There are currently more developmental pathways that could potentially lead to the NBA than ever before, and that’s exciting for scouts and evaluators.
As of right now, it is possible that none of the first three players who will hear their names called in the 2023 NBA Draft will play college basketball next season. France’s Victor Wembanyama is joined by G League Ignite’s Scoot Henderson and Overtime Elite’s Amen Thompson as the most touted prospects in the class thus far.
That could change, however, now that the college basketball season is now underway. No one predicted Ja Morant would become the No. 2 overall pick before his sophomore season at Murray State began.
No one is able to predict the draft even on the day of the event. Remember what happened with Paolo Banchero during the offseason? That came out of nowhere!
So while it’s a fool’s errand to pretend like we’re confident in our predictions this early in the season, it’s a nice barometer check to see what kind of player could be available when your favorite team is on the clock.
Our draft order is based on win-loss projections from FiveThirtyEight. Based on what we know about these players, here is how we predict the 2023 NBA Draft.
1
Houston Rockets: Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92 (France), International, 7-3
Victor Wembanyama is closer to an alien than he is to a typical basketball prospect. As one Western Conference executive recently told The Athletic’s David Aldridge, he could break both of his legs and still go No. 1 overall.
2
Detroit Pistons: Scoot Henderson
Ignite, G League, 6-2
Even if he lives under the shadow of Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson is still a mesmerizing prospect in his own right. Wembanyama said if he were never born, Henderson would be the No. 1 overall pick.
3
Orlando Magic: Amen Thompson
Elite, Overtime, 6-6
Although he is a jaw-dropping athlete, I’m just as intrigued by Amen Thompson’s playmaking skills. Put this guy next to jumbo-sized ball handlers like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner on Orlando and you’ve suddenly got my new favorite team in the Eastern Conference.
4
Oklahoma City Thunder: Keyonte George
Baylor, Freshman, 6-4
I absolutely love Baylor freshman guard Keyonte George, who is a high-level defender and productive playmaker — he had 7 assists in the first half of his collegiate debut. He is the type of player who will always find a way to make a positive impact on winning.
5
New Orleans Pelicans (via LAL): Dereck Lively II
Duke, Freshman, 7-2
Would it not be for Wembanyama, Duke’s Dereck Lively (who missed the first game of the season for the Blue Devils due to injury) would pretty clearly be the best big man prospect in this class. With his rim protection and size, he could be a perfect addition to a talented young core in New Orleans.
6
Washington Wizards: Nick Smith
Arkansas, Freshman, 6-4
Nick Smith is a confident, ultra-talented lead guard who would be a home-run draft pick for a team like the Wizards that lacks any young star power. He was held out of the first game of the season due to a knee injury.
7
San Antonio Spurs: Brandon Miller
Alabama, Freshman, 6-8
Listen to the way that teammates talk about Brandon Miller and they will tell you that he is a different, one-of-a-kind prospect. Even though he is only just a freshman, Miller is already considered a leader for this Alabama squad. He ended up with a double-double during his first game in the NCAA.
8
Sacramento Kings: Cam Whitmore
Villanova, Freshman, 6-6
Cam Whitmore was ridiculously dominant for Team USA’s U18 squad this past summer. He will miss the start of the college basketball season due to a thumb injury, but watch his highlights and you’ll see within seconds why he is a projected lottery pick.
9
Indiana Pacers: Jarace Walker
Houston, Freshman, 6-8
Jarace Walker is easily one of the strongest, most physically impressive prospects. His dunks are absolutely ferocious and from the first game of the season, it was clear he is going to play a big role in Houston coach Kelvin Sampson’s elite defense.
10
Orlando Magic (via CHI): Ausar Thompson
Elite, Overtime, 6-6
His twin brother, Amen Thompson, has been getting more praise of late. Ausar, however, is a lottery-level talent with an elite basketball IQ and top-tier athleticism. Especially f his shot starts falling, he’s going to have a long professional career.
11
Charlotte Hornets: Dariq Whitehead
Duke, Freshman, 6-6
I’m very intrigued by Duke’s Dariq Whitehead, but he’s still a “couple of weeks” away from returning to the floor due to a foot injury. That gives me some pause about his early productivity, but I’d be surprised if he fell out of the top 10.
12
New York Knicks: GG Jackson
South Carolina, Freshman, 6-8
GG Jackson decided to forego his senior year of high school, but beforehand, he was considered the top recruit in his class. Jackson is going to be one of the youngest players in college basketball this season, and his upside will be hard to ignore.
13
Portland Trail Blazers: Cason Wallace
Kentucky, Freshman, 6-4
Widely considered the best defensive guard among all prospects in this class, Cason Wallace nearly recorded a triple-double the first time he got on the floor for Kentucky. His potential development on the offensive side of the floor, as he did in his collegiate debut, would make him worth drafting in the lottery.
14
Utah Jazz (via MIN): Tyrese Proctor
Duke, Freshman, 6-4
Australia’s Tyrese Proctor was described as the “best player” for Duke during the offseason. The guard has elite court vision, passing skilling, and on-ball creativity.
15
Brooklyn Nets: Kel'el Ware
Oregon, Freshman, 7-0
As currently constructed, Brooklyn’s roster desperately needs size, and Oregon’s Kel’el Ware is a 7-footer who could provide help in the frontcourt.
16
Los Angeles Clippers: Jalen Hood-Schifino
Indiana, Freshman, 6-5
Jalen Hood-Schifino is a do-it-all floor general whose flashes are as promising as any prospect in the nation. He is a skilled, pro-caliber guard who could be a difference-maker at Indiana.
17
Golden State Warriors: Julian Phillips
Tennessee, Freshman, 6-8
Julian Phillips is a 3-and-D forward with excellent vertical pop and if he is able to stay consistent and efficient in his role, he could be a one-and-done guy for the Vols.
18
Miami Heat: Jett Howard
Michigan, Freshman, 6-7
Jett Howard, who is the son of Michigan head coach and former NBA All-Star big Juwan Howard, has one of the prettiest jump shots in college hoops. He is a microwave scorer who can get a bucket whenever he wants. He was stellar during his first game in Michigan, recording 21 points with 5 rebounds and 2 assists as well as a steal and a block.
19
Utah Jazz (via PHI): Gradey Dick
Kansas, Freshman, 6-6
Earlier this year, I spoke to Gradey Dick after he was named Gatorade Player of the Year. Here is what I wrote about him at the time:
“He has enjoyed one of the greatest shooting seasons in high school basketball history. He thrives in the pick-and-pop when lifting to the perimeter, he knocks down his catch-and-shoot opportunities, and he can create off the dribble. He led all tournament players in total 3-pointers made at the Montverde Academy Invitational in 2021, per Cerebro Sports. He was then the scoring leader at The La Porte Invitational in 2022, averaging 21.7 points per game.”
Based on what we’ve seen from him so far, I’d expect that hot shooting to continue while at Kansas and then over the course of a lengthy NBA career.
20
Los Angeles Lakers (via NOP): Chris Livingston
Kentucky, Freshman, 6-6
Chris Livingston is a physically-gifted prospect who likely projects better as a forward than as a guard, and if his shooting connects in college, there is not much doubt that Livingston will hear his name in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft. He had 9 points (4-5 FG), 4 rebounds, and 1 steal during his first NCAA game.
21
Utah Jazz: Nikola Durisic
Mega Basket (Serbia), International, 6-8
Among the prospects in this class who are currently playing overseas, Serbia’s Nikola Durisic is probably the highest-regarded not named Victor Wembanyama. Earlier this year, he was named MVP of the Euroleague’s Adidas Next Generation Tournament.
22
Atlanta Hawks: Arthur Kaluma
Creighton, Sophomore, 6-7
Last season, I wrote about why Creighton’s Arthur Kaluma was one of the prospects who most improved his draft stock during March Madness. He was able to build on that momentum during the FIBA World Cup qualifier, and he may be the top returning player in college basketball.
23
Indiana Pacers (via CLE): Dillon Mitchell
Texas, Freshman, 6-7
Dillon Mitchell is another above-average athlete who has two-way potential and versatility on both sides of the court.
24
Charlotte Hornets (via DEN): Sidy Cissoko
Ignite, G League, 6-7
Sidy Cissoko is getting valuable developmental minutes in the G League for the Ignite. Cissoko projects as a solid connector at the next level, and he is an especially good passer for someone his size.
25
New York Knicks (via DAL): Baba Miller
Florida St., Freshman, 6-11
Due to recruiting violations, Baba Miller was suspended for the first fourteen games of the season. It is a massive bummer for Miller, who tweeted that he “just wants to play basketball” but will not be able to get on the floor early in his collegiate career. When he does, however, there is enough to like that he could still be a first-round pick.
26
Toronto Raptors: Leonard Miller
Ignite, G League, 6-10
I wrote a long feature about Canada’s Leonard Miller earlier this year, which should help you learn more about his game. While he tested the waters and considered his options in the 2022 NBA Draft, Miller made the wise call to instead play for the G League Ignite.
27
Memphis Grizzlies: Rayan Rupert
New Zealand Breakers (Australia), International, 6-6
Rayan Rupert was playing very well in Australia’s NBL before suffering a broken wrist. He is a disruptive defensive prospect who was shooting well, and so long as he recovers well from his injury, he is still a first-round guy.
28
Phoenix Suns: Terquavion Smith
North Carolina St., Sophomore, 6-4
Here is what I wrote about Terquavian Smith back in March:
“Among those to log at least 60% of possible minutes for their team, per Bart Torvik, he joins Trae Young as the only high-major freshman on record to attempt as many 3-pointers per 100 possessions. In a league that puts a premium on the perimeter, Smith is the type of player who can draw some eyeballs.”
Smith did well during the pre-draft process but opted to return to school. Based on what we saw last year, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t picked in the first round.
29
Indiana Pacers (via BOS): DaRon Holmes II
Dayton, Sophomore, 6-10
Even though he may have flown a bit under the radar last season, I’d expect DaRon Holmes is going to be a much more popular name in 2022-23. He is a well-rounded big man who is going to stick around the NBA for a long time.
30
Houston Rockets (via MIL): Anthony Black
Arkansas, Freshman, 6-7
Anthony Black is one of three players who made the McDonald’s All-American squad and will play for Arkansas this season. Black is not a score-first player, but he is fast and smooth and going to find ways to add value to his team in every other way.
31
SECOND ROUND
31. Indiana Pacers (via HOU): JJ Starling (Notre Dame, Freshman, 6-4)
32. Detroit Pistons: Julian Strawther (Gonzaga, Junior, 6-7)
33. Orlando Magic: Kyle Filipowski (Duke, Freshman, 6-11)
34. Charlotte Hornets (via OKC): Jordan Walsh (Arkansas, Freshman, 6-7)
35. Los Angeles Lakers: Amari Bailey (UCLA, Freshman, 6-5)
36. Denver Nuggets (via WAS): Jaime Jaquez Jr. (UCLA Senior 6-7)
37. San Antonio Spurs: Harrison Ingram (Stanford, Sophomore, 6-8)
38. Sacramento Kings: Kris Murray (Iowa, Junior, 6-8)
39. Sacramento Kings (via IND): Adem Bona (UCLA, Freshman, 6-9)
40. Los Angeles Lakers (via CHI): Marcus Sasser (Houston, Senior, 6-2)
41. Philadelphia 76ers (via CHA): Judah Mintz (Syracuse, Freshman, 6-4)
42. Minnesota Timberwolves (via NYK): Mark Mitchell (Duke, Freshman, 6-8)
43. Boston Celtics (via POR): Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana, Junior, 6-9)
44. Memphis Grizzlies (via MIN): Coleman Hawkins (Illinois, Junior, 6-10)
45. Atlanta Hawks (via BKN): Chance Westry (Auburn, Freshman, 6-6)
46. Los Angeles Clippers: Tyrese Hunter (Texas, Sophomore, 6-0)
47. Cleveland Cavaliers (via GSW): Trevon Brazile (Arkansas, Sophomore, 6-9)
48. Oklahoma City Thunder (via MIA): Maxwell Lewis (Pepperdine, Sophomore, 6-7)
49. Philadelphia 76ers: Forfeited
50. Atlanta Hawks (via NOP): Kevin McCullar (Kansas, Senior, 6-6)
51. Charlotte Hornets (via UTA): Emoni Bates (Eastern Michigan, Sophomore, 6-9)
52. Brooklyn Nets (via ATL): Oscar Tshiebwe (Kentucky, Senior, 6-9)
53. Milwaukee Bucks (via CLE): Alex Fudge (Florida, Sophomore, 6-8)
54. Chicago Bulls (via DEN): Forfeited
55. Boston Celtics (via DAL): Yohan Traore (Auburn, Freshman, 6-10)
56. Toronto Raptors Colby Jones (Xavier, Junior, 6-6)
57. Memphis Grizzlies: Jalen Slawson (Furman, Senior, 6-7)
58. Phoenix Suns: Drew Timme (Gonzaga, Senior, 6-10)
59. Boston Celtics: Ousmane N’diaye (Baskonia – Spain, International, 6-11)
60. Milwaukee Bucks: Jalen Wilson (Kansas, Junior, 6-8)
