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Last year, in a final moment of mock-draft panic, I called editor Mitch Goldich just before midnight and asked that Trey Lance and Mac Jones be swapped in my post. I originally had Lance going third to the 49ers because, the reasoning went, Lance would add a unique dynamic to Kyle Shanahan’s offense—a kind of Robert Griffin III–plus-plus—that would lend itself to concepts that would force defenses to fight against themselves to solve the scheme. I decided to move up Jones because, as I wrote at the time, the coach had an affinity for fast processors whose accuracy developed before their body strength. Jones was certainly that player.
After feeling the stinging disappointment when Shanahan opted for Lance, my mock-drafting goals began to shift. I would like to lean not toward what teams will do but what they should do. Call it a moving scoring system, but it’s nice to be proven right after the fact if a player you liked, who gets passed over by a team, ends up succeeding elsewhere.
While teams will never admit it, they make decisions for all kinds of different reasons. They’re afraid to be wrong. They have to listen to their owner. They are lorded over by some dark, analytical machine that secretly directs their decision-making process and only reveals its choice of Harvey Mudd College linebacker Mack Stillman six days before the draft, totally alienating their scouts and coaching staff.
So, why not talk about why we love the players we love, why we think teams need what they need and who might fit best in that slot while acknowledging that none of these factors may eventually represent the tipping point in an actual decision-making process? That sounds like fun, doesn’t it? (Ed. note: Sounds good to me, just please don’t change your philosophy again at midnight. Thanks. –Mitch)
Let’s dive in.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports (Evan Neal); Justin Ford/USA TODAY Sports (Matt Corral); Malik Willis (Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports)
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Neal blows me away on tape. Our Albert Breer recently noted Aiden Hutchinson is the likely top pick due in part to a wariness in perception from GM Trent Baalke. After the Urban Meyer storm left town, there is certainly pressure on both owner Shad Khan and Baalke to do normal football things. Taking the player who has become somewhat of a consensus No. 1 would classify. It would be the opposite of, say, kicking one of your players.
That said, I think Neal would benefit the Jaguars in the longer run. Doug Pederson’s quarterbacks earn a longer leash each year in his system. By the end of the Carson Wentz era in Philadelphia, there was so much long-drop hero ball. That kind of offense requires a tackle who can sink deep into the pocket, maintain a balanced foundation against talented edge players and fend off attackers for longer periods of time. Neal can do that better than anyone else in the draft.
I don’t particularly care that the Jaguars have a left tackle on the franchise tag. Move him around. I’ve been told Cam Robinson can play guard. Move Neal around for a year and cross-train him. Be a team that sets your offensive line up for success. Baalke himself told me at the combine this year that the edge class provides value into the third round. Pick up your secondary pass rusher there. Take care of Trevor Lawrence here.
Also, to the point of Breer’s sources on Baalke, what would be bad about the perception of protecting Lawrence? I think a large segment of the Jaguars’ fan base would breathe a sigh of relief knowing their generational prospect is well taken care of.
2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan
Pair the guy with the Middle Ages ground warfare face paint and Dan Campbell together and you really have something, no? Hutchinson’s film was a blast to scroll through, though the Georgia game gave me some momentary pause. Is it fair to criticize a potential No. 1 pick for playing in a bowl game? Probably not. Is it fair to criticize Hutchinson when, defensively, he is going to be keyed on every down? Probably not. That said, there were moments when he was blocked out of running plays by non-offensive linemen. He had his best rushes when switched to the nondominant tackle. This would have been my internal argument for Neal vs. Hutchinson, anyway.
That said, Hutchinson was a Tarzan-like character for most of his Michigan career. He is athletic, furiously competitive and fluid in the trenches. The Lions desperately need this kind of homegrown superstar, raised in Dearborn, to come and provide the franchise with a legitimate building block of the future.
3. Houston Texans: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State
I do enjoy the theory that the Texans would go with a cornerback here in order to help Lovie Smith, when the Texans so poorly mistreated their last coach and are so clearly scheming toward some future time we can’t yet wrap our heads around. If Houston pivots to something that helps bolster Smith’s favored Tampa 2 defense, consider me shocked and blown away. Ekwonu would provide some stability for the Texans and a run-blocking presence. Eventually, he’d also provide a suitable long-term replacement for Laremy Tunsil.
4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon
Robert Saleh badly wanted another edge player to pair with Carl Lawson in the first round of last year’s draft, but the Jets found a perfect system player in Alijah Vera-Tucker for whom they needed to move up. The return of Lawson gives the Jets some juice at the edge position, and the arrival of an athlete like Thibodeaux would provide the bookends Saleh needs to run a more representative version of his defense. The Jets prioritize numbers in coverage and not necessarily a reliance on a star player, like an Ahmad Gardner, here. Thibodeaux’s personality has been mangled into a sloppy predraft narrative by the NFL industrial complex looking for another character in their reality show. He’ll be fine alongside a considerate mind like Saleh. Also, having a little bit of an edge will serve him well in Florham Park.
5. New York Giants: Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
New Giants defensive coordinator Don Martindale could very well change his stripes in East Rutherford and blitz less, though even in a more reserved 2022 the Ravens were sending extra rushers on almost a third of their defensive snaps. Gardner would take James Bradberry’s spot and pair with Adoree’ Jackson for a cornerback tandem that is good enough to stay afloat in the NFC East right away. The Giants certainly have some more work to do, but I was always impressed by what Brian Daboll did with Josh Allen while the Bills’ offensive line was a work in progress. Maybe they’ll press a top need here and hope for the best two picks later. Or maybe (see below) …
6. Carolina Panthers: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
I really can’t imagine, as smart and as successful a person as owner David Tepper is, that he’d allow his franchise to take a blind and consequential swing at the QB position here at No. 6. Maybe the Panthers are still in on Baker Mayfield. Maybe there is something else in the works. That said, the current structure of this franchise is a house of cards, and the true reset will come a year from now. Having to possibly inherit a new coach who will need to develop, say, Malik Willis, is a really difficult business proposition.
Projected trade: The Giants send pick No. 7 to the Saints. The Saints send pick No. 16, No. 19, No. 49 (a second-round pick) and a second-round pick in 2023 to the Giants.
7. New Orleans Saints (via Giants via Bears): Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
We’re assuming, perhaps incorrectly, that the Saints needed that trade with the Eagles to acquire first-round ammunition for a quarterback. We’re assuming, perhaps incorrectly, that longtime Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. would lean toward the quickest release in the draft. Corral is not Drew Brees, but he gets rid of the ball and will pair nicely with the team’s fleet of playmakers. Here, the Giants would forgo the chance to draft Kyle Hamilton and instead add to their future trade stockpile. (Justin Fields, anyone?) In reality, the Giants might want to hang on to this pick, though having additional draft ammo they may use to someday replace Daniel Jones is intriguing.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
8. Atlanta Falcons: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
After stumbling all over themselves during the Deshaun Watson blind dating show, the Falcons must save face and come out of this draft with a better long-term quarterback option than Marcus Mariota. That signing, after the Matt Ryan trade, always had the feel of a bridge maneuver. Willis could be a year away from seeing the field anyway, but possesses high-end potential in the right offense. Remove him from the offensive situation at Liberty, and we could see him grow quickly.
9. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos): Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
A player in consideration for the No. 1 pick, Walker would be a tremendous coup for the Seahawks at No. 9, considering their wealth of defensive needs. His ability to cover as well as rush would give Pete Carroll some fresh blood in a defense that has been picked over for years. One concern? According to Pro Football Focus, almost 50% of Walker’s pressures came in unblocked scenarios or in “clean up” duty. I remember another player—Trey Hendrickson—who had a similar percentage leaving New Orleans for the Bengals, and everything worked out O.K.
10. New York Jets (via Seahawks): Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
It’s difficult to imagine a GM needing a wide receiver so badly that he would get deep into the Tyreek Hill sweepstakes but then pass on the chance to take his favorite wide receiver in the draft. I don’t know who, exactly, that is, but Wilson can elevate quarterback Zach Wilson with his presence and yards after the catch ability. The Jets have realized Zach Wilson is going to be a work in progress. Nothing makes a quarterback better than a receiver who catches everything and turns five-yard completions into 35-yard completions.
11. Washington Commanders: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
The Commanders have plenty of needs here, but it’s fair to wonder whether they’ll ever be picking high enough, or have the administrative flexibility to acquire the ammunition for, a true No. 1 quarterback who could transform the franchise. Pickett could hang behind Carson Wentz and take over if an emergency arose. In 2023, he could then lead a team that hopefully has not alienated the best homegrown wide receiver it’s had in years. Pickett may be victim to the His Hands are Too Small to Play in the Northeast trope, but the Commanders have to stop kicking the can down the road at QB.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Some franchises luck into years of stellar QB play. Some franchises luck into generational Notre Dame safety prospects. While I could see a real analytically minded argument against taking Hamilton here, especially for the well-versed Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, I would point to the Bills and their incredible safety tandem as an indication of how a team can manipulate opposing offenses without necessarily having traditional shutdown corners. Hamilton is one of the best players in this draft … period.
13. Houston Texans (via Browns): Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Just a terrifying presence, Davis may be one of the best overall players in the draft. As we said before, the Texans can truly follow a best-player-available approach, and Davis is most certainly that in this scenario. He can be a foundational player for Houston, getting the Texans immediately tougher against the run in a division with Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne (who we know nothing about as a professional, but has a great deal of talent).
14. Baltimore Ravens: Jermaine Johnson II, edge, Florida State
Drafting Johnson would give the Ravens one of the best young edge tandems in the league—an athletic set of players who could torture Joe Burrow and get upfield quickly to keep Deshaun Watson in the pocket. Obviously, a cornerback makes some sense here for Baltimore, but if you think long-term about the way the AFC North is shaping up, the value will be in more players to swarm the passer.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via Dolphins): Derek Stingley Jr., DB, LSU
If the talent is clearly there, I don’t think I’d be that scared of taking Stingley in the NFL, especially if you have a coordinator like Jonathan Gannon. Gannon, who interviewed for the Texans’ head-coaching job last year and will likely have some options if the Eagles get back into the playoffs in 2022, would have a field day with a press cornerback who has thrived with little to no safety help. Last year, we heard before the draft that the Eagles had their sights set on both of the Alabama wideouts, and if both were gone before their pick, they would have dropped to take a corner. That need still exists. Stingley is a game-changer.
Projected trade: The Saints send pick No. 16, No. 19, No. 49 (a second-round pick) and a second-round pick in 2023 to the Giants. The Giants send pick No. 7 to the Saints.
16. New York Giants (via Saints via Colts via Eagles): George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
The Giants have some room to play with here and a defensive line that needs some serious attention. While I might go with an interior player here, Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll come from a Buffalo team that has brilliantly stockpiled edge talent in the last two years, preparing for a series of deep playoff runs against elite quarterback play. Karlaftis was double teamed frequently at Purdue, which led to some misconceptions about his speed. We had a chance to view part of a private workout with Karlaftis and came away impressed. The Giants can bookend their defensive line and get tougher in a hurry.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
There is nothing more important for the Chargers than Justin Herbert, who has nearly reached transcendent superstardom. Los Angeles is desperately thin at tackle, however, and Penning is a great example of another solid talent falling into the team’s lap. While I liked the idea of a run-stuffing tackle here or a thick off-ball linebacker—two players Brandon Staley could have obviously used in crunch time last year—Penning is going to fill an immediate need, leaving the Chargers to shop run defense and wide receiver in the latter rounds.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Sure, the Eagles are taking another first-round wide receiver. But this is the luxury you have with a relatively intact offensive line and a defense that just scored a major player of need with their earlier first-round pick. Williams would give the Eagles a daunting offense that will absolutely overpower any slate of cornerbacks in the division. Williams, the former teammate of DeVonta Smith, should be ready to go by the start of the season. Howie Roseman & Co. are thinking long-term, anyway.
Projected trade: The Saints send pick No. 16, No. 19, No. 49 (a second-round pick) and a second-round pick in 2023 to the Giants. The Giants send pick No. 7 to the Saints.
19. New York Giants (via Saints via Eagles): Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
I covered the Giants for a few seasons as a day-to-day beat reporter, so I understand I’m going to be littered with compostable material when I mock them an inside linebacker. The Giants, you say, just don’t draft inside linebackers in the first round. My retort? The Giants have an independent eye on their scouting process for the first time since the late 1970s. Off-ball linebackers have never been more important. The Giants’ defense seems, right now, to be far away from a Wink Martindale blueprint. Dean would be a critical piece toward the amoebic looks that made the Ravens’ so hard to contend with. And he’s not just a product of a generationally great defensive line at Georgia. There’s a good deal of independent work happening there, and it’s impressive.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia
I don’t love the Steelers’ inside linebacker situation, but it’s not a helpless one. I also don’t love their cornerback situation and could see them trying to upgrade there. However, Wyatt is so disruptive and I think he’d fix a lot of problems. Pittsburgh is not going to absurdly mortgage its future for a QB here. The AFC North is a marathon right now, and moving too quickly will end up knocking the Steelers out of the race for years to come. I think they could endure a down year like the Patriots did in 2020 while they retool and acquire their long-term option under center. If that’s the case, be smart: Take the guy who is going to tear holes in offensive lines for years to come.
21. New England Patriots: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
This is a difficult one. I don’t like having Lloyd on the board for this long. I don’t necessarily like the Patriots taking him, but there isn’t a coach who could better serve the Utah star than Bill Belichick. Lloyd would help the Patriots create all kinds of legal defensive confusion. He can shoot upfield and take down backs, which is essential in a division with two teams regularly running outside zone. He can also take away intermediate targets, which seriously hampers the progression for two younger quarterbacks in the division.
22. Green Bay Packers (via Raiders): Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
I was told to watch for the edge position here, but Treylon Burks being available changes everything (in this world that I, alone, have created). The Burks–Deebo Samuel comparison checks out on film, and the Packers’ offensive coaches are uniquely informed in the nuances of Kyle Shanahan’s system and how they might be able to set Burks up for yards after the catch situations. In losing Davante Adams, the Packers also lost the ability to create efficient, short-yardage gains in the passing game with mechanical regularity. Perhaps Burks is the answer there, while also alleviating some of the pressure on Green Bay’s running game.
Joseph Maiorana/USA TODAY Sports
23. Arizona Cardinals: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Unless the Cardinals plan to drastically reposition their offense, they will need to upgrade their talent set at wide receiver. The Cardinals cannot win unless they overwhelm with their weapons, and they are currently sporting A.J. Green as their No. 2 wideout. At the combine this year, Kliff Kingsbury admitted he did not do enough to alter the Cardinals’ offense after DeAndre Hopkins went down. Olave would give them a chance to add depth and some multilayered versatility for Kyler Murray.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
Maybe we’re stuck in dated thinking, but the best of what the Cowboys have had to offer as a football team in recent years came with a blue-chip offensive line. The league may be catching up to the Patriots’ and Packers’ long-standing love of cross-trained offensive linemen with experience at various position groups and Green would give the Cowboys a potential talent who can work at different spots and be a salve for the injured. Dak Prescott gets rid of the ball incredibly fast, so cornerback may also be an option here if Dallas’s in-house candidates look intriguing.
25. Buffalo Bills: Trent McDuffie, DB, Washington
When you have almost anything a team could want, you add depth in the secondary. The Bills are so close to crossing that Super Bowl threshold and, while the loss of Brian Daboll hurts, they could ease some of the burden by putting Sean McDermott’s defense on autopilot. McDuffie would change an already versatile, presnap-decision-robbing secondary into an absolute Rubik’s cube for a quarterback to try to solve before each snap. He probably won’t last this long, but some kind of versatile defensive playmaker with tons of upside will land here, and I’d be curious to see if the Bills value bolstering their defense or expanding their playmaker base on offense.
26. Tennessee Titans: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Mike Vrabel is going to have the kind of insight into the Bearcats’ program that Belichick does into Alabama. And while Cincinnati may not yield the same kind of talent font, Ridder is an incredibly talented passer who gives the Titans a hand-the-baton option should Ryan Tannehill falter. Watching Ridder highlights is a blast because he is so smooth. Count the designed number of drop steps and, just as his foot hits the ground, a swooping throw with solid velocity leaves his arm. It’s going to be difficult to disrupt him given how fluid a player he is. Tennessee might want to wait, but it is low on draft capital and will want the rights to Ridder’s fifth-year option. Our resident Ohio State and Ohio State–program-adjacent expert Albert Breer seems to concur.
Projected trade: The Buccaneers send pick No. 27 to the Lions. The Lions send picks No. 32, No. 66 (a third-rounder), No. 177 (a fifth-round comp pick) and No. 235 (the Browns’ seventh-round pick) to the Buccaneers.
27. Detroit Lions (via the Buccaneers): Drake London, WR, USC
The Lions, who own pick No. 32, move up ever so slightly to park ahead of the Chiefs and Packers, two teams that also need wide receiver help. While I couldn’t find a place for London anywhere else in the draft, he makes a good deal of sense in Detroit, where his physical skills can help in tight coverage. The Lions can pair him with D.J. Chark, Josh Reynolds and Amon-Ra St. Brown for an intriguing combination of size that could help Jared Goff in contested situations and in the red zone. London caught end zone fades at USC with almost no vision of the ball save for the moment it hit (one) of his hands. If Detroit brings in its eventual successor at QB in 2023, he’ll be happy the Lions moved up a few picks in ’22.
28. Green Bay Packers: Boye Mafe, edge, Minnesota
Here comes the edge rusher for the Packers. Mafe has the speed to provide Green Bay with an additional presence off the edge. The Packers wanted a player like this and have the requisite time and (somewhat) depth to break Mafe in at the right speed. There is still plenty of draft capital to fill out the pass-catching depth chart for Aaron Rodgers.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via 49ers): Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Don’t call Dotson a Tyreek Hill replacement, because there is never going to be the perfect comp. That said, the Chiefs need speedy playmakers in order for their offense to function and punish defenses with players who can create in short yardage situations. Dotson has some unique tweaks to classic double-move routes that will be freshly annoying for NFL defensive backs trying to slow him down.
30. Kansas City Chiefs: Andrew Booth, DB, Clemson
The best part about Booth may be that so many of his highlights involve him whacking someone or making some kind of unfathomable contested tackle. This will bode well for a corner who will be taking on some rugged offenses in the AFC West, as well as some really good quarterbacks who feast on any kind of hesitancy or discomfort. What is the adult term for swagger? Because Booth provides this as a defensive back immediately—and the Chiefs have no choice but to upgrade there.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
I am admittedly taking this pick from the folks at PFF because I love it so much, and it gives me a chance to slot my favorite player in the draft into the first round. Linderbaum is a superb talent who deserves to be mentioned among the best prospects in the draft. He’s such a fun watch on tape. The Bengals just signed a center (Ted Karras), but one who could play guard. Linderbaum could be Joe Burrow’s eyes up front for the next decade. Duke Tobin, the team’s director of personnel, would never have to answer another question about the offensive line again.
Projected trade: The Lions send picks No. 32, No. 66 (a third-rounder), No. 177 (a fifth-round comp pick) and No. 235 (the Browns’ seventh-round pick) to the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers send pick No. 27 to the Lions.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Lions via Rams): Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
Todd Bowles is in charge now, which means he gets to pound the table for another space-eating defensive tackle who can clear the deck for his talented off-ball linebackers. The most intriguing defenses Bowles has had possessed a mix of interior pocket-pushing power and speed off the edges, which is no secret. Bowles loves to stuff gaps and prey on the traditional soft spots of offensive lines. Jones is large, has a bit of a pass rushing arsenal and hung tough against better opponents late in decided games. He was also, as a Huskie, getting to the QB while double teamed against Clemson. So … not bad.
Editors’ note, April 19 at 8:15 a.m. ET: An earlier version of this story projected the Saints trading a 2023 first-round pick to the Giants. Because they have already traded that pick, the trade now includes two second-round picks instead.
