Talk to NFL people, and they’ll all tell you the same thing. The season starts at Thanksgiving.
Well, sit down and enjoy some turkey this Thursday, knowing the race for the postseason is upon us.
Going into the final seven weeks of the regular season, the playoff picture is both muddled and clear, depending on your area of focus. The Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, Eagles and Lions are clear contenders. The Dolphins, Cowboys and Jaguars are also almost certain for the postseason and could make deep January runs.
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Beyond that? Chaos.
Let’s look at where things stand headed into the holidays.
AFC: Who's In
If the season ended today, here’s who would make the playoffs:
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 7–2, first, AFC West
The Chiefs are in an excellent position to finish with the AFC’s top seed. While they do have games against the Eagles (Monday Night Football) and Bills remaining, both are at Arrowhead. Kansas City’s remaining games are against the Patriots, Packers, Chargers, Bengals and Raiders twice. Also, the Chiefs only have one conference loss.
No. 2: Baltimore Ravens
Matt Rourke/AP
Record: 8–3, first, AFC North
After beating the Bengals, it’s hard to believe the Ravens won’t win the AFC North. The main question is can Baltimore find its way to the conference’s top seed for the first time since 2019? The loss of tight end Mark Andrews doesn’t help, while Baltimore’s schedule still includes trips to Jacksonville and San Francisco.
No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 7–3, first, AFC South
The Jaguars showed who they are after getting handled by the 49ers last week. But with a 34–14 win over the Titans, Jacksonville maintained a one-game lead in the AFC South over the Texans, who they visit next Sunday. It’s a massive divisional game, especially considering Houston already beat Jacksonville in Week 3.
No. 4: Miami Dolphins
Record: 7–3, first, AFC East
Miami played ugly football Sunday, missing a field goal while turning the ball over three times. However, the Dolphins still beat an outclassed Raiders team to improve to 7–3, and still have a nice cushion in the AFC East. Miami should only extend its division lead in the coming weeks, facing the Jets, Commanders, Titans and Jets over the next month.
No. 5: Cleveland Browns
Record: 7–3, second, AFC North
The Browns have had to start three quarterbacks this season in Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker and now Dorian Thompson-Robinson. While the latter couldn’t manage 4.0 yards per attempt Sunday, Cleveland still won because the defense held the Steelers to 10 points. The big question is whether that unit can essentially win three more games. Up next, the Broncos and Rams on the road.
No. 6: Houston Texans
Record: 6–4, second, AFC South
The feel-good story of the season is starting to become a force in the NFL. The Texans handled the Cardinals at home despite three C.J. Stroud picks, and are now two games over .500 for the first time since the 2019 season. The Texans host the Jaguars next Sunday looking for the season sweep, with the Broncos coming in after that.
No. 7: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 6–4, third, AFC North
Kenny Pickett continues to be a blight on the Steelers’ playoff push, throwing for fewer than 100 yards in a loss to the Browns on Sunday. Pittsburgh probably needs to find four wins in its last seven games, and that quest is possible with the Cardinals and Patriots coming to Acrisure Field, along with two games against the Bengals. Still, nothing is easy with this offense.
In the Hunt
Buffalo Bills (6–5): The Bills finally did what they should have done, beating a bad team with ease. Now they have consecutive road games against the Eagles and Chiefs.
Indianapolis Colts (5–5): If the Colts are going to push for the playoffs, they have to come out of their bye and beat the Buccaneers before road tilts with the Titans and Bengals.
Denver Broncos (5–5): The Broncos have enjoyed a shocking four-game winning streak, which includes victories over the Chiefs and Bills. While the schedule ahead remains difficult, Denver has given itself meaningful December football, something nobody expected a month ago.
NFC: Who’s In
If the season ended today, here’s who would make the playoffs:
No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 8–1, first, NFC East
Philadelphia was hoping for a surprise loss from the Lions on Sunday against the Bears, but Detroit narrowly avoided the upset. Now, the Eagles look to do what the Lions did earlier this year by going into Kansas City and beating the Chiefs in primetime.
No. 2: Detroit Lions
Record: 8–2, first, NFC North
It was anything but pretty, but the Lions—8–2 for the first time since 1962—beat the Bears despite four turnovers. Detroit is in phenomenal shape for its first division crown since 1993, when it won the NFC Central. With the Packers coming to Ford Field on Thanksgiving, the Lions can clinch consecutive winning seasons, something they haven’t done since 2016–17.
No. 3: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6–3, first, NFC West
The 49ers continued their resurgence Sunday, easily handling the Buccaneers to stay atop the NFC West. For San Francisco, the meat of the schedule now begins with games against the Seahawks two of the next three weeks, including a Thanksgiving night contest at Quest Field.
No. 4: New Orleans Saints
Record: 5–5, first, NFC South
The Saints were able to sit through their bye week with no stress. New Orleans maintained its No. 4 seed after the Buccaneers fell a full game back in the NFC South with their loss to the 49ers. Coming off their break, the Saints take on the Falcons before a three-game homestand against the Lions, Panthers and Giants.
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 6–4, second, NFC West
Seattle has one of the league’s toughest remaining schedules. Losing on Sunday and swept in the season series by the Rams is a tough blow. The good news? The Seahawks can bounce back on Thanksgiving and take the division lead with a win over the Niners.
No. 6: Dallas Cowboys
Record: 7–3, first, NFC East
Dallas’s assignment Sunday was to avoid a trap game against the Panthers. Mission accomplished. The Cowboys won 33–10 in Charlotte, continuing to solidify their playoff positioning. Now Dallas has a quick turnaround with the Commanders coming to AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving, with Washington fresh off a loss at home to the Giants.
No. 7: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 6–4, second, NFC North
Minnesota was bound to lose at some point, and it happened Sunday night. The Vikings held Denver to just one touchdown, but it was enough for the Broncos to escape, 21–20. Still, Kevin O’Connell’s team remains in good shape, having a two-game advantage over all pursuers for the final wild-card spot.
In the Hunt
Atlanta Falcons (4–6): The Falcons got some help during their bye week after losses by the Buccaneers and Seahawks. Now, they’ve got to string some wins together.
