheme. Wilkins is a guy who can win and get pressure on the interior and open up opportunities for Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Miami would be higher if they didn’t play in a division with the Bills and Jets, whose quarterbacks I trust more. Regardless, Miami, at the very least, will be in contention for a playoff spot.
12
Seattle Seahawks
I don’t know if Geno Smith can replicate what he did in 2022, but the talent around him can’t be ignored. Along with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Seattle added Jaxon Smith-Njigba to their receiving core. Defensively, they selected Devon Witherspoon to play opposite of Tariq Woolen. In a weak NFC West, the Seahawks should be playoff contenders, once again.
11
Dallas Cowboys
The last time Dallas made the playoffs in three consecutive years was 1994-96. The Cowboys roster says they should be right where they were last season- amongst the best teams in the NFC. However, Mike McCarthy’s outdated offense being installed and run by Brian Schottenheimer is a red flag. We can hope Tony Pollard rebounds from the injury, but there’s no guarantee of that. On paper, overall, the Cowboys improved. From a coaching perspective, they got worse. If they fail to meet expectations, it could be ashes to ashes for Mike McCarthy.
10
Los Angeles Chargers
I’m hesitant to drink the Chargers Kool-Aid again. Yes, Justin Herbert is a top five quarterback, but Brandon Staley makes me hold my breath. The biggest achilles heel for the Chargers has been health. Rashawn Slater, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, J.C. Jackson, Joey Bosa — all missed significant time with injury in 2022. If they remain healthy, and if Kellen Moore turns out to be an upgrade over Joe Lombardi, Los Angeles will be a playoff team. However, as proven before, those are far from guarantees.
9
Baltimore Ravens
It was a chaotic offseason for the Ravens. After a long saga in which Lamar Jackson requested a trade, the former MVP ended up re-signing with Baltimore. The Ravens replaced offensive coordinator Greg Roman with Todd Monken to transition into a more pro-style offense. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr garnered a lot of attention, but the drafting of Zay Flowers is the bigger deal, in my opinion. The front seven is going to be good. Michael Pierce and Justin Madubuike will be forces in the trenches, while Roquan Smith roams the middle and Odafe Oweh comes off the edge. The big question with Baltimore, similar to the Chargers, is health. Can they remain healthy as the season goes on? If not, we could see more of what we’ve seen the last two seasons in terms of how they’ve finished.
8
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers won seven of their last nine games to go 9-8 in 2022 and upgraded all over the field. The offensive line should be improved after adding Issac Seumalo at guard and drafting Broderick Jones at tackle. The secondary is deeper than it was last season, as well, and the front seven added Markus Golden and Nick Herbig to put behind T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. If Kenny Pickett takes a respectable step forward, and everyone else lives up to their expectations, Pittsburgh could win the AFC North.
7
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars could be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They play in the easiest division in the conference, have a budding superstar under center, and a genius play-caller at head coach. Adding Calvin Ridley gives them a good trio of receivers with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, and the defense showed steps forward in the back half of 2022. Don’t be surprised if the Jags are playing in the AFC Championship Game this winter.
6
New York Jets
The Jets were a seven-win team with Mike White and Zach Wilson under center. Adding Aaron Rodgers obviously makes the Jets exponentially better. The offense finished 29th in weighted DVOA, while the defense was third. Even if the defense doesn’t quite replicate their dominance from last season, the offense will almighty certainly make up for that. The Jets have expectations for the first time in a long time. For their sake, let’s hope this goes better than the last time a former Packers quarterback took the reins.
5
San Francisco 49ers
Their roster is as close to perfect as you can get, but it feels like we will always go into the season unsure of who the long-term answer at quarterback will be for the 49ers. We know about their usual suspects — Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Talanoa Hufanga- the team is loaded with All-Pros, and they added Javon Hargrave. If they figure out the quarterback position, they can win the Super Bowl.
4
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a good roster, but questionable play calling on both sides of the ball. Ken Dorsey’s all or nothing approach hurt the Bills a ton in 2022, and Josh Allen was more turnover-prone because of it. Defensively, Buffalo has been in flux ever since those 13 seconds against Kansas City in the Divisional Round. When healthy, they have the talent on defense. Von Miller, the safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White at cornerback- all are great, and all missed time last season (three of which missed significant time). Buffalo added Leonard Floyd to get more of an edge presence, which is a welcomed move. What’s evident is that they need a 1b option in the offense to complement Stefon Diggs. Can Dalton Kincaid be that guy? If Buffalo stays healthy, and Kincaid lives up to expectations, the Bills will be in the Super Bowl picture once again. If Josh Allen is expected to play 1 vs. 11, they’ll have another early vacation.
3
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have made it to consecutive AFC Championship Games, and very nearly appeared in back-to-back Super Bowls. While they lost some notable names in Jesse Bates and Vonn Bell, the rest of the roster more than makes up for their departures. D.J. Reader and Germaine Pratt are two of the best at their positions, and Trey Hendrickson is one of the most underrated edge rushers in football. The offense will still be firing on all cylinders with all the weapons they have. As long as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are there, this team will have Super Bowl expectations.
2
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles return almost everyone from a team that went to the Super Bowl last season. And those that have departed have been immediately replaced. Javon Hargrave left for San Francisco, and the Eagles drafted Jalen Carter. C.J. Gardner-Johnson signed with the Lions, and Philadelphia signed Terrell Edmunds. The offense is still full of talent, and even with changes at both coordinator spots, that talent more than outweighs their departures. I fully expect the Eagles to remain in the Super Bowl mix.
1
Kansas City Chiefs
Last season was supposed to be a transition year for the Chiefs. Instead, they made their third Super Bowl appearance since 2019 and won their second championship of the Patrick Mahomes era. Even with Eric Bieniemy leaving, as long as Andy Reid and Mahomes are there, the offense will be the league’s most dangerous unit. Not to mention Kadarius Toney had a full offseason to get acquainted with the playbook, they drafted Rashee Rice from SMU, and oh yeah, Travis Kelce is still good at football. The defense doesn’t get enough love, but Chris Jones is amongst the best defensive players in football, and the likes of Willie Gay and Nick Bolton deserve a ton of credit for their play, as well. The Chiefs will be the kings of the mountain until proven otherwise, and they don’t look like they’ll be slowing down anytime soon.
