Excitement is at an all-time high with the Chicago Bears hosting the big, bad Green Bay Packers at home to kick off the season in just under a week.
Along with the 2023 NFL season getting underway, there’s another wildly popular football phenomenon that’s about to begin: Fantasy football. I
Buy Bears Ticketst’s that joyous time of year where people try to figure out who’s participating in their league, eventually agreeing on a time and date to do the annual draft only for it to be pushed right up against the start of the NFL season because people had things to do on the previous date, all culminating in a two-and-a-half-hour draft that everyone takes way too seriously or does not take seriously at all.
It’s glorious.
As objective as a fantasy player attempts to be, there’s always a little part of them that wants to take their favorite guys from their favorite team. The problem is, they pick their favorite player without thinking of the pros and cons, their floor and ceiling and whether they’re getting their guy at a good value.
I will be using the half-PPR format to evaluate each player, since the majority of leagues use it, and use the following fantasy lineup: 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 receivers, 1 tight end, 1 flex (running back/receiver/tight end), 1 kicker and 1 defense/special teams.
Now that the rules are explained, let’s break things down with the 2023 Bears in fantasy football.
QB Justin Fields
Justin Fields is unproven as a passer and he likely won’t be unable to support all three starting wide receivers in fantasy. These major concerns may have you questioning whether Fields will be a good fantasy quarterback to draft. Well, question no more, because I can definitively say that Fields will not be a good fantasy quarterback…he will be a great fantasy quarterback. You should absolutely target Fields as a low-end tier one or high-end tier two quarterback in your drafts.
You see, fantasy football has one, not-so-well-kept secret: a quarterback can both pass and run for fantasy points, making dual-threats quarterbacks an invaluable asset to have on your team. As far dual-threat passers go, Fields ranks among the best of them in fantasy, ranking as a low tier one or high tier two player. While it’s true his passing numbers may be inconsistent for fantasy purposes, he still has an incredibly high floor because of his Houdini-esque running ability. Even if Fields throws for, say, 200 yards with one passing touchdown and one interception in a game, his legs will almost certainly turn a mediocre game into a stellar fantasy performance that will get you 20-plus points.
His floor is high, but his ceiling is even higher. It’s possible that, by season’s end, Fields will finish as the best quarterback in fantasy football, outranking the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. If Fields’s arm becomes as special as his legs, the signal-caller may ascend into a player that will score 25-30 points on any given week.
Consider taking Fields anywhere as early as round two or as late as round four. While acquiring your superstar running backs or wide receivers, keep an eye on what quarterbacks are left. If you see that Fields is quickly becoming the best quarterback left on the board, that may be your only shot at taking him.
WR DJ Moore
Although DJ Moore hasn’t had the same elite production of many other number one receivers, his status as Chicago’s main pass catcher and explosive yards-after-catch ability makes him a great low-end WR2 or high-end WR3.
The former Carolina Panther was a victim of bad quarterback-itis last year, as the play of Baker Mayfield and short-lived Bear P.J. Walker didn’t allow Moore to reach his full potential — both in fantasy and real life. He finished as WR33 last year, meaning his production was more in-line with tier three receivers rather than tier two or one.
His poor production last year shouldn’t scare you away from what he will be this year; the star receiver is in a much better situation. Moore is the number one option in an offense that will look to stretch the field vertically and a play calling philosophy that compliments Moore’s speed and sure hands. Moreover, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has already proven in the preseason that he wants to get the ball to Moore. Screens, deep curls, slot fades. We’ve seen all of these plays executed in an attempt to get Moore the ball. Getsy’s interest in making Moore a focal point in the offense gives him a solid floor through sheer volume.
The final piece of the puzzle will be Moore’s playmaking ability – the facet of the receiver’s game that will get you 20-plus points on some weeks. Moore has game-breaking ability when the ball in his hands, exemplified by his long catch-and-run touchdown in Week 1 of the preseason and his lone big play in Week 3.
DJ Moore + Justin Fields = six.
So ready for the regular season… pic.twitter.com/NgW8ELOa9q
— Bears Nation (@BearsNationCHI) August 12, 2023
Now that the sales pitch for Moore has been made, let’s address some of the concerns. Moore’s fantasy success is inherently tied to Fields’ growth as a passer. If QB1 fails to take the next step, Moore will naturally see a dip in production. It should be mentioned that he’ll be playing in a whole new offense, so you may see more subdued performances to start the season before he starts getting more comfortable. Also, Moore has not consistently delivered tier one type of numbers, meaning the expectations being set for him are mostly based on speculation.
Overall, Moore should be targeted as your second or third wide receiver; save that coveted number one receiver spot for the fantasy superstars. If you’re able to lock in a workhorse as your WR1 and you find yourself considering Moore in rounds three to five, you’re in a good spot. Moore’s upside far outweighs his downside, and he’s well worth the risk should you have stability in your number one spot.
WRs Chase Claypool & Darnell Mooney
Moore is in a class of his own from a fantasy standpoint, as are Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney — just in a much, much lower class.
To put it bluntly, Claypool and Mooney should not be among your first 11 selections. Build out a good starting lineup, bring in some promising backups, and then you can consider the duo. It’s good practice to view the two receivers as a dart throw, or a roll of the dice — players to pick up at the tail end of your draft, just to see if they can be something later in the season.
Remember, I’m not condemning either of their actual abilities to contribute to the Bears — they are both crucial to the offense’s success. When the conversation turns to imaginary points for an imaginary game, however, neither of the receivers will make much of a difference most weeks. They are both secondary options in a run-first offense that has an unproven passing quarterback throwing to them; they are just not in a situation that will produce reliable numbers.
The best-case scenario for the pair is the Bears’ offense exploding into a deadly air attack that features Fields throwing for 300 yards a game, because that would be the only way the offense can support Moore, Claypool and Mooney in fantasy. If your rosters are set and you just want to try to hit the lottery with your last one or two picks in the draft, go for it. Just prepare to drop them to make way for a waiver pick up a few weeks into the season.
RB Khalil Herbert
If Khalil Herbert was guaranteed to be the definitive lead back in the Bears offense, he would easily be a low-end tier one or tier two runningback. With the Bears’ commitment to a shared backfield with Herbert, D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson, however, Herbert’s value falls in line with tier three.
Make no mistake: Herbert’ talent and production on the field is staggering. He’s a powerful and decisive runner who makes up for his lack of speed with his knack for breaking tackles. Even in fantasy, he was an absolute stud at the end of last season when former Bears running back David Montgomery went down with an injury. Herbert averaged 117 yards on 19.5 carries in the short two-game stint where he was the workhorse on the ground, and those metrics demonstrate elite efficiency.
The aforementioned weight that drags down Herbert’s fantasy floor is the Bears’ determination to utilize a run-by-committee. There will be games where Herbert only touts the ball 9-12 times due to this offensive approach, and it’s hard to place him in higher tiers with those kinds of numbers.
Herbert is also limited by, well, his own team – he’s projected to be in what’s called a “negative game script” which is an estimation of how much a player will be utilized when considering the real-life circumstances of the game. For example, Chicago is expected to lose a lot and be down earlier in games, creating a negative game script for Herbert because the Bears will shy away from the run in favor of the pass to try to be competitive.
So, Herbert has the talent and puts up the fantasy stats, but he’s shackled by a rotation at his position and a negative game script. Where should you take him, then? I would recommend targeting Herbert as your third running back if he falls to you — even better if you can snag him as your fourth. As the season goes, you can start him in certain weeks against favorable matchups; he’ll also serve as a great substitute in your starter’s bye weeks or if injuries open up slots in your starting lineup.
There may be a world where the Bears pivot to a more featured back type of running game, which would instantly launch Herbert into a low tier one or high tier two sort of player. As of right now, he’s a backup that can be serviceable in a pinch.
RBs D'Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson
Foreman and Johnson are the reason for Herbert’s limited fantasy potential, so naturally the presence of Herbert would inhibit their fantasy prospects, only to a much greater degree.
Johnson easily is the more interesting of the two, considering his status as a rookie. General manager Ryan Poles selected Johnson with a valuable fourth-round pick in this year’s draft, which means the team must have a role for him in mind. It remains to be seen if that role is meant for this year or the next, but in the fantasy world he’s still an intriguing prospect. I would look to take him as a “see what he can be” sort of player at the end of drafts.
Foreman, on the other hand, has the fantasy community much less excited. He’s already the backup on the team, and many expect him to be a distant third in the running committee soon after the season starts. Foreman has displayed good fantasy production in year’s past, but that was when he dominated the workload with the Panthers. His current role with the Bears just won’t allow him to be a viable fantasy option. If you’re in dire straits at the position later in the year and Foreman’s sitting on the waiver wire, you definitely can pick him up. Just don’t expect much.
TE Cole Kmet
Finally, we arrive in the Tight End Wasteland. Not much here, right? Yes, while the tight end position, with all of their versatility, are important to any self-respecting football team, fantasy football has an estranged relationship with them.
The position is generally very boom-or-bust, meaning there aren’t many tight ends who will consistently have good production on a weekly basis. A typical fantasy tight end only gets a handful of targets every week, and even less receptions. Tight ends are very touchdown dependent, so if your main tight end isn’t a big red-zone threat, you really won’t be getting much. In fact, only two are expected to deliver week in and week out, those being the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce and the Ravens’ Mark Andrews.
There is one caveat in the whole tight end debacle, however: Almost everyone in your league is in the same boat. If your league-mates aren’t paying a premium for Kelce or Andrews, they’ll also fall in the sinkhole of tight ends. This observation is why many fantasy football player’s strategy regarding the position is go for the high-risk guys, like the Falcons’ Kyle Pitts or the Bills’ Dalton Kincaid. Shoot for the stars and, if you miss, you’ll plummet like everyone else.
This strategy definitely applies to Cole Kmet. The tight end does have a bit of momentum going into the season, as he signed a four-year contract extension with Chicago this summer, and many believe he’ll become a bigger part of the passing attack. If he booms, great; if he busts, don’t expect Kmet to score you more than eight points in a week consistently.
K Cairo Santos
This entry and the next don’t need too much analysis. There isn’t much thought that goes into drafting a kicker; in fact, many fantasy football players don’t. Many players just use that slot for another dart-throw at receiver or running back and pick up a kicker right before the season starts.
Going with the assumption that you will be drafting a kicker, try to take an accurate kicker (obviously) or one that’s on a good team. Santos is of the former and potentially could be one of the latter as the season goes on. He made 21 of 23 kicks last year, and he showed no sign of his losing his touch in the preseason.
Santos is a good pick for a kicker in the last two rounds of a draft.
Bears Defense/Special Teams
In years’ past, picking up the Bears defense/special teams in the last round of the draft or on the waivers paid off. The defense single-handedly swung close matchups when the likes of Devin Hester scored on a punt or kick return on a spectacular run-back. Even as recently as five years ago, the 2018 Bears defense scored just as much, if not more, than the offense.
The 2023 defense, however, is a far cry from the fantasy machine it was before, and I would not recommend selecting them.
The main issue is the team will be extremely vulnerable to both the run and pass. The defensive line is the weakest position on the team, which means the unit will get pushed around in the run game. Allowing a certain amount of rush yards, like giving up 100 yards or more, detracts from fantasy output, so the defense falls short.
The real concern will inevitably be the defense’s inability to get to the quarterback. Not being able to rush the passer and get sacks severely limits what they can score in fantasy. It’s made even worse when you consider that quarterbacks will have ample amount of time to sit in the pocket and find receivers for big plays and potentially touchdowns, both of which subtracts from their point total.
The only positive angle regarding Chicago’s defense is the secondary’s potential to create turnovers, but even getting one or two a game won’t make up for the points the unit is bound to lose.
Skip the Bears defense altogether.
