The Associated Press released its first Top 25 poll on Monday, signaling that college football debates can finally begin in earnest.
While fanbases are busy arguing over which of their favorite teams should just get a bye to the playoffs now, bettors are scouring the polls looking for any type of edge they can find.
Fortunately, we already have plenty of data we can go off of this season to help us on this journey.
Let’s run through 2022’s inaugural Top 25—arguably the most reliable ranking before the playoff committee releases their first poll later in the season—and see what futures hold.
All odds via Tipico.
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2022 AP Preseason Top 25
Full Rankings (First place votes in parentheses)
1. Alabama (54)
2. Ohio State (6)
3. Georgia (3)
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. Texas A&M
7. Utah
8. Michigan
9. Oklahoma
10. Baylor
11. Oregon
12. Oklahoma State
13. North Carolina State
14. USC
15. Michigan State
16. Miami (FL)
17. Pittsburgh
18. Wisconsin
19. Arkansas
20. Kentucky
21. Ole Miss
22. Wake Forest
23. Cincinnati
24. Houston
25. BYU
Others receiving votes: Tennessee 180, Texas 164, Iowa 163, Penn State 160, LSU 55, Fresno State 32, Minnesota 31, UCF 27, Purdue 17, Mississippi State 15, Auburn 15, Florida 14, Kansas State 14, North Carolina 9, Boise State 5, Air Force 4, Appalachian State 4, South Carolina 2, UCLA 2, San Diego State 2, Utah State 2, Nebraska 1
How do these stack up to the top title odds?
Over at Tipico, oddsmakers are pretty much in line with the AP Top 25 as far as the first four teams go.
- Alabama (+190)
- Ohio State (+320)
- Georgia (+350)
- Clemson (+1200)
Then things start deviating a bit.
While the AP has USC at No. 14, the Trojans are tied for the fifth-shortest odds at +2000 alongside No. 6 Texas A&M.
Notre Dame is No. 5 in the AP poll, but +4000 at sportsbooks (tied with No. 8 Michigan). And while Texas (+6000) is unranked by the AP, it has the same odds to win the title as No. 7 Utah.
Some of this could just be confidence from bettors who are fans of these bigger schools. Some could just be bettors throwing darts. That said, there are a few lessons worth remembering.
Michigan, which made the College Football Playoff last year, was unranked in the preseason AP poll. Clemson was No. 3 in the preseason poll last year and finished No. 14 in the final rankings.
https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1559215191119859714
And while Ohio State fans may be upset that the Crimson Tide are ranked above the Buckeyes to begin the year, that might actually serve as bad news in Alabama.
https://twitter.com/usatodaysports/status/1559215930911211520
The same goes for the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs.
https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1559218209848426496
Despite going unranked in the preseason AP poll for the first time since 2000, LSU (+8000) has the same title odds as No. 10 Baylor, No. 16 Miami (FL) and is ahead of No. 19 Arkansas (+10000) No 20. Kentucky (10000), No. 21 Ole Miss (+9000) and No. 23 Cincinnati (+10000).
The longest odds of any team in the preseason AP Top 25 belong to No. 24 Houston (+30000).
This could actually turn into a tremendous value play for the Cougars, who have the 101st strongest schedule, per ESPN. Houston (+240) has the second-best odds to win an AAC that sent Cincy to the playoff last year.
Are there any notable differences from the Coaches Poll?
A few. But not too many. And none that really stick out. The coaches seem to believe Texas is closer to being back than the AP voters do.
Michigan
- AP No. 8
- Coaches No. 6
Utah
- AP No. 7
- Coaches No. 8
Wisconsin
- AP No. 18
- Coaches No. 20
Texas
- AP Not Ranked
- Coaches No. 18
Arkansas
- AP No. 19
- Coaches No. 23
Ole Miss
- AP No. 21
- Coaches No. 24
BYU
- AP No. 25
- Coaches Not Ranked
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