Ten days left, and we have a draft-heavy version of the Takeaways …
The trail of clues on the first pick in the draft keeps leading back to Bryce Young becoming a Panther. Last week, we mentioned the amount of time the team brass spent with Young (and the time put in with Young’s parents), as well as Young’s S2 score—a 98, better than previous high scorers Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Fields—and how owner David Tepper is said to be a believer in the cognitive test.
This week, there’s a smaller detail coming—Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Kentucky’s Will Levis will come in for their 30 visits Tuesday. On one hand, sometimes teams do bring in the players they’re most interested in closer to the deadline for such visits (that’s Wednesday). On the other, if Carolina was going to do a full day of introducing Stroud to everyone in the building, chances are they’d bring him in without another QB there.
Young, for what it’s worth, came in on his own. And it makes sense he’d be the pick, if he indeed is. And, yes, I’m definitely making way too much of this.
Matthew OHaren/USA TODAY Sports (Stroud); Marvin Gentry/USA TODAY Sports (Young)
That said, it’s not unanimous, but in making calls this week, there’s a strong consensus on two things with Young. One, he has the best tape of the quarterbacks in the draft. And two, if he was 6'3" and 220 pounds, there’d be no discussion on who was going first. “Outside of the size,” said one offensive coordinator, “he does everything the way you want a QB to do it.”
At any rate, the visits from Stroud and Levis wrap up an exhaustive couple of months of work on the class for Carolina GM Scott Fitterer and coach Frank Reich. It’s just about decision time.
Bijan Robinson, to me, remains one of the draft’s most interesting players. I was having a conversation with a GM on Friday, and we were sifting through the complex case of Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter. And in what’s become almost a throwaway line for me in discussing Carter, I said, “Yeah, but he’s the best player in the class, right?”
“I’d say him and the running back,” the GM responded.
The running back, of course, is Robinson, and I’ve found about zero pushback on the sort of prospect he is—one that’s very much in the class that Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley and Todd Gurley (arguably the three best prospects at the position over the past decade or so) were coming out. Elliott and Barkley went inside the top five, and Gurley was the 10th pick despite having a torn ACL, to go with an otherwise very checkered medical background.
And, yet, it’d be an upset if Robinson, perhaps the cleanest prospect in this class, went within the top 10. That’s despite the fact that the Longhorns star should be a Week 1 starter, will be very affordable for at least the next three years and, by every account I can find, should outpace the grade that every other skill guy in this year’s draft would draw.
Athlon Sports 2023 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 50 Prospects
The problem, by the way, analytically, wouldn’t be he can’t impact the game enough. It’s that it’s too easy to get good at that particular position, and there’s a well-founded consensus that you really don’t need to be great at tailback to win. The Chiefs just won a Super Bowl with a seventh-round rookie (Isiah Pacheco) and a former first-rounder (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) in street clothes as a healthy scratch.
The Eagles, meanwhile, let their former second-rounder who started that game, Miles Sanders, walk in free agency without much resistance, confident they’d be able to replace him—even if, at the time, they didn’t have a real replacement on the roster. (Philadelphia wound up scooping up oft-injured ex-Seattle first-rounder Rashaad Penny in the aftermath).
So in the wake of all that, we get this once-in-every-few-drafts type of prospect. Does he fall into the teens? The 20s? The answer, as I see it, will say a lot about where the league stands on the continued devaluing of the position.
Budda Baker would be a good value if you can get him for, say, a second- or third-round pick. I’d heard, from people who know Baker, that this has been brewing for a while, and that the safety was wary about having to start over again, having had the experience of playing for three head coaches his first three years in the league. And now, going into his seventh year, he wants to be traded to chase a championship.
So at 27, is he still the guy he has been?
“He’s still that guy,” says one assistant coach who’s worked with him. “He’s the leader of all leaders. I’d stand on the table for 10 times over for a guy like Budda, and what he brings to a locker room, classroom, to practice and then you see the way he plays. He’s not changing his style on any of that, it’s who he is, it’s what makes him special. If I had a chance to get him, I’d get him in a heartbeat.”
“He’s still a high-level player,” a rival NFC exec says. “There’s minimal trade precedent at the position; the Jamal Adams trade to Seattle and Minkah [Fitzpatrick] trade to Pittsburgh are most applicable, both involved 1s [draft picks]. But both players were younger and under contract. You’d think, given the contract issue and positional value, scheme fit, it’d be a second or third for him.”
Indeed, if Baker demands a new contract as part of the deal, then that factors in—he’s due $13.1 million in cash this year, and $14.2 million in cash next year. And if he’s willing to play at those numbers? Baker can play over the slot, cover tight ends and play the post, plus he’s such an effective blitzer that you can dictate coverage with him. There’s also the play-saving element he brings with his instincts in the run game.
So if I’m, say, the Broncos, with Vance Joseph there, and I have a young receiver to spare for a team that might need one post–DeAndre Hopkins, would I think about it? I sure would.
The Jeff Okudah trade could have a material impact on the draft. The Lions traded away the former third pick in the draft for a fifth-rounder last week, which is a sign of just how far the Ohio State All-American has fallen in the eyes of NFL folks. He still has the rare combination of size, athleticism and movement skills that made him a top-of-the-draft player in the first place, which is, of course, why the Falcons took a swing on him.
But, again, that price tag shows you where he’s at now, after failing to reach expectations under two coaching staffs in Detroit. My understanding is, with both Matt Patricia’s staff and Dan Campbell’s staff, Okudah would get in a funk when things didn’t go his way, which is a tough issue to overcome at a position where keeping a short-term memory is a prerequisite. As a result, the Falcons are getting a player who’ll need his confidence rebuilt.
The good news is the Falcons already have a No. 1 corner, in Okudah’s draft classmate A.J. Terrell, so they won’t be asking the world of Okudah. And the move helps GM Terry Fontenot from a draft standpoint, too. With the offensive line squared away after the re-signings of Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary, and the defensive front bolstered after adding David Onyemata, Calais Campbell, Bud Dupree and Kaden Elliss, corner was the spot where Atlanta needed help. So getting Okudah means Fontenot can go any which way with the No. 8 pick this year.
So if, say, Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson (who may remind new defensive coordinator and former Saints assistant Ryan Nielsen of Cameron Jordan) is there, it’d be very easy for Fontenot to pull the trigger.
Meanwhile, for the Lions, this only underscores the need they have at corner. And in looking at what Campbell and DC Aaron Glenn covet in the position, other teams believe Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon is going to be really attractive to Detroit at No. 6. Which would mean, through this reclamation-project transaction, Witherspoon could jump a couple of spots in the draft.
If Josh Harris can push the Commanders purchase over the goal line, the NFL will see that as a pretty significant win. The 2018 sale of the Panthers can be instructive on this one. Tepper landed the franchise despite being outbid by Carolina native Ben Navarro. The sale of the Broncos can be, too. The Pat Bowlen Trust bypassed an offer from Harris himself, at $5 billion, balking at the condition that the offer couldn’t be shopped, before accepting the Waltons’s bid at $4.65 billion.
So why would these owners turn down … more money?
Because as much good as it does for the owners to raise the bar on what it costs to buy a team, they remain selective as to who they want in their club. In the Panthers’ case, the idea of bringing in one of the country’s preeminent hedge-fund managers was appealing. In the Broncos’ case, the idea of adding royalty of American industry to their ranks was too much to pass up, even with someone as well liked and respected as Harris willing to pay more.
Falling short but getting through all the vetting put Harris (a part owner of the NBA’s Sixers and NHL’s Devils already) in line, the same way Shad Khan once was when he fell short in an attempt to buy his hometown Rams, or Tepper and Jimmy Haslam were when they were minority owners of the Steelers. Coming out of the Broncos process, the other owners, many of whom already knew Harris, felt pretty strongly that he had the business acumen, and the capital, to add to their club and be a member in good standing over the long term.
He was, in other words, clean across the board, which isn’t always the case. (There were concerns over the business practices of Navarro, for one, in 2019, and this time around with Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta, that affected how other owners would weigh in.)
Which is why, as a team president put it Thursday, Harris closing in on buying the Commanders was universally seen as “a good outcome for the league.”
It should, by the way, be a good outcome for fans of the franchise, too. It’s widely expected that with the departure of Daniel Snyder, D.C. politicians will open up again to the idea of building a new stadium at the old RFK site, which would be a boon for just about everyone, and could lead to a Super Bowl in the district. And I don’t need to tell people in D.C. what it could mean from a football standpoint.
Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports
The Dalvin Cook situation is a good example of why details really do matter in how a contract is constructed. And I’ll say this with full acknowledgment Cook did well to get paid by the Vikings what he did—it’s hard for anyone at his position to land that paycheck. Over the past three years, he made $27.22 million. Given he was initially on the books for $1.33 million for 2022, that’s nearly $13 million per year for two years in new money.
Now, the flip side brings a lesson in NFL economics.
He had an early trigger in his contract that made a $2 million injury guarantee for this year fully guaranteed on St. Patrick’s Day. So, at a baseline, he’ll make that much this year. But that number, for the Vikings (in a year where they’re resetting things financially), isn’t debilitating enough to where they couldn’t just pick it up, hold his rights later into the offseason and gain leverage with opportunity elsewhere for Cook drying up.
Cook could force the Vikings to cut him now. But at this point of the offseason, he’d do it knowing most other teams have made their plans at his position, spent their cap-cash budgets and are looking at a loaded class of backs in the draft. In other words, Cook takes what they want him to, or risks hitting a very soft market.
What could’ve prevented this? A big March roster bonus, for one, would have forced the Vikings to make a decision on a sizable sum of money without offsets attached to it. In that circumstance, Minnesota would’ve had to make a decision earlier, which could’ve gotten Cook either a more favorable renegotiation at home, or on the market at the start of free agency, when more teams would have the roster spot, role and money for him.
Instead, I’d say, there’s a good chance his best deal will be to return to the Vikings for less money. Which, again, is how those little details agreed to three years wind up becoming a very big deal.
With pro days wrapping up, I was reminded the other day of a conversation I had with Steelers coach Mike Tomlin about this time of year. I think it’s relevant now because it helps explain why Tomlin is so good at his job—and how he’s continued to be able to connect and get the most out of his players at a point in his Steelers career, going on 17 seasons now, when other coaches’ messages would’ve long since gone stale.
This was two summers ago, and Tomlin was explaining how he’s found a way to keep going when, at the time, he was passing his predecessor, Bill Cowher, for tenure in Pittsburgh. He raised the annual tour of pro days he does on his own, and in particular how he has a list of schools (Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State among them) he goes to annually.
“I got a bunch of relationships, man,” Tomlin said. “Those teams are consistently in the mix for a reason, and they got guys coming into the draft every year, so they become routine stops. And in the midst of those routine stops, you got time to do some side projects and gain some understanding. … I stay connected to college football coaches. I learn a lot from them. When I’m evaluating in the spring, and going out and preparing for the draft, I’m also studying programs and coaches and seeing what’s important to them, and the lives of the people they work with, because invariably those are gonna be some of the people that I work with.
“That’s a process that I start anew every year. Got good relationships with guys that coach in college, so, Hey, take me to your social media coordinator, let me spend five minutes with them and see the points of emphasis they’re making to the 18-year-olds that are coming into your program.”
To that end, I was with a college coach at the combine back in March, and remembering this, I saw him stop the guy, and say, “Hey, so you know, really respect what you do.”
And, in the moment, though few would know it, Tomlin was probably making the Steelers just a little better for it.
Because we need an Aaron Rodgers update every week, I’d say we’re status quo on that. So I’ll reiterate my sense that there’s a basic agreement on the 2023 pick—it’ll be one of the Jets’ second-rounders—involved, and this is going to come down to how the ’24 pick (and possible ’25 pick) is dressed up.
With that in mind, there are two questions to be answered. Is the 2024 a hard first-rounder (guaranteeing a pick between Nos. 1 and 32) or one with a playoff (making it picks 19–50), conference title game (picks 29–60) or Super Bowl (picks 31–62) condition on it? And if it were to be a hard first-rounder, could the Packers offer protection for the Jets against the possibility that Rodgers retires after a single year (potentially with a ’25 pick giveback)?
The GMs, as I see it, have been creative in trying to find solutions. The head coaches, as is well documented, are best friends. So at this point, with a deal really a few details away, it comes down to the leaders those guys answer to—Jets owner Woody Johnson and Packers president Mark Murphy—to push this one over the goal line.
And we’ll give you a Lamar Jackson update while we’re there, too. Yes, the Ravens overpaid a little for Odell Beckham Jr. But if it ultimately leads to Jackson doing a long-term deal (there was no guarantee of that as part of the Beckham agreement), then the $15 million guarantee the Ravens gave OBJ will be money well spent.
I think what the Ravens have been looking for from Jackson, at this point, is some level of compromise where, maybe in one category or another, Baltimore can walk away feeling like it got the right deal. With Beckham aboard, there’s at least a better chance Jackson will give the Ravens that—with the caveat here being that this whole situation has been uniquely unpredictable, so I wouldn’t want that taken as a harbinger of things to come.
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
We’ve got some quick-hitting draft takeaways for you with what we’re hearing with the big night just 10 days away …
• The Eagles are really high on where Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean are going into their second years, and that could, potentially, work to help Jalen Carter with Philly, should he slide to the bottom of the top 10. For one, as one executive who’s worked with GM Howie Roseman in the past put it, “Howie loves going all in on certain programs, so if he has success with a couple guys from one school, he can go overboard.” And two, having Davis and Dean, in theory at least, would help Philly get Carter past the litany of issues he’s had.
Hitting on Carter would give the Eagles the perfect heir to Fletcher Cox, as the dominant 3-technique for the Philly front.
• I thought at the beginning of all this, I’d find a few teams that viewed Northwestern tackle Peter Skoronski as a guard. Instead, I’ve found few that see him as a tackle. I’ve gotten Zack Martin comps from a number of teams—Martin played left tackle at Notre Dame before becoming a perennial All-Pro guard—and even had a team say his best position might be center. Now, you could point to Rashawn Slater, Skoronski’s former teammate who had a similar issue with length, for a tackle. But scouts saw Slater as a little more able to make up for it with his ability to cover ground quickly.
• The flip side is Paris Johnson Jr., who looks like he was created in a left tackle lab, but is still young and needs to get bigger and stronger for the NFL game. The good news is he checks all the character boxes, so you can count on him working to get there. And, again, the stuff you can’t teach is all there. “I bet 26 of 32 teams have Paris over Skoronski,” says one AFC exec, whose logic was rooted in a simple question: How high can you take a guard?
• Tyree Wilson’s 30 visits—and he was with the Jaguars, Cardinals, Raiders and Patriots last week—are important, both for the chance to make an impression as a still-developing prospect, and because it gave those teams a chance to get one last look at his foot. Wilson initially injured it back in November, and though he was cleared by renowned foot-ankle specialist Dr. Robert Anderson, those visits provide the opportunity to get players with team physicians, thus giving those clubs one last look at the Texas Tech star medically. All this taken into account? Wilson makes a lot of sense for teams such as Seattle, Detroit and Atlanta.
• The Will Anderson Jr.–Tyree Wilson debate is, for sure, a live one for a lot of teams. Those in Anderson’s corner say his tape is better (and his football character is impeccable). Those in Wilson’s corner believe Anderson is too limited athletically and, as is the reputation for Alabama stars, maxed out because of the incredible environment he’s coming from, while Wilson has a lot of room still to grow. “He’s a really good player,” says one AFC exec of Anderson. “I was expecting more. I don’t see a top-10 pick. He’s got the pedigree, the hype, great kid. I just didn’t see an elite pass rusher.”
• Add the above up, and I think, for most, the top tier of the draft is composed of the three pass rushers (Carter, Anderson, Wilson), the top two offensive linemen (Skoronski, Johnson), the top two corners (Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez) and the star do-it-all tailback (Robinson), with varying opinions on which quarterbacks would be in that mix. After that, and opinions do vary, I think there’s a drop-off, meaning after the top dozen picks or so, you’ll find guys who may not be that different than the 40th or 50th pick.
• With that established, it will still be tough for the Cardinals to move the third pick to a team coming up for anything but a quarterback. And history tells us that. Over the past 10 drafts, six teams have traded up into the top five. In 2013 the Dolphins did it for Oregon DE Dion Jordan. In ’14 the Bills did it for Clemson WR Sammy Watkins. In the eight drafts since, it’s happened only four times, and in all four cases the move up was for a quarterback (Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold and Trey Lance were those quarterbacks).
• That means Stroud slipping past the Texans at No. 2 would be a pretty good development for Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort. There are said to be fans of Stroud in Indy’s building, and the Colts pick fourth.
• Everyone, at this point, knows how strong the tight end group is. A couple of teams have theorized it could mean fewer of them (or even none of them) going in the first round, as a result of GMs knowing there’ll be quality players available to them Friday night, in the second and third rounds.
• To wrap up, Conor Orr asked me on the pod this week to identify a couple of draft sleepers, and so I figured we’d document that here: North Carolina WR Josh Downs and Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave could wind up being better pros than people think. And since that’s based on what some NFL folks I talk to think, maybe that means they go a little higher than people think, too.
