The dust has settled on the first wave of free agency and many teams’ plans have come into focus.
For the Jacksonville Jaguars, things have been awfully quiet. A year after dumping a record-breaking amount of money into free agency, the team has watched from the sideline as other teams have signed players, including offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor and pass rusher Arden Key.
But with a week of free agency in the books, here’s a look at how the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft may shake out:
1. Carolina Panthers (via Bears): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Panthers moved up to take the top pick, but which quarterback they have in mind is still a mystery. My guess is Stroud, the sharpshooter of the class.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Young is smaller than you want an NFL quarterback to be, but that’s just about it on the list of negatives. The former Heisman winner could easily wind up in Carolina. If he doesn’t, he won’t fall far at all.
TRADE - 3. Indianapolis Colts (via Cardinals): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
With two passers already off the board and a handful of quarterback-needy teams not far behind the Colts, they send a third-round pick to the Cardinals to make sure they get their choice of Richardson and Will Levis. New head coach Shane Steichen found a lot of success in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts and he’ll have a ton of tools to work with in Richardson.
4. Arizona Cardinals (via Colts): Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
After picking up a little extra value for the third pick, Arizona still gets the top defensive prospect of the class in Anderson. The Cardinals were bottom 10 in the league in sacks last year and that was before they lost Zach Allen and J.J. Watt in the offseason.
5. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Seahawks addressed the interior of their defensive line by adding Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed, but they’re still lacking in premier talent on the edge.
6. Detroit Lions (via Rams): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
It’s tough to tell if Carter’s prodigious talent is still enough to make him an early draft pick, or if his horrible last month will result in a slide. If the Lions are willing to take the risk, Carter represents the opportunity to add a special player at a position of need.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Adding Jimmy Garoppolo means the Raiders don’t have to start a rookie at quarterback during the 2023 season. It doesn’t, however, mean the team has found its Derek Carr successor. With three passers off the board, Las Vegas has a chance to take the fourth before a big drop-off in talent at the position.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Atlanta has been relatively busy in free agency, adding safety Jessie Bates III, defensive tackle David Onyemata, and cornerback Mike Hughes. All that cleared the way for the Falcons to address their most pressing need: their terrible pass rush.
9. Chicago Bears (via Panthers): Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Bears were expected to be players in the offensive tackle market, but ended up sitting out while Jawaan Taylor, Mike McGlinchey, Orlando Brown, Kaleb McGary, and Andre Dillard all cashed in elsewhere. Chicago has to provide Justin Fields with more protection and it’ll have its pick of offensive linemen in this scenario.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Cornerback isn’t exactly the desperate need it seemed it would be after the Eagles managed to find a way to keep Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Still, the opportunity to take the top player of the class at the position isn’t a bad option, especially when both Slay and Bradberry will be in their 30s when the season starts.
11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
There’s certainly a chance that the Titans trade up to nab one of the top quarterbacks, but settling for their Taylor Lewan replacement is a more than passable consolation if they miss out on the top four passers.
12. Houston Texans (via Browns): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Texans already had one of the NFL’s worst wide receiver corps before they traded away Brandin Cooks. Houston has to make significant investments at the position with a rookie quarterback likely to start, and Johnston is a good place to start.
13. New York Jets: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
The Jets’ draft outlook is in limbo until they figure out their Aaron Rodgers situation and whatever capital is needed to acquire him from the Packers. If they keep the 13th pick, an offensive lineman would make sense. But so would a defensive tackle after both Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd left in free agency.
14. New England Patriots: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Patriots still have offensive line needs even after adding Riley Reiff, but they also have secondary issues and it’d be pretty difficult to pass up on Gonzalez if he slips this far down the order.
15. Green Bay Packers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Regardless how the negotiations with the Jets continue, the Jordan Love era is here for the Packers and he needs more weapons. Smith-Njigba is a smooth route runner and a perfect complement to Christian Watson.
16. Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Commanders need a long-term solution at quarterback and their offensive line needs a boost, but cornerback jumps out as the top position to address early.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
It’s not often that you get to put 374 pounds between opposing defensive lineman and your young quarterback. Jones is a unique player, but his rare size make him a tantalizing prospect who would be perfect in the AFC North.
18 Detroit Lions: Bryan Bresee, DE, Clemson
The Lions added Aidan Hutchinson last year and now they get Jalen Carter and Bryan Bresee. That’s a trio that’ll make sure Detroit doesn’t finish dead last in yards allowed again like it did in 2022.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The post-Tom Brady era is set to start with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. There’s a long-term rebuild coming for Tampa Bay and adding talent in the trenches will set the foundation.
20. Seattle Seahawks: O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
After adding to the defensive line in the top five, the Seahawks add to the offensive line in the latter half of the first round.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
Smith is landing in the second round of most mock drafts, but I love the fit in Los Angeles. The 337-pound space eater will go a long way toward fixing a defense that allowed an NFL-worst 5.4 yards per carry.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Assuming nothing wild happens that sends Lamar Jackson elsewhere, the Ravens are left with the same problem they’ve had his entire tenure: lackluster weapons. Addison is a polished receiver who could contribute right away in the Baltimore offense.
Trade - 23. Philadelphia Eagles (via Vikings): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Eagles don’t have a ton of draft capital to trade with, but the chance to take the top running back of the class gets them a little antsy. For the cost of a 2024 third-rounder, Philadelphia jumps up seven spots to secure Robinson.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
The Jaguars haven’t made it clear what their long-term plans are regarding Josh Allen, who is set to play the 2023 season on the fifth-year option of his rookie contract. Either way, adding more pass rushing help is a must and Van Ness has all the traits that general manager Trent Baalke covets.
25. New York Giants: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Giants have more offensive firepower with Darren Waller and Parris Campbell added to the fold. Now it’s time to find a top-tier replacement for Julian Love at cornerback.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Dallas added speed at receiver by trading for Brandin Cooks, but it lost a huge part of its offense when Dalton Schultz joined the Texans. In Mayer, the Cowboys will get the kind of big, reliable pass catcher that they’ve had in the middle of their offense for about two decades now.
27. Buffalo Bills: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
The Bills don’t have many glaring needs, but finding a replacement for Tremaine Edmunds is high up on the priority list. With other logical prospects like O’Cyrus Torrence and Bijan Robinson off the board, Trenton Simpson is a perfect fit.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Bengals don’t have many glaring needs, but their secondary could use work after losing Jessie Bates III in free agency. Branch has the versatility to help on the back end or help closer to the line of scrimmage with Chidobe Awuzie and Cam Taylor-Britt at cornerback.
29. New Orleans Saints (via 49ers): Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Saints lost Marcus Davenport, Shy Tuttle, and David Onyemata from their defensive front seven. While Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders fill a lot of space in the middle, the Saints need talent on the edges and Murphy is a tremendous value this late in the first round.
30. Minnesota Vikings (via Eagles): Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Vikings moved down a bit and still get a top receiver prospect to pair with Justin Jefferson following the release of Adam Thielen.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Kansas City has its left tackle of the future in Jawaan Taylor, but the team may look to bookend him with a right tackle of the future after losing Andrew Wylie. Wright is the perfect fit for that role.
