It’s not too often a team wins 13 games, takes the division crown and is still nearly universally dismissed without losing key pieces.
Yet that’s what we see entering 2023 within the NFC North. The Vikings were dominant a year ago, rolling to the division title by four games. And still, despite running back Dalvin Cook being the only significant loss of the offseason, Minnesota is largely expected to fall off after winning a record-setting 11 one-score games in ’22.
Going into August, the NFC North faces a litany of questions, including whether the Vikings can ride an improved defense to avoid regression, whether the Lions are ready for real expectations and, of course, Jordan Love in Green Bay.
Chicago Bears
Do the Bears have enough in the pass defense?This offseason, the Bears upgraded the roster in myriad ways, including a trade for receiver DJ Moore along with the signings of linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards.
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However, Chicago general manager Ryan Poles didn’t add any notable veterans to address corner or edge rusher, leaving both positions with significant uncertainty.
Last year the Bears finished with 20 sacks, worst in the NFL. (They were led by a safety in rookie Jaquan Brisker, who had four.) Poles’s answer to the issue was shockingly relaxed, signing defensive end DeMarcus Walker to a three-year deal. Walker is a nice player but has only 19.5 sacks across six NFL seasons, albeit a career-high seven in 2022.
On the back end, Poles used a late-second-round pick on corner Tyrique Stevenson, who will play alongside youngsters Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. Johnson has talent but hasn’t stayed on the field, missing 11 games across three seasons while totaling just one interception. As a rookie last season, Gordon was inconsistent, receiving a Pro Football Focus grade of 49.8.
While the second level of Chicago’s defense should be excellent, the other two groups are major concerns.
Detroit Lions
Did the Lions add enough talent to fix their secondary?
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Very few teams have spent more effort upgrading their defense over the past two years than the Lions.
Since the arrival of general manager Brad Holmes, Detroit has invested heavily, including drafting two first-rounders in edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and linebacker Jack Campbell. During free agency this winter, Holmes signed corners Emmanuel Moseley and Cam Sutton, along with safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson to completely revamp a secondary that ranked 30th in passing yards allowed last season.
But were the moves enough? Gardner-Johnson was a Pro Bowl snub in the eyes of many in 2022, but he is now on his third team in as many years and is playing on a one-year deal. Moseley is coming over from the 49ers after he tore his ACL in Week 5 last season. Over his last three seasons in San Francisco, Moseley missed 22 contests.
For the Lions, this secondary must come together quickly. They’ll face the Chiefs in Week 1, before seeing the high-powered Seahawks the next week. Last year Seattle went to Ford Field in Week 4 and scored 48 points.
If Detroit’s defensive backfield can show immediate and lasting improvement, the Lions have a good shot to win their first division crown since 1993.
Green Bay Packers
Will Jordan Love be ready after sitting for three years?
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Since being a first-round pick out of Utah State in 2020, Love has thrown 83 passes as an NFL quarterback. Now he’s taking over the Packers after their fans have watched Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers give them 31 consecutive years of first-ballot, Hall of Fame play.
No pressure.
In OTAs this spring, coach Matt LaFleur talked about his expectations for Love and the offense, saying it will be a process that lasts the entire year. Of course, if Green Bay has designs on competing in the NFC North, Love has to be a quick study. Around him, the Packers have a host of young talent, including receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, along with tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.
However, with so many important offensive pieces in their first or second years—along with Love’s inexperience despite entering his fourth campaign—is it reasonable to expect much from the unit early on?
If Green Bay succeeds in 2023, it’ll likely be because its talented defense plays well, and the running back combination of AJ Dillion and Aaron Jones carries the burden while Love acclimates to his new role.
Minnesota Vikings
How much of an impact will Brian Flores have?
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Last season, the Vikings went 13–4 despite having the league’s 29th-ranked defense, measured by yards per play. The group, helmed by defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, was a disaster all year, culminating in a 31–24 wild-card loss to the Giants in which Daniel Jones threw for 301 yards and two scores.
After the defeat, Donatell was fired as a one-and-done failure. He was eventually replaced with Flores, who came over after serving as linebackers coach in 2022 with the Steelers (following three campaigns as the head coach of the Dolphins). In Miami, Flores oversaw a defense that ranked 30th, 20th and 15th as the talent improved annually.
With the Vikings, Flores is inheriting a unit short on playmakers. Defensive end Danielle Hunter is phenomenal, having posted at least 10.5 sacks in three of his previous four seasons, but it’s otherwise a middling front seven. On the back end, veteran safety Harrison Smith remains a quality player, as is free-agent signing Byron Murphy Jr. on the perimeter.
Still, if Minnesota’s defense is going to ascend from horrid to respectable, it’ll be because of Flores’s scheme, plus some timely calls from the sideline.
