Ladies and gentlemen. Boys and girls.
Here. We. Go.
The 2022 WNBA Playoffs have arrived and after an entertaining regular season saw top teams jostle in the standings for months, while the lower seeds weren’t determined until the final day of games.
Now that the field is set (in its new-and-improved playoff format) the canvas is blank, the players will take the court and determine what happens next. And it’s on us to guess how it’ll all unfold.
No random guesses allowed, though. Instead, here are some brief but detailed previews of every first-round series that’ll help you out before you bet.
All odds via Tipico Sportsbook
(8) Phoenix Mercury vs. (1) Las Vegas Aces
Teams
Las Vegas Aces (+175 to win the title)
Under first-year head coach Becky Hammon, the Las Vegas Aces had an impressive season. Their 26-10 record and No. 1 finish in the standings is a by-product of three segments of the season. Games 1 through 15, the Aces rolled to a 13-2 record and looked like the clear best team in the league. They’d go 5-6 over the next 11, falling on supremely dire times. But, an 8-2 close to the year saw them find their footing ahead of the postseason.
With two likely MVP candidates (A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum) and a Coach of the Year contender (Becky Hammon), the Aces have an incredibly high ceiling to reach during these playoffs.
Phoenix Mercury (+9000)
Another first-year head coach, Vanessa Nygaard, has had a bumpier road in Year 1 than her opposition. The Mercury were already behind the 8-ball with Brittney Griner’s wrongful detainment in Russia well before the season began. But questionable team chemistry, injuries, and contract divorces kept this team from ever hitting its stride.
Still, Phoenix did enough down the stretch to land a playoff spot, and honestly, the players and coach Nygaard deserve some praise for accomplishing that in such a crazy season. They’ll have their work cut out for them against the Aces.
Matchup
Remember the fun, five-game semifinals series last season between the two? Don’t expect this playoff matchup to look anything like it. Two superstar bigs that went toe-to-two, Brittney Griner and Liz Cambage, won’t be playing basketball this postseason, Skylar Diggins-Smith (personal reasons) and Diana Taurasi (injury) are inactive, and both teams have different head coaches.
As a result, there’s no reason why the Aces should find themselves in a position to lose this series. And the season series between the two, which Vegas swept 3-0 (by an average of 16.7 ppg), should be an indication of what’s to come. Phoenix is going to fight, but ultimately, the Aces’ top-end talent should overwhelm the Mercury’s depleted roster eventually.
The Pick: Aces 2-0 (-310)
(7) New York Liberty vs. (2) Chicago Sky
Teams
Chicago Sky (+220)
There isn’t much to dislike about the Sky. They’re probably the deepest team in the league, have multiple former Finals MVPs who are all still near the top of their games and have the mental makeup of a champion defending its title.
Chicago was consistent and very good all season long — at one point, looking like an unstoppable force. But they slipped ever-so-slightly over the final couple weeks of the regular season and now find themselves as a No. 2 seed.
New York Liberty (+6000)
If the Liberty could play this postseason in the month of June, they might very well be WNBA championship contenders. They won seven of 11 games over that period, but just nine of 25 in all other games. New York enters as one of the more disappointing teams, as far as preseason expectations went, and will have an uphill climb.
But let’s be fair. Marine Johannas missed the first part of the season as she finished her season in France, and Betnijah Laney missed much of the season with a knee injury. But with both of them currently in the mix, the Liberty should perform much better than a 16-20 record, seventh-seeded team.
Matchup
Talent is everywhere in this matchup. On one side, you’ve got Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney, Natasha Howard and Marine Johannes. On the other, Candace Parker, Emma Meesseman, Kahleah Copper, Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley and the list goes on.
And with these players crossing paths four times during the regular season (Sky won three of the matchups) and two of the games being decided by one possession, on paper, this should be an entertaining matchup.
And it will be. However, Chicago has too much veteran experience and proven championship DNA. When push comes to shove, I trust that the Sky will handle business at home and not let the deciding game land in the Big Apple.
The Pick: Sky 2-0 (-170)
(6) Dallas Wings vs. (3) Connecticut Sun
Teams
Connecticut Sun (+400):
For the third time in the last four seasons, the Sun finished the regular season with a top-3 record in the W. And even though they were quite good from start to finish, their performance this season feels more under the radar than ever before.
Could this be a case of “been there, done that” where media have glossed over Connecticut’s continued regular season success? Perhaps it’s a result of the Sun not having a true MVP candidate as they did a season ago with Jonquel Jones? Or is it due to their style of play not being as flashy as the rest of the league? Whatever the reason, don’t let it blind you from the fact that Curt Miller’s squad is still really freakin’ good.
Dallas Wings (+4000)
The Wings had about as Wings of a season as one would expect. They were great at times, not-so-great at others and were largely the same team from a season ago. That is until they unleashed 6’7″ center Teaira McCowan over the second half of the season. Her dominance in the middle was pivotal in distinguishing this season’s Dallas squad from a more one-dimensional team of years past. Now, they have a more playoff-ready style.
Matchup
In case you all need a reminder, the Wings beat the Sun two out of three times this regular season. With Teaira McCowan and Isabelle Harrison sharing frontcourt minutes, Dallas has the rare size to match up with Jonquel Jones, Brionna Jones and Alyssa Thomas. And if Marina Mabrey, Arike Ogunbowale and Allisha Gray get hot — look out.
But without Ogunbowale (19.7 ppg), who will miss the series with an injury, I don’t think the Wings figure out how to muster up enough points against the league’s second-ranked defense. Connecticut pulls this one out in a roughly fought three-game series.
The Pick: Sun 2-1 (+230)
(5) Washington Mystics vs. (4) Seattle Storm
Teams
Seattle Storm (+400)
It was business as usual for the Storm this season. Although, usual business doesn’t frequently land them outside of the top 3. So, what gives?
There was that weird start to the season in which Seattle dealt with COVID-19 cases and the league’s health and safety protocols, leading to some unnecessary early losses. Then the Tina Charles acquisition forced some lineup adjusting and rotation reconfiguring. While the adjustment period never caused any drastic fluctuations in wins and losses, the Storm were still figuring things out. Those things are somewhat smooth now, and a bet on Charles’ talent, along with the team’s already championship-stamped core, is what Seattle is rolling into the postseason with.
Washington Mystics (+900)
There are sleepers and then there are SLEEPERS. The Washington Mystics are the latter. They finished in fifth place on the season, but they’re honestly a pretty scary team. The Mystics might have the league’s best coach, surely have the league’s scariest defense, and contain plenty of important players from their 2019 title.
Washington’s 2022 record is more a reflection of the team taking the load management approach to get through the season — potentially costing the team some wins along the way. But at their best, this team is dangerous.
Matchup
At the end of the day, it’s all about matchups. Seattle took two of three games from Washington this season, but in all three games, the Mystics failed to reach 80 points. No matter how good their defense is, it’ll be difficult to keep an offense of Breanna Stewart, Tina Charles, Jewell Loyd and Sue Bird limited for long periods.
I believe in the numbers, and the numbers tell me Washington’s offense won’t be enough to keep up with Seattle.
The Pick: Storm 2-1 (+220)
