I know we say it every year, but I mean it this time: This is as hard a draft to predict as I can remember.
And that’s because, as I said to someone the other night, it feels like we’re all looking at a Jenga tower that’s teetering on a piece that reads “Houston Texans” on it. Pull it out correctly, and maybe you can pull a few more blocks as a result. But if you’re shaky on the trigger, the whole thing could come tumbling down. In either case, you’re in the same boat as the people making the decisions.
“Prepared for anything at this point,” says one GM, via text.
Any idea what Houston is doing?
“I really have none,” says an NFC coach.
And after I sent another mock over to a college scouting director for vetting, with a few pieces having moved around since the last one I’d sent him, he responded, “Stroud at 2 now? Where did that come from?”
It came, in fact, from someone telling me to give Stroud to the Texans after most previous information I’d gotten contradicted that. So whereas in a lot of years, I feel like the more I know, the less I know, with one team’s info flying in the face of another’s, it’s especially so this year.
But this is what I’ve gotten after dozens of calls, texts and check-ins with every team in the league over the past two months. Here goes nothing …
1
Carolina Panthers (via CHI): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
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The hay’s been in the barn for a while on this one, and we’ve detailed the reasons why. Young’s tape is probably the cleanest of all the QBs in the class, he crushed his meetings with Frank Reich, and he hit a home run on the S2 test that owner David Tepper puts so much stock in. I don’t think anything changed in the Panthers’ final set of meetings, so Young will be the pick.
2
Houston Texans: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas TechThe drumbeat on this one has gotten louder, and I’ve heard that Wilson passed his physical with the Texans (not everyone did). Will Anderson Jr. would be the safer pick, and he shares Alabama ties with new coach DeMeco Ryans. But Wilson’s a stronger scheme fit for what Ryans is going to build in Houston, and has the higher ceiling. Not putting C.J. Stroud here certainly nagged at me. And I still think Stroud could be the pick, for what it’s worth.
3
Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., edge, AlabamaIf he’s stuck at No. 3, Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort, as I see it, will park this one right in the middle of the fairway, and Anderson is safe as they come. I’ve heard Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr. and Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon are in the discussion here, too. But ideally, the first-year GM will deal the pick off and bring a haul home for it—I could see the Colts coming up one spot just to make sure they get their guy.
4
Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio StateStroud is the best fit for Shane Steichen’s offense. I’ve heard assistant GM Ed Dodds, who has juice in that building, really likes him. But, as I’ve also heard it, GM Chris Ballard puts stock in the S2 test, which could be an issue for Stroud. Ballard was all over Will Levis in the fall, and I don’t think Indy has the issue with his personality that other teams do. Then, there’s how the developmental template used on Jalen Hurts (whom Steichen coached in Philadelphia) could work wonders for Anthony Richardson. And even the little tell in the workout with BYU’s Jaren Hall being tucked in with all the others when the Colts were traveling around to see these guys (which could be for the scenario in which the Colts go with a non-QB at No. 4). So I’m holding my breath here and going with Stroud.
5
Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): Jalen Carter, DT, GeorgiaI’ve heard Pete Carroll really likes the idea of adding the game-wrecking Carter to his defensive line and is comfortable, after meeting with him, that he can make it work with a guy who’s been taken off the draft board by other teams. The question would then become whether GM John Schneider will be comfortable with it, after striking out on Malik McDowell, who had some off-field concerns, a few years ago. If they don’t take Carter, Wilson and Anderson are names that have come up in connection to Seattle in my conversations, as has Richardson.
6
Detroit Lions (via LAR): Devon Witherspoon, CB, IllinoisIf Carter falls here, I think the Lions would think long and hard about it, and might actually take him. In this scenario, though, they’ll be plenty satisfied—Witherspoon’s an outstanding fit for Dan Campbell’s program and Aaron Glenn’s defense. The only question with him concerns his size (6'0", 180). Outside of that? He’s tough, athletic, feisty, sticky in coverage, carries top-end ball skills, and is the type who’ll probably be someone’s team captain in two or three years. In other words, he’s just about everything the Lions have been trying to build.
7
Las Vegas Raiders: Peter Skoronski, OL, NorthwesternMy feeling is Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler will look for a program fit, and Skoronski would be a good one. I could see Paris Johnson Jr. here, too, and Witherspoon if he were available. But this is one team where the drawback on Northwestern lineman—most of the league thinks he’s a guard and not tackle—would be less of a problem, since Kolton Miller is entrenched at left tackle. The Raiders know they need to get better up front, and this would do that for them.
8
Atlanta Falcons: Lukas Van Ness, DE, IowaIn a scenario where Stroud goes second, Wilson could fall here, and I think the Falcons would take him—I’ve heard their new DC, Ryan Nielsen, sees some shades of Cam Jordan in his game. Van Ness is the same sort of bigger defensive end favored by the New Orleans scheme Nielsen is bringing. And the one other name here to watch would be Texas RB Bijan Robinson. At No. 8? Maybe. Or maybe GM Terry Fontenot would trade down (Atlanta has called around, fishing for trade-down options).
9
Chicago Bears (via CAR): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio StateDeep down, I think Johnson will go higher than this (you might be able to flip-flop this pick with the Raiders’ pick). But this, at least in my mind, would be the floor for Johnson, a high-character, tall, long 21 year old who looks like he came off a left tackle assembly line. While he needs to get stronger, he’s young and will have time to do it, and so the ceiling is really high. Skoronski would make sense, too. I’ve heard the Bears would be good with Carter. If he slips, I could see them taking him, and that is in part because, if an offensive lineman they like isn’t there, my sense is they would look for a defensive lineman here.
10
Philadelphia Eagles (via NO): Christian Gonzalez, CB, OregonCarter would be a consideration here, which would reunite him with ex-Georgia teammates Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis. If he’s gone, I think GM Howie Roseman will explore moving down. In the scenario where Carter’s gone, and the Eagles stick, corner would be a top priority. And getting the wildly gifted Gonzalez, who could stand to play a little more physically, would be a gift at No. 10, particularly with the Eagles’ starters at the position, James Bradberry and Darius Slay, going year-to-year with the team.
11
Tennessee Titans: Darnell Wright, OT, TennesseeThis would be a meat-and-potatoes pick for a team that’s doing a roster reset with a new GM. Also, that GM, Ran Carthon, is coming from a place (San Francisco) with a strong emphasis on building through the line of scrimmage. And some of Wright’s tape from Tennessee, particularly the stuff against Anderson in the Vols’ win over Bama, is as impressive as any of the soon-to-be draftees. Taking Georgia’s Broderick Jones might be a bit tempting here, because he’s a left tackle, the Taylor Lewan era just ended in Nashville and Wright might be strictly a right tackle. But I think the Titans would be a little squeamish about taking a Georgia tackle with a few maturity/entitlement concerns, after what they went through with 2020 first-rounder Isaiah Wilson.
12
Houston Texans (via CLE): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
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I had to find a home for Levis, and if it’s not Indianapolis, it’s hard to find one. Levis has had a very up-and-down ride through the predraft process—from some interviews that left teams wondering about his personality, to the more recent buzz that he’ll go higher than expected. In the scenario I’ve laid out, I do think Richardson would be a consideration. But Levis, who is tough, experienced and was beloved in Lexington, gets the nod, with the feeling he’ll be ready to play faster.
13
Green Bay Packers (via NYJ): Michael Mayer, TE, Notre DameYes, this is high for Mayer. Yes, I think ideally the Packers would get him after trading down (maybe with the Steelers coming up to get a tackle, and the Packers taking the tight end at No. 17). And, yes, I get the feeling Green Bay might like Mayer—the best true two-way tight end in the class—enough to reach a little and grab him here. Tight end’s a big need, and Mayer would be a nice security blanket for new starter Jordan Love. Ohio State slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be, too, so he could be the pick here as well.
14
New England Patriots: Broderick Jones, OT, GeorgiaThe Patriots can sit tight and get a very high-ceiling player to develop in Jones—once a five-star recruit who only started for a year in Athens. There’s a little risk here, and they’d be projecting Jones’s growing up some, on and off the field, which gives me a little pause (the Patriots generally play it safe in the first round). But in the end, it’s too big a need for New England to ignore, and the chance to get a potential Pro Bowl talent, at that position, at this stage of this particular draft, would be too much to pass up.
15
New York Jets (via GB): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio StateThis is where, in my opinion, the Aaron Rodgers trade costs the Jets a little—by going down from No. 13 to No. 15, New York loses the chance to land Jones, who would’ve been my pick for them in their original slot. But as it is, there’s still a spot for a slot left open by Braxton Berrios that people have assumed is earmarked for Randall Cobb. Smith-Njigba would give them another option there, and one with a considerably higher ceiling than Berrios brought to the position.
16
Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn StateI think Washington will go with a corner or tackle here, and the Commanders have done plenty of work on Porter, a long, physical, feisty defensive back who fits what Ron Rivera needs in his scheme. He played a lot of ball for the Nittany Lions and should be able to step in right away for the Commanders, who would be putting a lot of faith in Sam Howell (and they do have that faith in him) by passing on Richardson at this stage of the first round. And I did get a little late information that Washington exec Marty Hurney has advocated for Richardson.
17
Pittsburgh Steelers: Deonte Banks, CB, MarylandBanks is a player whom I found teams quietly love—he’s got all the athletic ability you want, is already a really good player and has a chance to get a lot better. Also, this always seems to be a need for the Steelers, and it just so happens that Mike Tomlin’s son, Dino, was a member of Banks’s recruiting class at Maryland. So with the top four tackles gone, Pittsburgh can get some help in the secondary (I think you’ll continue to hear about the Steelers’ efforts to move up for one of the OTs, for what it’s worth).
18
Detroit Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, TexasDo I think Robinson will fall this far? Probably not. Maybe Atlanta will take him at No. 8. If not, it’s a little harder to find the Texas workhorse a home. I could see the Chargers making a move up to get him. But if they don’t, the Lions, who have explored moving down from this spot, would have to be pretty happy to get the sort of bell cow for their backfield that they haven’t had since Barry Sanders was in Detroit. Robinson’s already a Saquon Barkley– or Zeke Elliott–level talent, and there’s a strong feeling he’s got more in his bag in the passing game that even those in Texas didn’t get a chance to fully see.
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anthony Richardson, QB, FloridaI didn’t want to give them a quarterback, because I do think the Bucs are excited to see what they have in Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. And if it were Levis sitting there for Tampa, I might go with, say, Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison. But the value of Richardson being here, in tandem with the top tackles being gone, makes this a swing that Tampa has to take in its first-year post–Tom Brady. And those other quarterbacks on the roster? They would give the Bucs leeway to sit Richardson for a year if they want to.
20
Seattle Seahawks: Nolan Smith, OLB, GeorgiaCarroll and Schneider love athletic freaks like Smith, and he’d give them one who could play the Bruce Irvin role in their defense. On top of that, Smith is as clean as they come from a character standpoint, and having him in the class would help Carter (whom we have them taking at No. 5). And getting both would probably make Seattle a handful to deal with up front in short order.
21
Los Angeles Chargers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, UtahKincaid’s dynamic in the passing game, and would only further complicate the problem defenses have dealing with the oak trees the Chargers have at receiver, in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. I do think trading up for Robinson, or taking a receiver (I’ve heard they like Boston College’s Zay Flowers) to get a year ahead of a need, would make sense too. But Kincaid is a very good fit for what new coordinator Kellen Moore is looking to build on offense.
22
Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
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Consider this another olive branch to Lamar Jackson, and an important move to address a long-range need, with Odell Beckham Jr. there on a one-year deal. Flowers is a popular man with teams these days (I could see the Chiefs or Rams moving up to get him), and his jack-of-all-trades ability as a gadget guy, paired with an ability to develop into a Brandin Cooks–type of receiver, makes him a very good value here. It’d fun to see what new OC Todd Monken could do with him and Jackson together, both in the run game and the pass game.
23
Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR, USCAddison might be the draft’s best route-runner—I got comps to Calvin Ridley on him—and the Vikings are going to need an affordable option to take the heat off the soon-to-be-very-wealthy Justin Jefferson. The former USC and Pitt star can be that guy. I don’t see, for what it’s worth, the Vikings moving up for a quarterback. If Richardson gets to No. 23, I think they’d consider it. But this would be a good outcome, too (with linemen on both sides, guys like Harrison or Clemson’s Bryan Bresee, part of the equation as well).
24
Jacksonville Jaguars: Bryan Bresee, DL, ClemsonGM Trent Baalke has a roster that, impressively enough, doesn’t have a ton of holes left, and that gives him freedom to go best player available here. And Baalke’s always loved the big fellas, and guys who bring athletic traits, and Bresee checks both of those boxes. The Tigers star has the ability to play different spots along the line, and still hasn’t fully tapped his potential, and would be a very solid fit for Mike Caldwell’s multiple, pressure-happy scheme.
25
New York Giants: Myles Murphy, DE, ClemsonI think Mayer would be a very real consideration, as would Addison (who might give Brian Daboll some Stefon Diggs vibes). But as this mock has played out, both would be gone, and Murphy, whom the Giants traveled to go work out privately, would be a tremendous value. One thing to file away while we’re here—I get the sense the Giants staff really likes Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs. Would they take him, with the Saquon Barkley negotiation simmering? Probably not. But the idea of Gibbs playing for Daboll is pretty fun. Another fun idea that probably won’t happen, at least at No. 24? Pairing Darren Waller with mammoth Georgia TE Darnell Washington.
26
Dallas Cowboys: Will McDonald IV, DE/OLB, Iowa StateDemarcus Lawrence isn’t getting any younger, so getting some edge help—which would help enable DC Dan Quinn to use Micah Parsons every which way—would make a lot of sense for the Cowboys. McDonald could stand to get a little bigger, but that can happen with time, and adding a rusher as athletic as he is at this stage of the draft represents pretty good value.
27
Buffalo Bills: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCUI really did want to put North Carolina’s Josh Downs here, a player whom I think is a really nice Day 2 sleeper, and one who’d settle the need for a reliable slot that the Bills struggled to fill last year (hence bringing back Cole Beasley). But Johnston falling this far would give Buffalo a top-20 quality pick, and someone who could easily grow into Gabe Davis’s role in the offense, with Davis set to become a free agent a year from now. Also, you can find a slot later on.
28
Cincinnati Bengals: Calijah Kancey, DT, PittI’ve heard the Bengals are looking for more interior pass rushing, and the reality with this class is that once you get past Carter and Kancey, it’s slim pickings on true defensive tackles who can do it for you. So as much as I like the idea of Gibbs here, and as much as I think it’d be a consideration if he’s on the board, Kancey would be a sensible pick, if a small reach in the first round.
29
New Orleans Saints (via SF): Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas StateThe Saints are another potential trade-up team, perhaps for a pass rusher. But the way this has fallen, they find a hard-charging, stout, long defensive end who fits their mold for the edge. Now, they’d have to hope they get more out of him than they have with more recent first-rounders at the position (i.e., Marcus Davenport, Payton Turner).
30
Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, AlabamaGibbs at No. 30 would become the highest-drafted back in Philly in 37 years (hello, Keith Byars!), and Roseman could justify it by pointing to the pass-game value that the Bama burner brings to the table. Remember, Philly sniffed around on Alvin Kamara last year. Gibbs would give them a faster, less-shifty version of the Saints star.
31
Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison, OT, OklahomaHarrison’s a true left tackle, and would give the Chiefs the flexibility to either put Jawaan Taylor back at right tackle, where he played in Jacksonville, or move Harrison there. Either way, getting Harrison here (I think he could go in the teens) would be a steal for the Chiefs. Kansas City’s fished around on a trade up, and I think it’d be with Flowers or Gibbs as a target. If those guys aren’t there for K.C., I’d see Harrison in a group with Michigan DT Mazi Smith and Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt to be considered at No. 31.
