If we’ve learned anything from the first two rounds of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, it’s that anything can happen. March Madness earned that nickname for good reason, and this year proves it.
The unpredictability extends into April for the NFL and the upcoming draft. Predicting exactly what will happen some six weeks out is like trying to fill out a perfect bracket; it’s a brilliantly fun exercise in abject futility, even if you get very close to the outcomes.
Yet here were are with my first mock draft since taking the reins as the co-editor here at Draft Wire. This one goes three full rounds with no trades.
An explanation of how I approach mock drafts:
The picks are an attempt at predicting what the team would do in the given situation. They do not necessarily represent the choices I would make. I do one “what I would do” mock draft every year. This is not that edition.
1. Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Panthers didn’t trade up for just anyone. They had a specific target in mind, and it’s easy to see why new head coach Frank Reich would want Stroud enough to make that move.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Texans jumpstart their rebuild under new head coach Demeco Ryans with the Heisman winner. Young is unusually small but that didn’t stop him from thriving in the SEC with his playmaking and leadership.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Wilson brings a power-to-speed style with outstanding length and strength. He’s a natural building block for a Cardinals team in transition. A trade down here with a QB-needy team certainly makes sense.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
When the owner comes out and says the team is taking a quarterback at the top, listen to him. Levis carries some legit risk but the potential reward is also very high
5. Seattle Seahawks: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Seahawks are in the perfect position to take a developmental QB with Richardson’s record-setting athleticism. Geno Smith makes for a great bridge, one too tantalizing for GM John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll to resist taking the shot on Richardson.
6. Detroit Lions: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
Not the Lions’ biggest need, but the concept of pairing Anderson with last year’s rookie EDGE haul of Aidan Hutchinson, James Houston and Josh Paschal would give Detroit a diverse, destructive stable of young pass rushers.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Gonzalez oozes athletic potential and offers a high football IQ. He’s a potential instant impact starter in a pass-happy division for a Raiders team that needs a lot of help at CB.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
It’s hard to know where Carter comes off the board after a disastrous offseason. The Falcons roll the dice on a player almost universally considered the best defensive talent in the entire draft less than two months ago.
9. Chicago Bears: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Robinson might be the best offensive player in the draft, but teams don’t typically value RBs this highly. Bears GM Ryan Poles can risk it with the extra picks acquired from trading down from No. 1.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Even though he never started a game at Iowa, Van Ness has loads of athletic potential and positional versatility to help the Eagles get younger and more dynamic on defense.
11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
The Titans have a lot of holes to fill, and the well-heeled Johnson can be a foundational piece of the offense. Tennessee sure feels like a prime candidate to trade–in either direction. Staying put and bolstering the offensive line makes sense too.
12. Houston Texans: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
After landing the QB with their first pick, the Texans bring in an instant starter at another position of dire need, pass rusher. Murphy is a talented player who can definitely impact the opposing offense from Day 1 in both run and pass defense.
13. New York Jets: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
This is pending the (seemingly inevitable) Aaron Rodgers trade. Making such a trade means catering to your new QB, and getting Rodgers arguably the best all-around pass protection lineman in the draft sure sounds smart, even if his length limitations force Skoronski to play guard.
14. New England Patriots: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
15. Green Bay Packers: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Branch fits best into the slot but offers enough coverage skills and outstanding tackling to roam around, if that’s what the Packers desire. I initially had Michael Mayer here but the quality of the TE class changed the direction to defense.
16. Washington Commanders: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Banks opted to shorten his name to “Tae” at the NFL Scouting Combine, where he was one of the week’s biggest winners. No matter what you call him, he’s got high-end speed and man coverage ability that would suit the Commanders’ defense nicely.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Jones can step right into a starting OT role for the Steelers, but he’s much better as a long-term prospect. There isn’t a tackle in this class with higher-end potential.
18, Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Witherspoon is slightly built and hasn’t worked out due to a hamstring injury but offers the exact style of in-your-face man coverage that suits the Lions’ young defense.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Darnell Wright, OL, Tennessee
One of the workout circuit’s biggest winners, both figuratively and literally. The 335-pound Wright can play any guard or tackle spot right away, a nice asset for a Buccaneers line with multiple positions to address.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
An undersized but lightning-quick interior penetrator from Pittsburgh; where have we heard this before…Kancey doesn’t have the playing strength anywhere close to Aaron Donald, but his ability to instantly win as a pass rusher is undeniable. The Seahawks can use him as an impact package player right away.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Kincaid fits the mold of an oversized wide receiver playing tight end, a role the Chargers can utilize to help make life easier for Justin Herbert. The former prep basketball standout continues to get stronger and develop his blocking.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Addison is the first WR off the board and heads to a Baltimore team that struggled to find effective weapons to build around Lamar Jackson. The quarterback’s unresolved contractual situation leaves everything in flux, but the playmaking Addison helps whomever is running the Ravens offense
23. Minnesota Vikings: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Smith gets a little lost after missing the end of his final Bulldogs season with a torn pec. A team like the Vikings stops the fall for an accomplished all-around stand-up EDGE. Smith has enough athleticism and savvy to work in some off-ball LB looks too.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Johnston is an unusual weapon as a receiver, one Jaguars coach Doug Pederson can make good use of–a big target who is fantastic after the catch.
25. New York Giants: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
The consensus top center, Schmitz proved during Senior Bowl week he can aggressively lock up athletic pass rushers. He’s smart, seasoned and ready to step right into the center of the Giants’ young offensive line.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
The run game is too important to the Cowboys offense to just ay goodbye to Ezekiel Elliott and not replace him with an impact playmaker. That’s Gibbs, who is an excellent receiver out of the backfield as well as a home run hitter outside the tackle box.
27. Buffalo Bills: O'Cyrus Torrence
Torrence is a large man with a big man’s style of play on the interior. He’ll help the Bills run game in a division filled with some strong defensive lines. I would’ve slotted Jahmyr Gibbs here but he just came off the board.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Harrison can slide into either tackle spot as a pass protection specialist, though he has the feet to also play inside if needed. Adding Orlando Brown Jr. was a great move, but the Bengals best not be done upgrading the line in front of Joe Burrow.
29. New Orleans Saints: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Tapping into the Buckeyes WR corps worked great for the Saints in 2022, and that well is far from dry. Smith-Njigba could reunite with Chris Olave to give new QB Derek Carr a dynamic young 1-2 punch at wide receiver.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
After dabbling with dumping Darius Slay, adding a cornerback early seems wildly prudent for GM Howie Roseman. I know, I know–that’s not what the Eagles do. That’s the value of having an extra pick, at least in this projection.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Bresee is an enigmatic interior talent, one dripping with athletic ability but not always focused energy. The Kansas City coaching staff has thrived with prospects like that in the past, and Bresee’s upside makes it a worthy gamble for the defending champs.
2nd round
32. Steelers: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
33. Texans: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
34. Cardinals: Clark Phillips, CB, Utah
35. Colts: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
36. Rams: Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State
37. Seahawks: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
38. Raiders: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
39. Panthers: Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
40. Saints: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
41. Titans: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
42. Browns: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
43. Jets: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
44. Falcons: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati
45. Packers: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
46. Patriots: Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
47. Commanders: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
48. Lions: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
49. Steelers: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
50. Buccaneers: Ji’Ayir Brown, S, Penn State
51. Dolphins: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
52. Seahawks: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
53. Bears: Steve Avila, OL, TCU
54. Chargers: Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida
55. Lions: Adetomiba Adebawore, DT, Northwestern
56. Jaguars: Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse
57. Giants: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
58. Cowboys: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
59. Bills: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
60. Bengals: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
61. Bears: Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn
62. Eagles: Tuli Tuipulotu, DL, USC
63. Chiefs: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
Third round
64. Bears: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
65. Texans: Jordan Battle, S, Alabama
66. Cardinals: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
67. Broncos: Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State
68. Broncos: Jaquelin Roy, DT, LSU
69. Rams: Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin
70. Raiders: Tanner McKee, QB, Stanford
71. Saints: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State
72. Titans: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
73. Texans: Nathaniel Dell, WR, Houston
74. Jets: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
75. Falcons: Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan
76. Patriots: Sydney Brown, S, Illinois
77. Rams: B.J. Ojulari, EDGE, LSU
78. Packers: A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest
79. Colts: Zacch Pickens, DT, South Carolina
80. Steelers: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
81. Lions: Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State
82. Buccaneers: Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA
83. Seahawks: Owen Pappoe, LB, Auburn
84. Dolphins: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
85. Chargers: Kyu Blu Kelly, CB, Stanford
86. Ravens: D.J. Turner, CB, Michigan
87. Vikings: Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pittsburgh
88. Jaguars: J.L. Skinner, S, Boise State
89. Giants: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
90. Cowboys: Davis Allen, TE, Clemson
91. Bills: Luke Wypler, C, Ohio State
92. Bengals: K.J. Henry, EDGE, Clemson
93. Panthers: DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas
94. Eagles: Blake Freeland, OT, BYU
95. Chiefs: Tyler Steen, OL, Alabama
96. Cardinals: Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M
97. Commanders: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami FL
98. Browns: Moro Ojomo, DT, Texas
99. 49ers: Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
100. Raiders: Henry To’o To’o, LB, Alabama
101. 49ers: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
102. 49ers: Tre’vius Tomlinson, CB, TCU
