Evaluating NFL trades is always tricky. Doing so when they heavily revolve around players who’ve never played a snap in the league is even tougher.
That’s the concern with rapid reactions what’s annually the league’s busiest trading stretch. Each year, the NFL Draft plays backdrop to a litany of moves that shake up draft boards and reveal teams’ true priorities. While we know which players have looked good in college and which have all the traits to be solid contributors each Sunday, there’s no guarantee that a prospect, no matter how coveted, will pan out.
That makes grading draft day trades a difficult process. Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better help us understand the price each team attaches to these picks. While there’s no 1:1 translation of how these selections are valued, we know the broad strokes. The most famous trade value chart dates back roughly 35 years thanks to then-Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson. That formula’s been tweaked and evolved many times over since then, but using years of data, Pats Pulpit’s Rich Hill was able to divine an approximation of what Bill Belichick’s pick value system looks like.
We’ll use those charts to understand the raw value of these swapped picks alone, but we’ll also factor in team needs and a prospect’s stock as well to come up with a grade that makes sense Thursday night and may well look very stupid three years later. Here are the deals that went down in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, what Belichick’s guide says about them, and how we think each team did.
The Texans jump-start their rebuild with two top-three picks
Texans receive: Third pick (Will Anderson Jr.), 105th pick
Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart says: Assuming the Texans move to the middle of the standings next fall, the Cardinals got excess value equal to the 24th overall pick by making this deal (2,284 points out, 3,030 points in).
The modified Belichick scale says: Assuming the Texans move to the middle of the standings next fall, the Cardinals got excess value equal to the 11th overall pick by making this deal (547 points out, 905 points in).
Houston cued up the Paula Cole, because it didn’t want to wait any longer on its rebuild. With DeMeco Ryans in place the Texans opted to make its move, dealing away some of the extra draft assets acquired in the Deshaun Watson trade and landing one of the most accomplished pass rushers in FBS history.
Will Anderson Jr. is great; he fills a definite void in Houston and plays a pricy position. Barring injury, he and C.J. Stroud will both create boatloads of excess value compared to their rookie contracts. Those salary cap savings can be used to lure free agents over the next few seasons.
Which is good, because this was an overpay! A reasonable overpay the Texans can afford, certainly, but that’s a lot heading the Cardinals way. Arizona made out with the equivalent of an extra first round pick in the process. It needs it, because this is a team with holes just about everywhere and, per Over The Cap, not a ton of salary cap space with which to fill them. Adding four picks — two firsts, a second and a third — is a great place to start.
Grade: A for the Cardinals, B+ for the Texans
The Cardinals move back up the board to keep Kyler Murray safe(ish)
Cardinals receive: Sixth pick (Paris Johnson Jr.)
Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart says: The Lions got excess value equal to the 86th overall pick by making this deal (1,600 points out, 1,760 points in).
The modified Belichick scale says: The Lions got excess value equal to the 66th overall pick by making this deal (446 points out, 522 points in).
OK. Huh. This didn’t seem like a draft with a surefire No. 1 offensive tackle prospect or a guaranteed top 10 lineman. But something convinced the Cardinals that standing pat with their newly acquired 12th overall pick was untenable.
Paris Johnson is a very good prospect, but is he so much better than Broderick Jones or Peter Skoronski that it’s worth giving up a premier Day 2 just to land him? I’m not sure it is. Pass protection may be a priority for Arizona given Kyler Murray’s recent injury, but these Cardinals have a ton of holes to fill. A shotgun blast of picks was likely to have a higher success rate that a few surgical strikes, which makes this a risk even beyond the draft value overpay.
Ultimately, Johnson has the chops to be worth it. He looks every bit a franchise left tackle. But he’s still growing as a player and has to refine his game to get there — which is totally fine, but maybe not what you want to hear about the guy for whom you just dealt the 12th and 34th overall picks.
Grade: C for the Cardinals, A- for the Lions
Bill Belichick slides backward for minimal gain
Steelers receive: 14th pick (Broderick Jones)
Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart says: The Steelers got excess value equal to the 102nd overall pick by making this deal (1,004 points out, 1,100 points in).
The modified Belichick scale says: The Steelers got excess value equal to the 190th overall pick by making this deal (320 points out, 325 points in).
The Patriots appeared to be a likely destination for Jones, only for the Steelers to offer up a pittance to climb three spots and select him first. New England must have had a wish list four players deep in order to drop back, because this wasn’t an especially valuable trade for Bill Belichick to make.
It is, however, a great landing spot for Jones. The two-time national champion is arguably 2023’s most athletic blocker, and while there’s still room to refine his game he’s about as accomplished as you’ll find among FBS starters. He can immediately step into the starting lineup for Dan Moore and pay dividends in the run game — Najee Harris is going to love him — while rounding into place as Kenny Pickett’s blindside protector.
Grade: A for the Steelers, C- for the Patriots
The Giants make a minor move to secure their cornerback
Giants receive: 24th pick (Deonte Banks)
Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart says: The Jaguars got excess value equal to the 179th overall pick by making this deal (740 points out, 746.6 points in).
The modified Belichick scale says: The Jaguars got excess value equal to the 210th overall pick by making this deal (237 points out, 240 points in).
New York made a minor move to ensure it landed Banks — a top four cornerback in my book but also a guy rated slightly below Penn State standout Joey Porter Jr. There’s clearly some competition for picks late in the first — the Jags traded down again immediately after making this move — so it behooved the Giants to make a minor deal in order to ensure their top prospect.
Grades: B for the Giants, B for the Jaguars
The Bills make a minor move to add tight end depth
Bills receive: 25th pick (Dalton Kincaid)
Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart says: The Jaguars got excess value equal to the 219th overall pick by making this deal (720 points out, 722 points in).
The modified Belichick scale says: The Jaguars got excess value equal to the 200th overall pick by making this deal (230 points out, 234 points in).
So in all the Jaguars moved back three spots and picked up the 130th and 160th picks — roughly equivalent to an early fourth rounder. That’s not nothing, though you can argue Jacksonville is in greater need for one big star than a handful of contributors at this stage in its evolution (I wouldn’t, as I’m here for the shotgun blast approach of picks, especially at this volatile a stage).
There’s a fair amount of tight end depth in this year’s draft and Dawson Knox is a solid, if uneven, player. Still, the price was right when it came to a move up and Josh Allen badly needs support beyond Stefon Diggs. Kincaid is a rising star who barely played the sport in high school and still managed to explode for 70 catches and 890 yards in 12 games at Utah as a senior. He’s a rocket ship, and if the cost of dropping him on Buffalo’s launch pad was a late fourth rounder, well, that’s fine.
The question now is whether the Jags will regret passing on a potential Evan Engram replacement here — or if they’ll just target one later in this deep class.
Grade: A- for the Bills, B for the Jaguars
