Five Georgia defenders were selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft, and the Bulldogs’ defense yields three more first-rounders in my first swing at an early ’23 mock draft.
In other words, last year’s elite defense will have yielded eight combined first-round picks in back-to-back drafts if next year’s draft plays out that way.
Georgia will have an offensive player join his defensive counterparts, and I strongly considered a second offensive prospect, which would have given the Bulldogs five first-rounders in back-to-back drafts.
Meanwhile, its biggest rival (Alabama) ties Georgia with four first-round picks in this mock. There are 19 schools represented, including a military academy.
While the defensive side of the ball (17) has more prospects than the offense (14) in this mock, there are four quarterbacks (all in the top 10), two tight ends and a running back in the first round.
With the caveat that a lot can and will change before next April—both in player evaluation and obviously the draft order itself—here’s a first look at how things could play out next spring. I will also revisit how the first round could play out at the midway point of the regular season.
Two quick notes before we get started. First, the draft order was determined using inverted Super Bowl odds from SI Sportsbook, then using presumed playoff seeds for the final 14 picks. Second, there are only 31 first-round picks this year because the Dolphins lost theirs as a punishment for tampering.
Jordan Prather/USA TODAY Sports (Will Levis); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Will Anderson Jr.); Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY Network (C.J. Stroud)
1. Atlanta Falcons: Will Anderson Jr., edge, Alabama
While it wouldn’t surprise me if the Falcons drafted a quarterback—Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud or Alabama’s Bryce Young—even after drafting Desmond Ridder in the third round last April, Anderson enters the 2022 college football season comfortably ranked as my top draft prospect and Atlanta is still early in its rebuild process. Rookie edge defenders Arnold Ebiketie (38th pick in ’22) and DeAngelo Malone (82nd) will help improve a pass rush that generated a league-low 18 sacks last season, but Anderson would give his hometown team a true difference maker. Anderson, who played his high school football less than 30 miles from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Hampton, Ga., led the nation in QB pressures in each of the past two seasons—60 in ’20 (as a true freshman) and 81 in ’21, per PFF stats. Anderson’s not just an elite pass rusher, he’s also an outstanding run defender as well.
2. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Considering the difficult circumstances, Davis Mills exceeded expectations as a rookie. Depending on how comfortable the Texans are with Mills’s development as a full-year starter in 2022, it’s possible that they’ll go in a different direction (than quarterback) next April, as the organization still has plenty of holes to address. There would be a strong trade market for the Texans to trade back in that scenario. While Stroud benefits from having an elite group of pass catchers at his disposal in Columbus, he throws with excellent anticipation and accuracy to allow his receivers to make plays. In his first year as a starter, Stroud continued to get better as the season progressed. Given his combination of arm strength, accuracy, size, mobility and smart decision making, Stroud is my QB1 in this draft class.
3. New York Jets: Jalen Carter, IDL, Georgia
The Georgia defense featured five first-round picks last year, including two defensive tackles, but Carter was the most talented player on that historic defense. Stout against the run and disruptive as an interior pass rusher, Carter is light on his feet for a 310-pounder with the explosive movements, body control and powerful hands to make plays behind, and up and down, the line of scrimmage.
4. Seattle Seahawks: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Seahawks have declared Geno Smith the winner of his quarterback competition with Drew Lock, but let’s face it, neither Smith nor Lock is the long-term answer to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle. While Young is a bit undersized, the Heisman Trophy winner has the demeanor and composure to never let the moment get too big for him. Young threw for 4,872 yards, 47 touchdowns and seven interceptions as he led the Crimson Tide to a national championship in his first season as a starter.
5. Chicago Bears: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
Whether Chicago uses its 2023 first-rounder on the offensive line or playmakers, it’s clear that the Bears need to put more talent around Justin Fields. Boutte closed his freshman season with an SEC-record 308 receiving yards against Ole Miss and led the team in receiving yards (509) and touchdowns (nine) in an abbreviated six-game season (ankle injury). Boutte uses his outstanding speed to rack up yards after the catch in bunches.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Ohio State had two receivers—Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave—selected within the first 11 picks of last year’s draft, but it was Smith-Njigba that led the team in receiving (95/1,606/9) as a true sophomore. While Olave and Wilson opted out of the Rose Bowl, Smith-Njigba went off for 15 catches, 347 yards and three TDs in that game. He closed the season with 60/958/6 over his final five games. The knock will be his lack of top-end speed, but JSN is a savvy route runner with good body control and strong hands.
7. Detroit Lions: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Jared Goff is under contract through 2024, but the Lions have a potential out after the upcoming season. Levis enters his second season as Kentucky’s starter with experience playing under center in a pro-style offense. While he looks to improve his anticipation and accuracy this season, Levis has a prototypical size, a big arm and excellent mobility with the ability to make plays from both inside and outside the pocket.
8. Carolina Panthers: Myles Murphy, edge, Clemson
With three quarterbacks already off the board, I have the Panthers passing on the QB4, especially given that they drafted Matt Corral in the third round in 2022. Carolina can instead look to replenish its supply of pass rushers. Haason Reddick (11 sacks last year) is now in Philadelphia and Brian Burns (nine sacks) will be playing on his fifth-year option, absent a new contract, in ’23. Murphy has a quick first step for a 275-pounder and uses his power and length well to rush the passer and defend the run.
9. New York Giants: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Giants declined their fifth-year option on Daniel Jones, putting them in the market for a replacement in 2023 and beyond. Albeit inexperienced (66 pass attempts entering ’22), Richardson has a unique set of physical tools. The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman noted in his annual list of college football freaks that, “We never have many quarterbacks on this list, but this is a rare athlete.” While there is quite a bit of projection required here as he enters his first season as the starter, his unique skill set could entice Brian Daboll, Joe Schoen & Co. to take a chance on Richardson’s enormous upside, especially given their previous success in developing a toolsy quarterback in Buffalo.
10. Washington Commanders: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Neither Kendall Fuller nor William Jackson III are under contract past 2023, and Jackson turns 30 in October. Ringo is a former five-star recruit with an elite combination of size (6'2", 205 pounds) and speed (4.35 40-yard dash). In addition to his elite speed and closing burst, he plays physically at the line of scrimmage and in run support.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
With Rashawn Slater opting out of the 2020 season, Skoronski immediately stepped in as a Day 1 starter at left tackle for the Wildcats. The grandson of former Packers OT Bob Skoronski is fundamentally and technically sound, with the athleticism and movement skills to stay outside, but he may be ideally suited to shift inside given his lack of length.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY Network
12. New England Patriots: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Johnson started at right guard for the Buckeyes in 2021, but he will shift to his more natural left tackle position as Nicholas Petit-Frere’s replacement. The former five-star recruit has outstanding size, length and movement skills. Even if the Patriots’ early trade attempts of Isaiah Wynn have “yielded limited interest so far,” the oft-injured tackle will be a free agent in ’23.
13. Minnesota Vikings: Nolan Smith, edge, Georgia
Smith was the top national recruit in 2019 and really started to come into his own in ’21. While already an outstanding run defender, Smith lacks polish as a pass rusher. As he continues to refine his pass-rush moves and plan, however, that combined with his explosive athleticism, length and motor give him plenty of upside.
14. Las Vegas Raiders: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
If either Skoronski or Johnson were available here, an offensive tackle would certainly be in play for the Raiders, as Alex Leatherwood has been a major disappointment. Four of the team’s top corners—Trayvon Mullen, Rock Ya-Sin, Anthony Averett and Darius Phillips—are scheduled to become free agents. Smith is a confident and patient corner with good length and outstanding ball skills. Smith has five interceptions over the past two years.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints): Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
While the Eagles drafted Jordan Davis in the first round in April, Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox will be 30 and 32 years old, respectively, and Howie Roseman loves to build through the trenches. Bresee was the top overall recruit in the 2020 cycle and could very well be the best player available on Philadelphia’s board if he’s still available here. While Bresee’s ’21 season was cut short due to a torn ACL, he’s at his best as a disruptive 3-technique due to his explosive first step, power and nonstop motor.
16. Houston Texans (via Browns): Isaiah Foskey, edge, Notre Dame
Had Foskey declared for the 2022 draft, he likely would have been a top-50 pick, and continued development could catapult him (high) into the first round. Foskey had 11 sacks and six forced fumbles as a junior. Jonathan Greenard had a strong second season in Houston (eight sacks in 13 games). Greenard and Foskey would give the Texans a talented pair of young defensive ends.
Watch CFB games live with fuboTV: Start a free trial today!
17. Tennessee Titans: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Mayer has led Notre Dame in receptions in each of his two seasons in South Bend. He has strong hands and body control to make contested catches, and is tough to bring down after the catch. Even though the Titans used a fourth-round pick in 2022 on Chigoziem Okonkwo, both Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim will be free agents after the upcoming season. Mayer has plenty of experience playing in-line and is an asset as a blocker in the run game as well.
18. Arizona Cardinals: Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
Cornerback ranks near the top of Arizona’s team needs, and Byron Murphy will be a free agent next spring. Ricks, a former five-star recruit and a transfer from LSU, uses his length and physical style to excel in press-man coverage. His instincts and understanding of route concepts put himself in position to generate turnovers, and he had four interceptions as a true freshman in 2020.
19. Cincinnati Bengals: Arik Gilbert, TE, Georgia
The Bengals had tremendous success reuniting Joe Burrow with former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase in 2021. A top-five national recruit out of high school, Gilbert had 35/368/2 receiving as a true freshman at LSU in ’20. Gilbert sat out ’21 for personal reasons and he now joins a loaded tight end depth chart in Athens, but his combination of size and athleticism makes him a true mismatch that could vault him into the TE1 spot in ’23 if he breaks out this season.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: Antonio Johnson, DB, Texas A&M
Johnson’s positional versatility stands out, as he has mostly played nickel cornerback and some strong safety, and coach Jimbo Fisher has said that Johnson will “do a little bit of everything” in 2022. The 6'3" defensive back uses his size, length and physicality to make plenty of plays near the line of scrimmage.
21. Indianapolis Colts: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Gonzalez is a 6'2" corner with outstanding length, speed and athleticism. Appearing on Bruce Feldman’s 2022 freaks list, Gonzalez reached 23.3 mph on GPS and posted a 42" vertical jump this offseason. Stephon Gilmore will turn 32 in a few weeks and Brandon Facyson will become a free agent in ’23.
22. Dallas Cowboys: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
Micah Parsons was not only NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year but a First-Team All-Pro selection as he led the Cowboys with 13 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. But both Leighton Vander Esch and Anthony Barr are on one-year contracts for the 2022 season. Adding Simpson to the linebacking corps would help allow Dallas to free up Parsons to be utilized more as a pass rusher. Like Parsons, Simpson is a versatile defender and freakish athlete (he runs the 40-yard dash in the high 4.3s).
Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports
23. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Addison posted elite production (100/1,593/17) in 2021 at Pitt. With Kenny Pickett off to the NFL, the Biletnikoff Award–winning wideout transferred to USC to play with Caleb Williams in Lincoln Riley’s offense. While he’s not the biggest or strongest receiver, Addison uses his quickness, fluidity and savvy route running to make plays at all three levels.
24. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos): Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
The younger brother of Lions tackle Penei Sewell, Noah is a physically imposing linebacker at 251 pounds. Despite his throwback size, he’s not only powerful but he has good speed and better range than you’d expect for a linebacker his size.
25. Miami Dolphins (via 49ers): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
It wouldn’t surprise me if Robinson was off the board much earlier than this. As much as I like Chase Edmonds as part of a committee, Robinson has a complete featured-back skill set. With his elite burst, vision and ability to break tackles, he’s always a threat to make a big play.
26. Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Chargers have more than $52 million in combined salary cap committed to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in 2024, the final year of their current contracts. In the short term, Johnston would give Justin Herbert another big-play weapon as the 6'4" receiver has 4.4 speed and has averaged 20.0 yards per reception at TCU. Longer term, he has the talent and upside to develop into L.A.’s WR1.
27. Green Bay Packers: Tyree Wilson, edge, Texas Tech
Wilson is a versatile defender who had his best season in 2021 with seven sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss, leading the Red Raiders in both stats. New defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter will use Wilson as an outside linebacker and defensive end in his scheme, and Wilson (6'6", 275 pounds) has the length, power and athleticism that could push him into the first round if he takes another step in production and development as a pass rusher.
28. Detroit Lions (via Rams): Andre Carter II, edge, Army
The last Army prospect drafted was LB Caleb Campbell, whom the Lions took 218th in 2008. This time, I have Detroit using a much earlier pick on Carter, who recorded 15.5 sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss and four forced fumbles in ’21. Per PFF, his 26.0% pass-rush win rate ranked second among FBS edge defenders. Even though the Lions drafted Aiden Hutchinson No. 2 (and Josh Paschal in the second round), it’d be easy to see why Dan Campbell would love Carter’s leadership and intangibles.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland
Now entering his fourth season as Maryland’s starting left tackle, Duncan has the athletic feet, balanced movements and mirroring skills to stay at left tackle at the next level. After designating Orlando Brown Jr. with the franchise tag this spring, the Chiefs were unable to work out a long-term agreement for Patrick Mahomes’s blind-side protector even though they “got really close.” If the Chiefs were to find themselves in a similar situation in 2023, Duncan would offer them an athletic tackle to develop as insurance.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Two of Tampa Bay’s top three cornerbacks in terms of snaps played—Jamel Dean (823) and Sean Murphy Bunting (524)—will be impending free agents after this season. The son of the former Steelers outside linebacker, Porter is a big and long corner who plays a physical brand of football in both a good way and bad (penalties).
31. Buffalo Bills: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents after the 2022 and ’23 seasons, respectively, and both safeties are on the wrong side of 30. Adding Branch here would make sense for a team with Super Bowl expectations and few holes on the roster. The Bills appreciate versatility in their safeties, and Branch has a versatile skill set that has allowed Nick Saban to use him in a variety of roles on the back end.
Editors’ note, Aug. 31 at 12:42 p.m. ET: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that Arik Gilbert and Joe Burrow were teammates at LSU.
