The term “breakout” has different meanings for different people in the world of fantasy football. Some folks believe it’s simply a player who will outperform his draft position. Others think it’s an established player who emerges into a regular fantasy starter after never having reached that sort of status in the past.
In my opinion, both definitions are true but with a caveat. I don’t see a player as a breakout candidate if he’s already reached his “statistical ceiling” during his career. For example, Justin Herbert or Najee Harris aren’t “breakouts” to me. Is Herbert coming off a down year? Yes. But that doesn’t make him a breakout candidate. The same goes for Harris, who has been considered a top-10 pick in the past.
In my opinion, you can’t break out twice.
Could these players be labeled as bargains in 2023 fantasy drafts? Absolutely. But they’re certainly not considered “breakouts” based on my definition. I also consider some rookies to be breakouts, as these players could outperform or meet their draft position expectations without ever producing in the pros.
- Fantasy Breakouts: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers
Another example of a breakout player is Josh Jacobs. He was very good in the stat sheets his first three seasons, but last year he broke out with career bests across the board. It was likely his “ceiling” season in fantasy leagues.
With that in mind, here are three breakout tight ends to target in drafts who could have career-best seasons in 2023.
Greg Dulcich, Broncos
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Dulcich showed some flashes of potential as a rookie, scoring 11-plus points in each of his first three pro games and five times overall. He also gained a nice rapport with Russell Wilson, and that should carry over to this season. New coach Sean Payton likes to use the tight ends in his offense, too, so Dulcich should see enough targets to become a mid to low-end No. 1 fantasy option.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans
Okonkwo had a mini breakout in the second half of his rookie season, posting 10 or more points in four of his last six games. That includes a six-catch, one-touchdown, 18.5-point effort against the Jaguars in Week 14. With few weapons in the Titans’ pass attack, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Okonkwo rank among the three most targeted players on the team. He’s a solid late-round pick.
Dalton Kincaid, Bills
It was tough for me to find even two “breakout” tight ends, so I added Kincaid. While rookies typically don’t make a great impact at the position, Kincaid is more like a wide receiver in a tight end’s body and will see a lot of chances out of the slot. Sure, it might be a stretch based on our historical data, but I like Kincaid in the late rounds as a No. 2 tight end who could outplay his draft position.
