With Super Bowl LVII in the rearview mirror, all 32 teams have now officially turned their attention to the 2023 (off)season.
The 2023 league year—and NFL free agency—officially begins March 15. Until we are on the other side of free agency, I’ll refrain from projecting trades in my mock drafts.
Last offseason was chaotic. Multiple players (Russell Wilson, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill) were traded for first-round picks. Tom Brady retired, and then unretired. Aaron Rodgers kept the Packers guessing on his status until March.
This offseason has so far seen Brady retire (again), and Rodgers go on a “darkness retreat” to mull his future. No players have been traded for first-round picks, but the Broncos have once again traded … this time one for a coach.
Here’s hoping that this offseason will be a repeat of last year’s excitement.
Note: There are only 31 picks, because the Dolphins have forfeited their first-round pick in 2023.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports (Addison); Gary Cosby Jr./USA TODAY NETWORK (Anderson Jr.); Scott Wachter/USA TODAY Sports (Robinson); Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports (Carter); Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images (Bresee)
1. Chicago Bears: Jalen Carter, IDL, Georgia
The Bears find themselves in an ideal situation. While I won’t project trades in this iteration of my mock, as noted above, it’s more likely than not that the Bears will find a trade partner as a quarterback-needy team looks to move up. In some of those trade scenarios, they may still have the chance to draft Carter or Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr.
There isn’t a wrong choice when choosing between Carter and Anderson, as they are the 1A and 1B on my big board as the top prospects in this year’s draft class. Bears coach Matt Eberflus has talked about the importance of having a stud three-technique in his defense, and Carter is a game-wrecker from the interior. The most talented prospect on a defense that yielded five first-round picks in 2022, Carter has a special blend of power, short-area quickness and lateral agility to be equally disruptive against the run the pass.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Although he played better than expected as a third-round rookie in 2021, Davis Mills ranked 29th (or worse) in completion percentage (61%), yards per attempt (6.5) and passer rating (78.8) while tying for a league-worst 15 interceptions thrown last season. It’s difficult to envision the Texans not using this pick on a signal-caller, and Young offers plenty of hope for the future of the franchise.
The biggest concern about Young is his size (he’s listed at 194 pounds) and the durability risk that comes with it, but he has the ability to lift the play of those around him. Young is always composed, accurate to all three levels, and processes information quickly. His ability to make plays outside of structure stands out.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., edge, Alabama
Anderson checks all the boxes with elite production, physical traits and intangibles. He’s an all-around defender with outstanding power, burst and length, and plays with a relentless motor. The Alabama junior finished his collegiate career with 34.5 sacks and 62 tackles for loss over 41 games. PFF credits Anderson with 65 pressures (tied for fifth among all FBS defenders) in 2022 after leading FBS defenders in both ’20 (60) and ’21 (82).
The Cardinals ranked in the bottom 10 in sacks last season (36), and the two players who accounted for half of their sacks have either retired (J.J. Watt, 12.5) or will be a free agent (Zach Allen, 5.5). In this mock, new general manager Monti Ossenfort begins his Cardinals’ tenure with my top-ranked player falling to him at No. 3.
4. Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Among the teams in play for the top pick, the Colts may be the favorite to trade up. Whether they stay put or move up, it’s likely that this pick will be a quarterback. Since Andrew Luck’s retirement, the Colts have entered each of the past four seasons with a different starter, and three different quarterbacks made multiple starts in 2022.
When given time, Stroud throws with touch and outstanding accuracy to all three levels. Although he can be deadly from the pocket, there weren’t many examples of Stroud displaying his playmaking ability out of structure before his final game against Georgia. The athleticism and off-script improvisational skills he showcased in the Georgia game provide a promising glimpse of what he can do when plays break down.
5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): Tyree Wilson, edge, Texas Tech
After the season, Pete Carroll said that the Seahawks “have to become more dynamic up front.” Wilson finished his most productive season with 50 pressures, per PFF, and 61 tackles, 14 TFLs and seven sacks, despite a foot injury that cut it short. He has an excellent combination of size, length and power, and would provide the Seahawks with some inside-outside versatility.
6. Detroit Lions (via LAR): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Cornerback is arguably the team’s biggest need heading into the offseason, even though the Lions used a top-three pick on Jeff Okudah in 2020. Both Amani Oruwariye and Mike Hughes are scheduled to become free agents next month. The brother-in-law of former Lions quarterback David Blough, Gonzalez has elite speed (23.3 mph on GPS, per Bruce Feldman), smooth change-of-direction ability and excellent length. Gonzalez had four interceptions for the Ducks in ’22.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Who will be under center for the Black-and-Silver in Week 1? While that’s yet to be determined, we know it won’t be Derek Carr. Will Levis or Anthony Richardson could be a possibility here, but it wouldn’t surprise me if their Week 1 starter is a veteran not currently on the roster. Skoronski was a three-year starter at left tackle for the Wildcats, who may have otherwise kicked inside due to a lack of arm length. Given that the Raiders have Kolton Miller at left tackle, however, Skoronski would immediately provide an upgrade at one of the other spots along the line.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Myles Murphy, edge, Clemson
Improving their pass rush has been a perennial need for the Falcons, who rank last in the NFL with only 39 sacks over the past two seasons combined. Grady Jarrett led the team with six sacks in 2022. Murphy has an ideal combination of size, length, power and first-step quickness. The true junior is one of the younger prospects in this draft class and has plenty of long-term upside as he continues to put it all together.
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
9. Carolina Panthers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Panthers may need to move up to get Levis, and David Tepper may not be patient waiting for a quarterback to fall to them at No. 9. While the 2022 season did not go as well for Levis as hoped, injuries and changes to Kentucky’s supporting cast and coaching staff played a part, as well. His physical traits—prototypical size, arm talent and mobility—combined with his intangibles and toughness, could entice the Panthers to take a chance on his upside as they begin a new era with the franchise’s first offensive-minded head coach.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Witherspoon has put himself into the CB1 mix, although he’s the second off the board in this mock. The three-year starter is a confident, smart and physical cornerback with outstanding ball skills. He finished last season with three interceptions and 14 pass breakups. Given that James Bradberry is scheduled to become a free agent in March, and Darius Slay will be a free agent after next season, cornerback is a position that the NFC champs could address with one of their first-round picks.
11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Taylor Lewan, who missed all but two games with a knee injury last year, expects to be cut in “the next couple of weeks” and then he’ll make a decision on whether he’ll retire. Either way, the Titans could use this pick on a long-term left tackle prospect with Johnson. The former five-star recruit was a two-year starter at both right guard (2021) and left tackle (’22), but he’s ideally suited to play left tackle given his combination of size, length and athleticism.
12. Houston Texans (via CLE): Jordan Addison, WR, USC
If the Texans draft Young (or a different quarterback) with their first pick, it would make sense to put as many pieces in place for their young quarterback to be successful early. Addison is not the biggest or strongest receiver, but he has the speed, route-running ability and ball skills to emerge as the team’s top receiver early in his career.
13. New York Jets: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
George Fant will be a free agent, Duane Brown will be 38 years old in August and it’s unclear what the Jets will get from Mekhi Becton, who has played only 48 snaps (Week 1, 2021) over the past two seasons combined. Jones is relatively inexperienced, as only a season-plus starter, but he has the length, athleticism and potential to provide long-term stability at left tackle as he continues to grow into his frame and refine his technique.
14. New England Patriots: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
Branch could fill virtually any role in the secondary and has the versatility, intelligence and instincts that Bill Belichick covets. Branch is comfortable in coverage, a reliable tackler defending the run or screens and disruptive as a blitzer. A number of New England’s defensive backs—Devin McCourty, Jabrill Peppers, Jonathan Jones—are slated for free agency.
15. Green Bay Packers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are coming off productive rookie seasons, and Mayer would give Aaron Rodgers (or Jordan Love) another weapon in the passing game. Mayer has an all-around skill set with the ability to play in-line and was the focal point of Notre Dame’s passing offense, leading the team in receiving three years in a row.
16. Washington Commanders: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Coach Ron Rivera has recently said, “I know this: We will go into OTAs, minicamp and training camp with Sam Howell more than likely QB1, and we’ll see what happens.” As much as I didn’t expect Howell to last until the fifth round last April, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Commanders took a chance on Richardson if he was still available here. Given his size, athletic traits and immense dual-threat upside, Richardson most often draws comparisons to Cam Newton, who won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in Rivera’s first season as a head coach. (To be clear, I’m not projecting that Richardson will win OROY, or even start in this scenario, but Rivera should appreciate Richardson’s potential.)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Steelers may hope that one of the top three offensive linemen—Skoronski, Johnson or Jones—falls to them here, but the Steelers can’t go wrong drafting Joey Porter. Again. The son of the former linebacker and coach who won a Super Bowl with the Steelers, Porter is a physical corner with excellent size, length and speed. Although he had only one career interception at Penn State, he is disruptive at the catch point and finished 2022 with a career-high 11 passes defended.
18. Detroit Lions: Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
Double-dipping with defensive picks in the first round is a distinct possibility for the Lions. While Detroit ranked top five in both total and scoring offense in 2022, it ranked last in total defense and only the Bears (27.2) and Cardinals (26.4) allowed more points per game than the Lions (25.1), who also ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric for defense. Rookies Aidan Hutchinson (9.5) and James Houston (eight) combined for 17.5 sacks last season, but Bresee has the quickness and power to be a disruptive three-technique for the Lions.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The biggest need for the Buccaneers as they begin their rebuild in the post–Tom Brady era is quarterback, but the four top options are already off the board here. Corners Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are both impending free agents, and Smith is a competitive corner with good length and ball skills (six career interceptions).
20. Seattle Seahawks: O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
Tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas played well as rookies, and the Seahawks could use this pick to bolster their interior offensive line. I considered Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz here, as well, given that center Austin Blythe is an impending free agent, but Gabe Jackson and Damien Lewis are free agents next offseason, and Torrence would be an immediate upgrade over the 31-year-old Jackson. Torrence thrived following the jump to SEC competition last year and is especially dominant as a run blocker.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Unlike his former OSU teammates (Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson), Smith-Njigba won’t run a sub-4.4 (or even a sub-4.5, most likely) 40-yard dash at the combine in a few weeks. But neither did Keenan Allen, who may be a cap casualty this offseason. Although he’s not a burner, JSN has outstanding ball skills and body control, and is a polished route runner who understands how to use leverage to create separation. A nagging hamstring injury derailed his entire 2022 season, but he set the Big Ten receiving record (1,606 yards) in ’21. If the Bolts are forced to part ways with Allen for business reasons, Smith-Njigba would provide a replacement who could win in similar ways.
John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated
22. Baltimore Ravens: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Baltimore’s lack of talent at wide receiver was a glaring weakness last season without Marquise Brown (traded during last year’s draft) and Rashod Bateman (injured during the season). The Ravens operate a run-centered offense, but Johnston’s combination of size and speed would provide the offense with a vertical threat it lacked last season. In turn, his ability to stretch the field would help to create lighter boxes for the run game.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
While shifty receivers may create challenges, Ringo has an elite combination of size and speed. Ringo is a physical corner who isn’t afraid to mix it up in run support, although he missed six tackles in 2022, per PFF. Ringo is one of the youngest players in the draft and won’t turn 21 until this summer.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Evan Engram set career highs in receptions (73) and yards (766) in his first season with the Jaguars. Both sides want Engram to be back, but will they be able to make it work financially? Based on effective cap space from Over the Cap, the Jaguars are projected to be nearly $23 million over the cap. In terms of being used as a weapon in the passing game, Kincaid is as talented as any tight end in this class.
25. New York Giants: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
The Giants traded Kadarius Toney midseason, and Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson sustained season-ending injuries during the season. One thing is clear, however: New York needs to bolster its receiving corps. Hyatt ran a limited route tree within Tennessee’s spread offense, but the Biletnikoff winner has good hands and elite speed. Eight of his 15 touchdowns went for 45-plus yards.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
The Cowboys need way more production, obviously, in Year 2 from third-round receiver Jalen Tolbert, but they could consider adding to their receiving corps here. Another major need is shoring up the team’s corner spot opposite Trevon Diggs, as that position was a rotating door after the injury to Anthony Brown, an impending free agent. Forbes is a slender cornerback with good length, speed, instincts and ball skills. He finished his collegiate career with more pick-sixes (six) than most corners had regular interceptions.
27. Buffalo Bills: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Based on talent, Robinson should be off the board long before this point. If he slides this far, however, the Bills may find it too difficult to pass on his do-everything skill set. Robinson is a tackle-breaking machine with outstanding size, speed, vision and contact balance. He’s also dynamic as a receiver.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
There were no first-round tight ends taken last year, but Washington is the third off the board here. (In fact, Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave is in the first-round mix, as well.) That said, Washington is unique in that he plays almost like a third offensive tackle given his massive frame (6'7" and 270 pounds) and play strength. Washington is at his best as a run blocker, but he would provide Joe Burrow with a massive target in the red zone and down the seam.
29. New Orleans Saints (via SF/MIA/DEN): Lukas Van Ness, edge, Iowa
The Saints are the fourth team to own the rights to this pick, after reaching agreement with the Broncos on a trade for Sean Payton. Van Ness is a prospect who has the upside to go much earlier than this, but he’d be a good fit for the Saints. Cam Jordan turns 34 this summer, and former first-rounder Payton Turner has only three sacks in 13 games through two seasons. Van Ness has a blend of power, length and a quick first step with inside-outside versatility.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Keion White, edge, Georgia Tech
White played tight end for Old Dominion in 2018, transitioned to defense in ’19 and then ODU didn’t play football in ’20. He transferred to Georgia Tech for the ’21 season and had his most productive season (14 TFLs and 7.5 sacks) in ’22. While he’s relatively new to the defensive side of the ball, he’s extremely athletic for a 280-pound edge defender. Considering the way the Eagles rotate their defensive linemen, Philly would have the benefit of utilizing White in a way that maximizes his development.
Left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. played on the franchise tag last season, and right tackle Andrew Wylie is scheduled to become a free agent next month. The Chiefs are likely to franchise Brown again, if necessary, to extend their window to negotiate a long-term deal. That makes a right tackle prospect like Jones or Tennessee’s Darnell Wright a good fit here. Jones is a massive tackle prospect, even when compared to Brown, and has a “rare” 89½" wingspan.
