Welcome to my one and only 2023 mock draft. I’m not saying that to lay this down with any sort of authority, like I’m handing over some sort of sacred tome. I’m saying it more like I’m relieved I had to go through this only once, unlike the mockers who tinker with different versions throughout draft season.
The reason why this mock (possibly? probably?) stinks so much is that the quarterbacks will absolutely dismantle everyone’s board, and we’re not sure where they are going to land. I’m trying to stick with my understanding of the world before combine and smokescreen season, but one never knows how that will play out.
That said, these are for fun except when I nail some obscure pick and tweet about it for 10 years in a row. (You know who else had Bjoern Werner to the Colts in the first round back in 2013? NO ONE.) I hope you enjoy the process of reading it as much as I enjoyed putting it together.
1
Carolina Panthers (via CHI): Bryce Young, QB, AlabamaI didn’t write the book on Bryce Young, but I wrote about 4,000 words on him for the cover of May’s magazine. He’s special. He’s generationally talented, and I think he can process information better than any quarterback in this draft. I think he’s Drew Brees, and if you’re the Panthers, if you’ve traded all the way to No. 1, Brees is a lot easier to sell to your fan base than the other flawed quarterbacks in this draft.
2
Houston Texans: Tyree Wilson, edge, Texas TechI’m just going with my personal preference here, with Wilson over Will Anderson Jr. I just felt like Wilson needed more in his tool belt to get to the quarterback. But a lot of those skills can be learned, and I think new Texans coach DeMeco Ryans should appreciate how he needed to scrap and claw his way to this point. Maybe it’s not exactly a redo of Jadeveon Clowney versus Khalil Mack, but I feel like the circumstances are not dissimilar. I tend to err on the side of a smaller-program player who shines despite the resources, even though a player from a bigger school might flash more consistently against better talent.
3
Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson, Jr., edge, AlabamaHere’s what I think: The Cardinals will go with the best player available in lieu of finding a trade partner. While I could definitely see the Titans or Seahawks, among other teams, starting to make their way down the draft board, it is senseless in this current NFL economy to go all in for a player at the quarterback position if he is not certified generational. The Cardinals are a complete and total mess organizationally, so this would be a win for Jonathan Gannon, who can find someone to anchor his defense.
4
Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, KentuckyLevis as the second quarterback off the board? Levis as the second quarterback off the board. I have been admittedly fond of the Kentucky QB for a full calendar year now, and predicted last June that he would go No. 1. I have heard him likened to Matt Ryan. I think he’s big, tough and physical to handle the rigors of the position, especially in a division full of talented, defensive-minded coaches who will come after the passer.
5
Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): Christian Gonzalez, DB, OregonUnable to find an adequate trade partner, Seattle can stand pat and bolster its secondary. This will be a rejuvenative draft for the Seahawks’ defense, and they can press pause on finding the answer at quarterback until later on. While I love Anthony Richardson, I have not seen a Sean McVay–inspired offense prioritize size and athleticism. Geno Smith allows Seattle to be patient, and perhaps take a high-upside swing later in the draft.
6
Detroit Lions (via LAR): Peter Skoronski, OL, NorthwesternI think the Lions have discovered that a good running game will provide you with most of the answers to the test. While they have remaining time with offensive guru Ben Johnson calling the plays, the Lions will beef up on their strengths and maintain an advantage over a fairly weak division at the defensive line position. Skoronski would give them some long-term financial flexibility as well.
7
Las Vegas Raiders: Devon Witherspoon, DB, IllinoisJimmy Garoppolo is injury prone, but the Raiders are running out of time, aren’t they? With Sean Payton, Andy Reid and Kellen Moore now calling plays in the AFC West, a bad secondary will get ripped apart with regularity. Here, Witherspoon gets bumped down a bit due to Seattle’s size preference, but the Raiders provide their brilliant coordinator, Patrick Graham, with something he can use.
8
Atlanta Falcons: Nolan Smith, edge, GeorgiaThis is the ideal time in Atlanta’s franchise life cycle to bring in a young edge rusher. Veterans Bud Dupree and Calais Campell can help mold Smith, who can absolutely fly off the edge and create problems for the relatively stationary set of QBs within the division. I think Smith would be an instant terror for Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young and Derek Carr.
9
Chicago Bears (via CAR): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio StateI think Johnson is the most athletic of the remaining offensive tackles. At Ohio State, I saw a lot of smart maneuvering on the edge, which helped spring run plays that were either manipulating an edge defender, or quarterback runs that utilized the edge when a play broke down. The Bears are building this thing right, which means possibly taking an offensive tackle even if their offensive line held up better than expected a year ago.
10
Projected trade: Titans send picks No. 11 and No. 72 to Eagles for pick No. 10.
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In our first projected trade, the Titans move up one spot to get their quarterback, fearing that the Eagles would auction off the pick to the highest bidder, given that the Texans and Commanders are still in the mix at the position and need passers. This is one of those cute little Howie Roseman moves that somehow nets him a star later in the draft with the additional capital the Titans have to pay to move up one spot. While Anthony Richardson may be the more exciting player, I think Mike Vrabel prefers a quarterback who has more consistency and a bit more refinement. The Titans drafted Malik Willis a year ago, too.
11
Projected trade: Eagles send pick No. 10 to Titans for picks No. 11 and No. 72.
Eagles (via Titans): Jalen Carter, DT, GeorgiaWhen I checked in on Carter a few weeks ago, I heard his range was picks 10 to 15. I don’t think the Eagles believe their culture can fix everything, but I do think they possess a great deal of confidence in Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham as the kind of transcendent leaders who could get the best out of someone like Carter. They’d also be reuniting the former Bulldog with Jordan Davis, whom they selected a year ago in the first round.
12
Houston Texans (via CLE): Anthony Richardson, QB, FloridaThe Texans were not planning to make this pick, but if Richardson lands in their lap it would provide them with an ideal situation: a quarterback they can ease into the system. DeMeco Ryans has a six-year contract and, thus, is not afraid of taking some long-term swings. Richardson could fulfill the promise that many of Ryans’s former 49ers coworkers hoped Trey Lance would, which is to transform the team’s outside-zone scheme through mobility.
13
Green Bay Packers (via NYJ): Lukas Van Ness, edge, IowaIt would be pretty wild to see Green Bay break its first-round ban on wide receivers here, but the smart money goes on the Packers building their team with traits. Van Ness has a motor that doesn’t stop and can line up in multiple places. With him in place, the Packers’ perennially disappointing defense can finally come together.
14
New England Patriots: Joey Porter Jr., DB, Penn StateThere are probably a lot of other sensible things for the Patriots to do with this pick, but to select the son of an NFL defensive legend and take a defensive back at the same time would be too difficult an enticement for Bill Belichick to pass up. New England needs help in a lot of places, but the coach has a soft spot for this pick here. Elsewhere, Mike Tomlin punches the table in anger.
15
New York Jets (via GB): Darnell Wright, OT, TennesseeAaron Rodgers is coming, and there will be no patience for a leaky offensive line. Wright is attractive because he’s started a lot of games and experienced a lot of the best the SEC has to offer. While I’d argue he’s not the best mover for this offense, Rodgers is going to break away from outside zone in spots and want a true anchor tackle.
16
Washington Commanders: Broderick Jones, OT, GeorgiaThere are lots of ways the Commanders can go. If I were Ron Rivera, I would try to start my clock over again with new ownership coming. Hendon Hooker has a rope for an arm and Tennessee’s system is ripe for the plucking. That said, the Commanders’ brain trust rarely does anything that excites me. So, here’s your left tackle of the future instead.
17
Pittsburgh Steelers: Julius Brents, DB, Kansas StateThe Steelers need help in the secondary. With Patrick Peterson in house, this is the perfect year to take a swing at a really talented cornerback who can grow in the system. Brents, who is 6'3" and 198 pounds, is a bruiser of a dude, and with Porter off the board, Mike Tomlin can still get the classic Steelers feel. Brents allowed only 25 yards per game in the pass, according to Sports Info Solutions, during his final year with the Wildcats.
18
Detroit Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
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I have made the case in a few places, most recently with Robert Mays over at The Athletic Football Show, that I’d give Robinson a shot in the top 10. I just think that when every team is playing a Vic Fangio–style umbrella defense, sometimes you need a jackhammer. Now, it’s time to salivate: Imagine Robinson and D’Andre Swift running behind that offensive line. The Lions could absolutely suffocate their opponents and wouldn’t even need wideout Jameson Williams, who was suspended six games for gambling on non-NFL games.
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matthew Bergeron, OT, SyracuseA physical, smart offensive lineman from a school with an elite student newspaper, Bergeron can be part of the long-term rebuilding effort in Tampa Bay and immediately serve as help for Baker Mayfield and the rest of the quarterback room, now that there is a blind spot on the right side.
20
Seattle Seahawks: Myles Murphy, edge, ClemsonWith the picks of Gonzalez and now Murphy, I think the Seahawks would come out of the first round happy that their defense would be fortified. Then, they can henpeck through the later rounds of the draft to do what they’ve always done: Find athletic, supplemental playmakers, running backs and perhaps a developmental project to take on at the QB position behind Geno Smith.
21
Los Angeles Chargers: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, AlabamaKellen Moore is going to want the ball on the ground. Justin Herbert is going to want backs who can catch. Austin Ekeler already wants more money, which could complicate all sorts of long-term plans. The Chargers need help in a lot of places, but they also need to win right now. Gibbs is a win-right-now kind of pick.
22
Baltimore Ravens: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio StateIf nothing else, I think the Ravens, having just paid $18 million for a wide receiver who needed to have a new ACL surgically implanted, understand the value at the position. There is some attractiveness to selecting the first wide receiver off the board. This would also represent a secondary olive branch to one Lamar Jackson, following the Odell Beckham Jr. signing.
23
Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks, DB, MarylandThe Vikings’ current options at cornerback are … not great. They were not great last year, either. I would find it hard to imagine that Brian Flores would leave a good place in Pittsburgh to come to a threadbare defense that isn’t getting any lifeline extended to it. They should draft as many corners and safeties as they can while Harrison Smith is still in the building, too.
24
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dalton Kincaid, TE, UtahKincaid can be a slot receiver while he learns the ropes behind Evan Engram. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah compared Kincaid to a more athletic version of Zach Ertz. I know a coach who really enjoyed having Ertz—and multiple receiving tight ends—in the offense at the same time. Engram can play out the year on the franchise tag and move on in 2024.
25
New York Giants: Brian Branch, DB, AlabamaI would have to imagine Wink Martindale enjoyed watching Branch’s tape at Alabama, where the rangy defensive back appeared everywhere in Nick Saban’s defense. The Giants are currently rolling with Xavier McKinney and Bobby McCain at the safety spots.
26
Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre DameLet’s not overthink this one. Dallas found a stalwart in guard Zack Martin from the same program. The Cowboys have 2022 fourth-rounder Jake Ferguson as their starter now that Dalton Schultz moved on in free agency, but Mayer would give them the flexibility to play some big sets, ease pressure on Dak Prescott and give Tony Pollard some room to run.
27
Buffalo Bills: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
Gabe Davis hits the open market next year, and Stefon Diggs turns 30 after Thanksgiving. The Bills need to be mindful of replenishing the well alongside Josh Allen as Allen ages into this offense. It’s best receiver available time, after the Bills poured a firehose of resources into their pass rush and defensive backfield in recent years.
28
Cincinnati Bengals: DJ Turner, DB, MichiganThe Bengals are on to the final year of Chidobe Awuzie’s contract in Cincinnati. Turner fits the mold of blazing fast corners who can get to the ball. Cam Taylor-Britt, their second-round pick in 2022, posted a 4.38 at the combine. Turner blazed a 4.26. The Bengals know that the path to the Super Bowl still goes through Kansas City, and that means having as many talented defensive backs as possible.
29
New Orleans Saints (via SF): Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, NorthwesternSometimes, you take a step back and say, All right, so many people smarter than me have this one snapped together in place. In this case, that includes esteemed Saints sage Jeff Duncan, Michael Renner, formerly of PFF, and Danny Kelly of The Ringer. There is no need to make some kind of spicy head-turning pick here. The Saints know they need to contend for the division in 2023, and Dennis Allen needs some help up front.
30
Projected trade: Seahawks send picks No. 37 and No. 154 to Eagles for picks No. 30 and No. 219.
Seattle Seahawks: Hendon Hooker, QB, TennesseeLet’s project another trade, giving the Seahawks their third pick in the first round, here moving up to grab Hooker with the chance to sign him to a fifth-year option. Seattle wouldn’t have to waste much capital and climb up from pick No. 37. The Eagles, if you’ll remember, solicited a similar move back in 2018 when the Ravens came up to snag Lamar Jackson and a fifth-year option at No. 32.
31
Kansas City Chiefs: Will McDonald IV, edge, Iowa StateMcDonald would be a fine stylistic complement to the locomotive chugger George Karlaftis. The Chiefs’ punishment for being awesome is that they’ll have to build a pass rush through the last picks in the first round of the draft from here on out. McDonald had 10.5 sacks in both 2020 and ’21 and an astonishing 45 pressures in ’21, according to Sports Info Solutions.
