Pitching is the most challenging part of fantasy baseball. It would be easy to spend a ton of money on my pitching staff in an auction. I could build a strong base in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, which would give me room for a mistake or two in the decision-making at the backend of my starting rotation. The downside comes trying to build a competitive offense with fewer dollars invested.
There is no way of trading your pitching for hitting in the high-stakes market. It’s challenging to finish midpack in all five pitching categories, never mind winning 66% of the needed pitching points. In a non-trading format, I must balance my budget between hitting and pitching. Pitching is the most frustrating because of the high rate of injuries and failures.
If a fantasy manager had a choice, I believe they would spend most of their money on hitting and fade pitching. In a way, this should be the plan every year, at least in the pre-game planning.
Searching for Values
When I evaluate the pitching pool, I look for buying opportunities. It could be a closer in waiting who might get the job early in the season. Maybe, it is a $10 pitcher who could match a few $20 arms. After reviewing the players, I must decide if I can build my staff for less money than expected.
Dealing with Saves
Many teams will buy one closer. If a single reliever gets 35 saves, my team might win only four points in saves in 12-team AL or NL Roto leagues. It doesn’t seem like much of a return on a $15-plus investment. The truth is you need to get over 50 saves in most seasons in AL or NL auction leagues to get in the top third in saves, which is the main reason many fantasy managers try to buy saves cheap or even punt the category. It’s hard to justify spending 30% of your pitching with a reward of minimal points.
My first step is deciding what I want to do with saves during the auction. After reviewing all the relievers, do I see a closer worthy of a top-tier investment in the auction? If not, is there someone discounted who could return top value? Then, is there a reliever I believe will get a job at some point in the season? After answering all of those questions, I then have to decide how much I want to invest in saves. I would never punt saves totally. Why not grab a couple of closers in waiting in the reserve rounds? It won’t break my auction budget, plus I never know how the season will unfold. Saves are a category that could be the difference between winning or losing a league. My goal is to get a high percentage of saves per dollar invested. If I execute this model, I increase my chances of competing.
I know a stud closer offers more than saves. If the price is right, I might have to bite. In the early years of fantasy baseball, top closers were going for close to $30 or more. Over time, the market corrected itself, where the best closers now cost around $20. If I’m willing to pay $15 for a closer, I better be ready to snap up a top closer if the bidding slows down before $20.
Developing an Ace Foundation
Once I decide on a plan for saves, I need to find a couple of starters who will anchor my pitching staff. This part of an auction is a great equalizer. If I invest top dollars on an ace, it restricts the rest of my pitching staff, unless I am willing to spend a higher percentage of your budget on pitching.
When Pedro Martinez was in his prime, I could pay over $40 for him and still dominate the pitching categories. He had a massive gap over most of the field in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts and the winning target for ERA and WHIP was much higher.
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I could invest $35 in Gerrit Cole or Corbin Burnes, but how much of an edge do they have over the rest of the top pitchers in their respective leagues?
Am I better off buying two $20 starters to build my base? Is there enough talent where I could get four solid starters for around $50? Is it better to buy 200, 400 or 750 good innings? The answers to these questions are in each year's pitching inventory.
In some years, the pitching pool doesn't appear to have a lot of top talent. In other years, there might be enough arms to go around for many teams. After looking at the pitching inventory, it is best to find two, maybe three, pitchers I want to purchase as the core of my pitching staff.
Like the hitting side, I have to find actual auction prices to see if I can build the base of my pitching staff. If I decide to spend $60 on two starters and one closer, I need to know if those players' prices fit my plan. If I view a pitcher as the key to my team, I might need to throw him on the mat early to see if I can execute my plan.
Pitching Spending
Most fantasy managers will spend between $60 and $80 on pitching. By making a $60 investment on three pitchers, I hope to set up my base for all pitching categories. My next six pitchers will be the difference between winning and losing. With limited remaining funds, I need to be well prepared and disciplined to fill the backend of my pitching staff. If I bite early on an $8 pitcher, it might cost me a chance at two $4 pitchers I want later in the auction. Sometimes it isn’t the player's price; it’s the timing of when I roster them.
A fantasy manager or two may try to dominate the pitching categories by spending $100 or more in some leagues. Unfortunately, when this happens, it tends to push up the prices of top-pitching inventory.
Sometimes when the top-end pitching pool looks similar, all teams come to the table with the idea of buying a second-tier ace, which lowers the price of the top pitchers in the auction.
My pitching plan will dictate how much money I have to build my hitting team. It is easier to cheat pitching and spend the money on hitting. In some years, there will be an opportunity to do this. In others, I could be punting ERA and WHIP. I can still win over 50% of the pitching points if I lead wins, strikeouts and saves. There are so many different ways to go on the pitching side.
Each fantasy manager needs to find a plan that creates the best chance to win year in and year out. In a non-trading auction league, I believe in investing in your core players.
Research the player pool to find opportunities in the auction. Come to the auction with an early strategy and a late-game plan. Discipline is a must to execute in the end game if the goal is to win the critical difference-maker players late in the auction.
