We often said the women’s draws of Majors resembled America: a place where everyone has a chance, so long as they are willing to work hard and come armed with a dream. Now? It’s now the men’s draw as well that puts the “open” in U.S. Open. Already, over the last 20 years, this event has given us more champions than any other Major. Now? Daniil Medvedev, the defending champ has won one title since. The No. 2 player (Alexander Zverev) isn’t in the draw. Neither is Novak Djokovic. Nor Roger Federer. And Rafa Nadal has yet to lose at a Major in 2022—but has played just once since Wimbledon... and that match resulted in a loss. Dominic Thiem, who won the Open two years ago, is 7-7 on the year.
Yet, on Sunday September 11, there will be a men’s final. And, one can safely assume, someone will win this event. Handicapping the field….
Men’s Draw
1. Daniil Medvedev: The defending champion AND the No.1 seed? To the casual fan he must look like a lock. Not so fast. The Russian has struggled this year—he’s won only one (small) title in 2022. He’s had injuries. And he has the misfortune of being Russian, which caused him to miss Wimbledon. He’s a contender. Perhaps even the favorite. But it’s hard to envision him putting together a successful defense.
2. Rafael Nadal: Comes into New York not only undefeated in majors this year, but on a seven-match US Open win streak. He also comes to New York unsure of his physical fitness—he’s still not 100 percent back from the abdominal injury that wrecked his Wimbledon. At anything close to full health, he’s a serious contender to win a third Major in 2022 and extend his GOAT lead over absentee-by-choice Novak Djokovic. But Nadal looked tentative in Cincinnati (in a loss to Borna Coric which aged better as the days passed) + the usual concerns about his health as the season progresses = something less than a title.
3. Carlos Alcaraz: The Spanish teenager announced himself last year at the U.S. Open, beating Tsitsipas en route to reaching the quarterfinals. He aas cooled off in 2022 after a blazing first five months and comes in off a tight quarterfinal loss (to Cam Norrie) in Cincy. Still, he won the Miami Open, which tends to have good predictive value for this tournament. And he’s yet another player that will benefit from the uncommonly open field. Why not now?
4. Stefanos Tsitsipas: For a generally lovely and accessible and off-beat guy, his tennis comes laced in drama. The Wimbledon defeat to Kyrgios, the inexplicable losses, the coaching concerns….and fluid tennis yielding dazzling wins, including a run to the Cincy final that included a defeat of Medvedev in the semis. Last year in New York, he defeated Andy Murray (with drama and controversy) and then lost in five sets to Alcaraz (with drama). Seeking his first outdoor hardcourt title.
5. Casper Ruud: A run to the French Open final, followed by an early round loss at Wimbledon, followed by a title, followed by a perplexing straight-set loss to teenaged Ben Shelton in Cincy….all part of the learning curve for an ascending and professional player.
[Pause to note that No.6 Novak Djokovic is not in the draw by his own choice. He is a seeker and is being persecuted! He is an anti-science narcissist! Wherever you land, can we all agree that it is remarkable that a 35-year-old on the cusp of history is missing a major volitionally?]
6. Felix Auger Aliassime: Worth noting that he just turned 22, which gives us a chance to bump this lovely video. But the days of good losses and moral victories are waning. The salon is getting a smidge restless for a deeper run and less contentment simply putting up a good fight.
7. Cam Norrie: Fresh off a Wimbledon semi run in the previous Major and Cincy semi in the previous event, the British lefty seems to become harder to beat with each passing tournament. He just turned 27 but is still growing into an expanding game. His defeat of Alcaraz in Cincy ranks among the best matches of 2022.
8. Hubert Hurkacz: He trains in the heat and humidity of Florida, so conditions won’t trouble him. (Not always the case with northern Europeans.) He was the Miami winner in 2021 and the Montreal finalist in 2022. Inasmuch as North American hardcourt success is predictive, HH is a player to watch.
9. Andrey Rublev: It’s been an uneven year for the Russian, who has proven his top ten bona fides, but has yet to prove he has the stuff to win the biggest prizes. He will be relieved to be playing a Major—and will likely be asked about his feelings towards vile Putin—and has had success in New York. But he’s too unreliable to consider a contender.
10. Taylor Fritz: First, all praise to him for this (and credit Chris Clarey for the question).
As the highest ranked American male, he will draw inspiration both from a partisan crowd and his March title in Indian Wells. At Wimbledon, he reached the second week of a Major for the first time (losing a winnable five-setter against Nadal); a deep run at his home Major would be a logical next step in his evolution. The pro’s pro has taken a lot of tough losses, but those tend to alchemize into wins sooner or later.
11. Jannik Sinner: Only 21 and already an established force. Not unlike FAA, he’s a likable ascending talent, who now needs to take the next step and get beyond good losses —e.g. taking Djokovic to five sets at Wimbledon—and show he has the mental and physical durability to grind out 21 sets.
12. Pablo Carreno Busta: The reliable Spaniard, now 31, is not just a winner on North American hardcourts —in Montreal, the first TMS1000 title of his career—but a two-time U.S. Open semifinalist.
13. Matteo Berrettini: The former US Open semi-finalist has had a tough year, pocked by injuries and Covid positivity. But he’s generally looked strong when he has played. And in his first major since Australia, he could be a contender, especially if his fitness holds up.
14. Diego Schwartzman: Love the wheels. Worry about the horsepower of the engine. He’s such an easy player to like, but he is without a title in 2022, and it is unlikely the first one will come in a Major.
15. Marin Cilic: The former US Open Champ—yes, it was eight years ago—quietly had something of a nice comeback year. He hasn’t won a title, and is unlikely to do so in New York. But he’s the proverbial opponent nobody wants to face.
16. Roberto Bautista Agut: A proper professional, now 34, who will not rank among the contenders but will be a foe none of the contenders want to face.
Seeds 17-32
Denis Shapovalov: He’s had a disappointing season in what should be the prime of his career, but showed signs of resurgence in Cincy. He’s sometimes he is undone by his temper and gripes. Sometimes he’s his own worst on-court enemy.
Dan Evans: Had some Brit tennis thunder stolen by Norrie—and needs more significant socks— but there’s little not to like. He’s got deceptive power for a slight frame; he has streetfighter sensibilities; he has a one-handed backhand. He made a run to the Montreal semis that puts him inside the top 20.
Botic van de Zandschulp: Quietly becoming one of the sport’s toughest outs. Last year he took a set off the winner, Medvedev.
Nick Kyrgios: The seeded wild card. Tennis’s answer to the bombastic rock star has been playing as well as anyone these past 75 days or so. And the player who beat him in the last Major isn’t in the draw. We will learn about Kyrgios this event.
Frances Tiafoe: Still needs to work on closing out matches, but always fun to watch and always feeds off the crowd’s energy.
Borna Coric: And you thought Adam Neumann was making a comeback. Former top-15 player was sub-.100 last week. Comes in on the heels of winning Cincy, the biggest title on his of his career, and is a seed.
Tommy Paul: Maturing into an awfully solid player. He’s an athletic, versatile shotmaker who has quietly won 30 matches this year. Still has some levels to ascend before he’s a Major contender. But at age 25, all vectors are headed in the right direction.
Max Cressy: All hail the serve and volley, and don’t look now, but he’s gone from an easy-to-root-for sideshow to a credible and creditable seed.
Dark Horse Pasture
Sebastian Korda: The talent is undeniable and now he’s due for good luck.
Miomir Kecmanovic: A solid growth stock. And he’s still only 22 (at least til Thursday).
Jenson Brooksby: Credit him for the seeding, ranked as he was outside the top 300 at the start of 2021. A tricky, sui generis player who took a set off Djokovic here last year.
John Isner: Was in danger of leaving the top 50 before last week. But as his play in Cincy confirmed, he is still dangerous at age 37.
Andy Murray: All former champs merit mention. (Murray is due for a strong showing in a best-of-five event.)
Stan Wawrinka: Again, all former champs merit mention.
Dominic Thiem: All former champs merit mention. Technically riding a seven-match win streak in New York. Here’s a guy who you could use a few wins, a little luck and a lot of fan support.
Alexander Bublik: A sort of discount-rack Kyrgios: all the talent in the world, sometimes he uses it to dazzling effect. Other times not so much.
Brandon Nakashima: Developing into such a solid pro, and he just turned 21. What’s the ceiling?
Jack Draper: This British lefty, only 20, is a future star.
First round matches to watch
Medvedev – Stefan Kozlov: Biggest match of Kozlov’s career.
Kyrgios – Kokkinakis: Stinks for both of them.
Carreno Busta – Thiem: Rough for assignation for the 2020 champ.
Ruud -Edmund: Nice to see Edmund back out here, first Major in two years.
First round upset
J.J. Wolf d. Bautista Agut
Doubles winners
Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury, the defending champs, come in having won in Cincy.
Semis
Tsitsipas d. Medvedev
Alcaraz d. Nadal
Finals
Alcaraz d. Tsitsipas
Women’s Draw
For years, “the field is wide open,” was a copy-and-paste in women’s tennis. But at the 2021 U.S. Open, that article of faith was taken to new levels when Emma Raducanu—ranked outside the top 100—who had to qualify just to make the main draw; who was playing her first hardcourt tour-level event—took the title. A year later, how many players must be galvanized? “If she can do it, why not me?”
One surefire prediction from the 2022 U.S. Open: the first week will be dominated by Serena Williams, as well it should be. Other than that…well, if Emma Raducanu can win the title, who not anyone else? Herewith seed reports, undertaking the fool’s errand of trying to predict this event:
1. Iga Swiatek: She isn’t the player she was in the first half of the season following her battlefield promotion to No.1. She’s been playing .500-ball since her streak was snapped at Wimbledon. And, Lord knows, she doesn’t like the “horrible” balls used for the women at the Open. (A valid complaint, she is not the first to offer.) Still, one would have to consider her a favorite if not the favorite.
2. Anett Kontaveit: As Kontaveit herself would admirably admit, the lofty seeding is misleading, as she has struggled to recover from Covid and won only two of her five matches at Majors this year. A fine, solid player who should be commended for her ranking. But probably not among the ten most likely players to win the title.
3. Maria Sakkari: Before Wimbledon we wrote: “This will come across as harsher than intended but she’s become a bit like non-alcoholic beer. Looks and tastes like the real thing…but lacks the desired effect.” Lots of “good tournaments” but lots of tough losses and only one career title. She then lost to Tatiana Maria, ranked outside the top 100. Such an easy-to-like player. So much accumulated scar tissue.
4. Paula Badosa: All credit to the New York-born Spaniard for elevating her game (and profile) this dramatically, this (relatively) late in her career. She is 24 and this is only her 12th Major? After a spring slump, she has shown some signs of life lately, including a defeat of Coco Gauff at Stanford. And she sure can’t complain about her draw.
5. Ons Jabeur: The evolution continues. Came within a set of winning her first Major at Wimbledon. A bit of a letdown since then. But a player to watch—she always is—and a draw for a strong North African contingent in the stands who will will her forward.
6. Aryna Sabalenka: A Wimbledon casualty on account of her nationality. Which not only took her out of action but seemed to interrupt her season. On raw firepower alone, she can beat anyone. But predicated as she is on raw firepower alone, it’s not realistic that she strings together seven matches without a day of misfiring.
7. Simona Halep: A lot of points in her favor. Toronto title; a consummate pro; unbothered by hot conditions; rejuvenated, it seems, by a new coach (perhaps you’ve heard). Cincy withdrawal seemed more out of caution than concern. But there are some points of concern: a tendency to get down on herself; a serve that can break down; ambivalence about New York; a modest record at the U.S. Open—including an4-5 record in her last nine matches.
8. Jessica Pegula: The highest-ranked American has become so steady and such a model for how to elevate a career midway through. Yet to win a title in 2022, and yet still a contender at every Major she enters.
9. Garbine Mugurza: Your guess is as good as hers. An absolutely mystifying player, who is sub-.500 for the year. And yet she is a former No.1 with a hardcourt track record, two Majors on her C.V., and, when everything is right, is capable of absolutely top-shelf tennis.
10. Daria Kasatkina: After Wimbledon absence, she had made news…for this video. And for the Stanford title. Another exponent of recent WTA maxim: variety is slice of tennis life. Like Swiatek and Barty and Jabeur and Halep ….her assortment of gears and options serves her well.
11. Emma Raducanu: Defending champ is unlikely to defend, sub. 500 as she since that magical tour. But after beating Serena and Vika Azarenka in succession in Cincy—dropping just six games in four sets—and playing a tough match against Pegula, the mind reels. When/if she loses, her ranking with plummet. Which might be a disguised blessing. When expectations are reset to “reasonable” setting, she’s doing just fine.
12. Coco Gauff: The ankle she rolled in Cincinnati is a concern. Assuming recovery from that, she is our pick to win. Much like Alcaraz, the major title is a “when” not an “if.” And between the crowd support, the hardcourt familiarity and the mature-beyond-her-years disposition, everything could line up nicely.
13. Belinda Bencic: The 2021 Olympic gold medalist had settled into her role as a dangerous player on the right day, capable of beating anyone….and not a threat to win Majors.
14. Leylah Frnandez: A fierce competitor, and a finalist last year—and has won more matches in 2022 than the woman who beat her—but how is her recovery from the foot injury that took her out Wimbledon?
15. Beatriz Maia Haddad: The Brazilian—who is 26; this is no rookie breakthrough— has had a strikingly successful season, including 41 (!) wins and a defeat of Swiatek in Cincy. But she’s yet to make a significant run at a major. A player to watch for sure.
16. Jelena Ostapenko: We’re all just here for the handshakes. She’s never been to the third round of the Open, but she competes well, she is a former Major winner and it’s hard not to admire her indifference to social norms.
Seeds 17-32
17. Caroline Garcia: Not unlike Coric on the men’s side, she gets the Adam Neumann Comeback Award. Even before the Cincinnati title—for which she had to qualify—she’d had a strong summer. A top five player five years ago, she looks the part again. Unfortunately for her, she’s in a brutal quarter.
18. Veronika Kudermetova: The best player you have perhaps never seen play?
20. Madison Keys: Back in the top 20. Still among the best ballstrikers in the sport. The former finalist can salvage an underwhelming season with a deep run here.
21. Petra Kvitova: The two-time Major champ never liked the Open, but she comes in playing awfully well in Cincy.
24. Amanda Anisimova: She’s back and in a much better place than she was a year ago. But for an ankle injury she suffered in Cincy, she’d be on the short list of contenders.
25. Elena Rybakina: The most recent player to win a major she arrives as a newly minted champ, even if it’s not reflected in the rankings. She’s come back to earth since her triumph at Wimbledon but is still dangerous, especially if she remembers to pack her serve.
26. Vika Azarenka: The two-time Major winner is justifiably distracted by matters weightier than tennis. It’s been a rough summer.
30. Jil Teichman: A fun, athletic lefty. Struggles with consistent—in Cincy she had match points on Petra Kvitova and then retreated inexplicably—but a potential upset-trix.
31. Shelby Rogers: Pride of the Low Country gets up for the Majors. Last year, she took out the top seed, Ash Barty.
Dark Horse Pasture
Naomi Osaka: Has won the U.S. Open twice since 2018. Undoubtedly, a contender. But it’s been a rough 2022.
Alize Cornet: We can already crown one winner this tournament. Cornet hasn’t missed a Major since—get this—2006. 63 straight starts, a new ironwoman record.
Alja Tomjanovich: A fine summer, a fine Cincinnati leading in, and is improving at closing out matches
Taylor Townsend: Back from maternity leave, looking like she didn’t miss a beat.
Bianca Andreescu: The 2019 champ is slowly building back to that level.
Sloane Stephens: Former champion goes up and down like the Empire State Building escalator. But she’s come in in fine form, nearly beating the world’s No.1 player in Cincy.
Marta Kostyuk: A fine young player and she’ll benefit from Ukraine support.
First round matches to watch
Serena Williams v. Danka Kovinic: enough said.
Cornet v. Raducanu: Could the defending champ go out in round one?
Bencic – Petkovic
Upset special
Cornet d. Raducanu
Doubles winners
Krejcikova and Siniakova
Semis
Gauff d. Kasatkina
Sabalenka d. Pegula
Finals
Gauff d. Sabalenka
