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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Luke Easterling

2023 NFL mock draft: 3-round projections with big trades for top QBs

NFL USA TODAY Sports Christian Gonzalez CJ Stroud Alabama (Organization) Anthony Richardson Bears Bijan Robinson Brian Branch Broderick Jones

You know it’s officially draft season when the NFL Scouting Combine rolls around, and that’s exactly where we find ourselves this week, as more than 300 of this year’s top draft prospects join league personnel at Lucas Oil Stadium for one massive job interview.

As is the case most years, the top storylines in the 2023 NFL draft center around a handful of promising quarterbacks, all of whom could generate a flurry of trades at the top of the board.

Keeping that in mind, here’s an updated look at how the first three rounds of this year’s draft could shake out (draft order and projected compensatory picks via Tankathon):

NOTE: The Miami Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick in next year’s draft as a result of the NFL’s investigation into tampering violations.

*projected trade

1. Houston Texans (from CHI)* | Alabama QB Bryce Young

The Bears already have their franchise quarterback in Justin Fields, so they can auction this pick off to the highest bidder. They can also leverage division rivals against one another, and if they play their cards right, Chicago can take advantage of both teams’ desperation. Here, Houston gives up the No. 12 overall pick to jump up one spot and get the best passer in the class.

2. Indianapolis Colts (from HOU via CHI)* | Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

Chicago should still be open for business here, with multiple teams still trying to get in position to draft the next-best quarterback on the board. It might still cost Indy next year’s first-round pick and this year’s second-round pick to move up two spots, but it’s worth it for the only other QB prospect in this draft who will be ready start Week 1.

3. Carolina Panthers (from ARI)* | Kentucky QB Will Levis

This is why the Colts could end up being forced to move up to No. 2, because other QB-needy teams will still be trying to jump them for Stroud. If a team like the Panthers misses out on both Stroud and Young, they might still be desperate enough to cough up next year’s first-rounder and one of their second-rounders this year for Levis, who is a work in progres with plenty of tools and upside.

4. Chicago Bears (from IND)* | Georgia DL Jalen Carter

After trading down twice and loading up on additional picks, the Bears still end up with arguably the best player in the draft. Carter’s legal situation could obviously play a part in where he lands, but it’s too early (and in poor taste, given the tragic events involved) to speculate on any of that at this point.

5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Alabama EDGE Will Anderson

This would be a dream scenario for the Seahawks, who land arguably the top overall prospect in the entire draft here. Thanks to the Russell Wilson trade, Seattle is able to fill their need for a dynamic edge rusher with Anderson, who was dominant over the past two seasons, and should have gotten Heisman Trophy consideration.

6. Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon

This might be the last potential trade-up spot for teams trying to land the last first-round quarterback (getting ahead of the Raiders), but if the Lions don’t get the offer they want, they could easily stand pat and take the best corner in the class. Witherspoon is a complete defender who should immediately be one of the league’s best.

7. Las Vegas Raiders | Florida QB Anthony Richardson

After watching three teams make desperation moves up the board for quarterbacks, the Raiders are rewarded for their patience, landing the one with perhaps the highest ceiling. Richardson’s development might take some patience, but his combination of size, athleticism, arm talent and pocket presence could end up making him a dynamic superstar down the line.

8. Atlanta Falcons | Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson

This is a huge win for the Falcons, who desperately need more impact players along their entire defensive front. Wilson has rare athleticism and versatility for a defender with his massive frame, and landing him outside of the top 10 would be a ridiculous bargain.

9. Arizona Cardinals (from CAR)* | Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez

After trading down from No. 3 and loading up on extra picks, the Cards still get great value at a position of need here. A Colorado transfer, Gonzalez had a stellar 2022 campaign for the Ducks, and brings a fantastic blend of size, length, athleticism and ball skills to a premium position.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO) | Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy

Thanks to last year’s draft-day trade with the Saints, the Eagles are in a perfect spot here to address any number of need areas with a top prospect. In this scenario, Murphy is the no-brainer pick, giving them yet another well-rounded edge defender with athleticism and upside who can rush the passer and set the edge in the run game.

11. Tennessee Titans | Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr.

I know Titans fans are tired of seeing the same couple of names here, but when the match of need and value just keeps landing like this, it’s unavoidable. Tennessee needs tackle help bigtime, and Johnson played on both sides for the Buckeyes, with a track record of success against top competition.

12. Chicago Bears (from CLE via HOU)* | Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski

Another ideal turn of events for the Bears, who address their massive need along the offensive line with the perfect fit. Skoronski can play either tackle or guard at a high level, and he’s polished enough to immediately slide into the starting lineup at either spot, and be an instant upgrade.

13. New York Jets | Georgia OT Broderick Jones

The run on offensive tackles continues, as they Jets fill their biggest need outside of the quarterback position with the last prospect who should be a first-round lock in this year’s group. Jones is a mauler in the run game, solid in pass protection, and would be a huge boost to a promising offense.

14. New England Patriots | TCU WR Quentin Johnston

After watching the top three tackles all come off the board right in front of them, the Pats could be prime candidates to bail out of this pick. That said, they also need playmakers in the passing game, and with no receivers off the board yet, taking a high-upside prospect like Johnston would be a smart move.

15. Green Bay Packers | Iowa EDGE/DL Lukas Van Ness

Every year, mock drafts love to send pass-catchers to the Packers in the first round, but they never end up taking them in real life. Green Bay prefers to invest their top picks on defense, so don’t be surprised if they do it again this year. Van Ness wasn’t a starter for the Hawkeyes, but if you watch his film, it’s hard to understand why. He’ll be a much more productive pro.

16. Washington Commanders | Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.

The offensive line needs help across the board here, but in this scenario, the value’s just not there. Instead, the Commanders go to their biggest need on the other side of the ball, landing a big, physical corner in Porter, who plays his position with the same style that made his dad a Pro Bowl defender.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers | Georgia Tech EDGE/DL Keion White

With all of the top offensive tackles and corners off the board, the Steelers find the best match of need and value along the defensive front. They need help along the interior and on the edge, so why not take a versatile defender in White, who can line up anywhere and dominate with a rare skill set and limitless athleticism.

18. Seattle Seahawks (from DET)* | Alabama DB Brian Branch

This defense needs a versatile weapon who can line up in the box, over the top, or in the slot. Branch played the exact kind of role for Nick Saban’s defense making him the perfect fit. With the Bucs having a similar need at No. 19 overall, Seattle throws a mid-round pick to the Lions so they can leapfrog them and get their man.

19. Kansas City Chiefs (from TB)* | USC WR Jordan Addison

Patrick Mahomes still won another MVP and Super Bowl after Tyreek Hill’s departure, but free agency could leave the cupboard bare at wide receiver again this offseason. In return for their second-round pick, the Chiefs leap up the board to land arguably the most polished and pro-ready pass-catcher in the class.

20. Detroit Lions (from SEA)* | Texas RB Bijan Robinson

This pick is all about value, as the Lions throw their bigger needs out the window, and simply add the best player available to their roster. Jamaal Williams is a free agent, and D’Andre Swift has struggled to stay healthy, so adding a top-five overall prospect in Robinson shouldn’t be out of the question if he’s still on the board here.

21. Los Angeles Chargers | Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt

Syndication: The Knoxville News-Sentinel

Justin Herbert already has a pair of big, physical pass-catchers, but he needs more explosiveness and big-play ability outside of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Hyatt is lightning bolt of a playmaker who would be the perfect fit, after proving to be a highlight-reel machine for the Vols.

22. Baltimore Ravens | Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Hopefully, Todd Monken’s new offense will give Lamar Jackson the opportunity to open up the passing game in a way Greg Roman’s didn’t. Even if it does, Jackson will need more weapons to whom he can throw, and despite a 2022 season marred by injury, Smith-Njigba’s 2021 tape is more than enough to warrant this pick.

23. Minnesota Vikings | Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes

Getting Brian Flores as their new defensive coordinator is a huge win for one of the league’s worst defenses last year, but now they need to improve the personnel in a similar way. Flores needs confident, playmaking corners with size, length, instincts and ball skills to make his scheme go, making Forbes the ideal fit.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars | Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer

The defense has a few holes that need to be filled, but the Jags’ primary focus should still be giving Trevor Lawrence as much help as possible. Even if Evan Engram returns after a stellar season, Mayer’s well-rounded skill set and blocking prowess would bring an added element to a dynamic offense.

25. New York Giants | Arkansas LB Drew Sanders

Wide receiver is the biggest need, but in this scenario, the value’s just there compared to other areas that have to be addressed on this roster. A five-star recruit at Alabama, Sanders has been a star for the Hogs since transferring, thanks to a rare combination of size, length, athleticism and versatility.

26. Dallas Cowboys | South Carolina CB Cam Smith

The Cowboys have one of the NFL’s best corners in Trevon Diggs, but they could use an upgrade on the other side. This year’s deep class at the position should give them plenty of worthy candidates, even this late in the first round, and Smith was dominant throughout his career against top competition in the SEC.

27. Buffalo Bills | Texas A&M S Antonio Johnson

The offense needs help at multiple positions, but that doesn’t mean the Bills have to fill any of them with their top pick. It wouldn’t be surprising for them to spend this pick on a top safety prospect like Johnson to help fill the void if Jordan Poyer leaves in free agency.

28. Cincinnati Bengals | Utah TE Dalton Kincaid

There are a few key needs for the Bengals heading into the offseason, and while it might feel like a luxury pick, the tight end room could be completely depleted by free agency. Kincaid is the best pure pass-catcher in a deep tight end class, and would be a dangerous addition to an already explosive passing game.

29. New Orleans Saints (from SF via MIA, DEN) | Florida OL O'Cyrus Torrence

After getting back into the first round thanks to their trade with the Denver Broncos for the rights to former head coach Sean Payton, the Saints get to start chipping away at their long list of needs. Without a quarterback worthy of this spot, New Orleans opts to address their needs in the trenches with this year’s top interior blocker.

30. Philadelphia Eagles | Georgia CB Kelee Ringo

After reloading in the defensive trenches earlier in the round, the Eagles fill another big need on defense here. Ringo’s 2022 tape was a roller-coaster, but he’s still got high-end physical traits, and would give the Eagles a perfect replacement for James Bradberry across from Darius Slay.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from KC)* | Clemson LB Trenton Simpson

After trading down and adding another second-round pick, the Bucs start reloading their defense, which needs help at every level. Even if Lavonte David returns next season, he’s 33 years old, so the Bucs will need to plan for the future alongside Devin White. Simpson is versatile, athletic and physical, with the instincts and intelligence to be the perfect fit.