Consider the recent Australian Open women’s singles champs:
2022: Ash Barty (retired)
2021/2019: Naomi Osaka (pregnancy absence)
2020: Sofia Kenin: Ranked No. 143
2018: Caroline Wozniacki (retired)
2017/15: Serena Williams (retired)
2016:Angie Kerber (pregnancy absence)
2014: Li Na (retired)
It’s hard to recall a time when there were only two former champions (Victoria Azarenka—a decade ago; and Kenin with a triple-digit ranking...and tennis being tennis, they play each in round one) in the main draw of a major and neither were on anyone’s short list of contenders. Yet, the women’s draw seems fairly…settled. There’s a clear-cut favorite. There’s another player who’s reached the finals of the previous two majors. A No. 3 who just beat the No. 1. Two heavy-hitting contenders who won titles the first week of 2023. Having expressed that hot-take, a player outside the top 50 is now destined to win. Our prognosis….
1. Iga Swiatek: Who else is old enough to remember when any of a handful of male players could emerge from a major as No.1 but the women’s side had a clear-cut favorite? Swiatek may have lost at the United Cup to Jessica Pegula, and might be nursing a slight shoulder injury and may dislike courts this fast….but big picture: she has won two of the last three majors; knows how to win when she's not 100 percent; and is the player to beat until proven otherwise.
2. Ons Jabeur: A finalist at two majors running, can she go one better here? Fair amount of recent news: joined Naomi Osaka’s “Evolve” agency. Joined executive committee of PTPA. Lost in Adelaide to slugging teenager Linda Noskova. But has, well, evolved, into a reliable big-event player.
3. Jessie Pegula: there's so much to like about the highest-ranked American, male or female, at the tournament. Two years ago, Pegula came to Australia outside the top 50. Now, she’s ranked third and is coming off a straight-set takedown of Swiatek. Big opportunity here. And the faster the court, the better.
4. Caroline Garcia: Has played as well as anyone this side of Swiatek over the last six months. The winner of the WTA Finals arrives for 2023 with a new coach and a top-four ranking (and made news last week for, admirably, speaking with candor about her struggles with bulimia.)
5. Aryna Sabalenka: A—dare we say it?—credible pick to win. Underrated tennis story from 2022: remember how Sabalenka’s serve totally deserted her; and she fought through it? Big credit for that. And she already has a title (Adelaide) in 2023. You wish she had more gears and a “throttle back” instinct. But winning 14 sets playing all-gas-no-brakes tennis? We’re starting to believe. More important, so is she.
6. Maria Sakkari: If you like her now, you’ll like her still more after watching “Break Point.” But before Wimbledon we wrote: “This will come across as harsher than intended but she’s become a bit like non-alcoholic beer. Looks and tastes like the real thing…but lacks the desired effect.” Still, unfortunately, holds. Lots of “good tournaments,” but lots of tough losses and only one career title.
7. Coco Gauff: Tempting to pick her as your 2023 Australian Open winner. She’s been to a major final. She won a tune-up in Auckland in challenging conditions. She took a proper off-season. Her speed and power can compensate for her temperamental forehand. And she’s still only 18. She's in Swiatek’s quarter but otherwise a top contender.
8. Daria Kasatkina: After Swiatek, Kasatkina might have more gears and options than any other player. But it’s hard to win majors with a punchless serve and a general preference for brains-over-brawn tennis. A crafty, versatile, fun-to-watch player who can confound an opponent. But not seven.
9. Veronika Kudermetova: All credit to her for earning the top 10 seeding. Mid-career player (25) who was hovering in that 25-45 ranking range for years, and then made a jump, not with one outlier event but by winning lots of matches. All-time major record is barely .500 (16-14) but that looks to improve.
10. Madison Keys: Outside the top 25 last summer, she’s back in business, winning matches—including going 5-0 in the United Cup—and projecting something close to joy on the court. Still comes loaded with power. Still possesses a fearsome serve. Still only 27.
11. Paula Badosa: After watching her in the Netflix series, it’s so easy to admire her persistence. It’s also hard to forget how much pressure she places on herself.
12.Belinda Bencic: The reigning Olympic champ is 25 now. Played deep into majors but yet to reach a final. Now working with Dimitry Tursunov.
13. Danielle Collins: A finalist last year, her track record in Australia speaks for itself. Can play in heat. Can play on a slick court. Can—and in fact relishes—play when matches tighten.
14. Beatriz Maia Haddad: Brazilian has been so impressive over the last year. And did so without advancing beyond the second round of a major. (Trivia: the last player to beat Naomi Osaka.) Now has a chance to make a dent at a major.
15. Petra Kvitova: Four years ago, she nearly won the event. Now 33, she’s in the “dangerous” category, capable of bringing that power and lefty excellence to bear on a fast court; also capable of losing in round one, as she did last year.
16. Anett Kontveit: At the previous major she was ranked No. 2, which was unduly high. Here she’s No. 16, which scans unduly low. Starts year 0-2, with losses in Adelaide to Zheng and Badosa.
Seeds 17-32
17. Jelena Ostapenko: Fans might chuckle at her hairstyles. Fans may marvel at her unfiltered remarks. But she doesn’t care. An attitude that serves her well on the court.
19. Ekaterina Alexandraova: Perhaps the best player with whom you are not familiar.
20. Barbora Krejcikova: A lot has happened since, but anyone who’s won a major within the last 18 or so months gets mentioned.
22. Elena Rybakina: the reigning Wimbledon champ, strikingly seldom as that is mentioned (and not reflected in her ranking.)
24. Victoria Azarenka: A two-time champ merits mention, though we have hit the ten-year anniversary.
29. Qinwan Zhang: Breakout player of 2022.
30. Karolina Pliskova: Former Week Two player, not in autumn of career.
31. Kaia Kanepi: If only to acknowledge a player who is nearly 40 and still fearsome at majors.
Dark Horses
Bianca Andreescu: 2019, sadly, feels like a long time ago. But still—under the right conditions—so much to like here. Speaking of Canada…
Leylah Fernandez: A fierce competitor, 2021 U.S. Open finalist is healthy—and credit for playing lots of doubles, too.
Ajla Tomjanovic: Another Netflix star. At the last major, she managed the occasion and beat Serena Williams to reach the second week.
Taylor Townsend: Back from maternity leave, looking like she didn’t miss a beat.
Marta Kostyuk: A fine young player and she’ll benefit from Ukraine support.
Linda Noskova: Provided she qualifies.
Garbine Mugurza: Comes in ranked 58 which is…wow. She came within a few games of winning this event in 2020, and, of course, has won two other majors. A player no seed wants to see early. Or, perhaps, ever.
Sonia Kenin: The champ three year ago, is now outside the top 100 and playing on a protected ranking—but coming off an encouraging start to 2023.
Donna Vekic: Jeff Saturday was unavailable, but the Croat veteran made a huge, outside-the-box coaching hire in Pam Shriver.
First round matches to watch
Swiatek v. Niemeier: Niemeier is good. Maybe not beat-the-No.1-off-the-bat-good. But really good.
Marie Bouzkova v. Andreescu: Rough first outing for both.
Badosa v. Catie McNally: Big test/opportunity for Ohioan.
Ostapenko v. Dayana Yastremska: No short of self-regard in this match (which is no way a negative).
Marta Kostyuk v. Amanda Anisimova: The tennis balls are going to pay.
Alize Cornet v. Fernandez: Cornet is still at it.
Upset special
Muguruza d. Mertens (26). Not an upset, you say? Fair enough. What about Zidansek over Jabeur, if Jabeur is nursing a knee injury?
Doubles winners
Krejcikova and Siniakova
Semis
Pegula d. Swiatek
Sabalenka d. surprise (Alexandrova?)
Finals
Sabalenka d. Pegula
