Bears general manager Ryan Poles wasn’t going to box himself in with precise expectations for the 2023 season, but “more wins” was playing it a little too safe. The Bears could finish 4-13 or 5-12 and have more wins than last season.
In Matt Eberflus’ second season, Justin Fields in his second year in Luke Getsy’s offense and Poles having draft and salary cap capital to mold a roster to fit his needs, the teardown is over, the rebuild is on — and expectations for significant improvement in 2023 should be high.
With that in mind, here’s a reasonable checklist for the Bears to meet those expectations:
- Win eight or more games.
The Bears in reality were a six-win team that won only three games because they were in teardown mode. So anything less than eight wins is marginal improvement at best.
- Have a better record in the final nine games than the first eight.
The Bears are in a formative stage on both sides of the ball — with only four starters on offense and four on defense in the same position Sunday against the Packers as in Week 1 last year. Whether they’re good or bad early, they should be better in the second half. (In Lovie Smith’s second season in 2005, the Bears started 1-3 but won 10 of their last 12 to finish 11-5. In Mike Ditka’s second season in 1983, the Bears were 3-7 but won five of their last six to finish 8-8.)
- Win more than they lose in one-score games.
The Bears were 1-7 in one-score games (beating the Texans 23-20) last season, the failure to finish being arguably the biggest knock on the rebuild. The Bears have to prove they not only are better in 2023, but can win games they don’t necessarily deserve to win.
- Beat a playoff-bound team, preferably later than earlier in the season.
The Bears beat the 49ers last year, but that was in Week 1, with Trey Lance starting at quarterback. You can make the playoffs in the parity-wracked NFL beating the teams you should beat, but ultimately you have to rise to the occasion to beat a team that’s better than you.
- Beat every NFC North team at least once.
The Bears have done that just five times in the 21 seasons of the NFC North in the current divisional set-up — 2018, 2010, 2008, 2006 and 2005. They made the playoffs in four of those seasons, and came one game shy of the playoffs in 2008.
It’s true that Matt Nagy’s first team checked all those boxes in 2018 and was only a one-hit wonder. But that team relied on a dominant defense under Vic Fangio throughout a breakthrough season. This team likely needs to be better balanced — with a better quarterback — to reach those landmarks, and isn’t as likely to be a house of cards if it does.
2. What about Justin Fields? More than Mitch Trubisky in 2018, Fields figures to be a big part of any significant improvement or giant leap the Bears take in 2023 — especially in winning one-score games and beating a playoff-bound team.
Fields has to pass the eye test this season — we’ll know it when we see it. But one statistical barometer that figures to be at the root of any Fields breakthrough — completing 65% of his passes with 7.5 yards per attempt.
Fields completed 60.4% of his passes last year (7.1 yards per attempt). Taking a similar step in accuracy with DJ Moore that Jalen Hurts took with A.J. Brown last season (61.3% to 66.5%) and Josh Allen took with Stefon Diggs in 2020 (58.8% to 69.2%) is where it has to start.
3. Fearful predictions: Justin Fields — 333-of-481 passing (69.2%), 3,787 yards, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 100.6 rating, 423 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns.
DJ Moore — 84 receptions, 1,108 yards, eight touchdowns.
Darnell Mooney — 58 receptions, 762 yards, five touchdowns.
Chase Claypool — 40 receptions, 492 yards, two touchdowns.
Cole Kmet — 48 receptions, 517 yards, six touchdowns.
4. Facing Jordan Love instead of Aaron Rodgers will be the obvious focal point of Sunday’s game. But the Bears’ run defense vs. the Packers’ Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon might be the bigger indicator.
The Packers rushed for 378 yards (5.4 average) and three touchdowns in two games against the Bears last season. Dillon and Jones combined for 33 carries for 193 yards and a touchdown in a 27-10 victory at Lambeau Field and 27 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown in a 28-19 victory at Soldier Field.
The Bears were 31st in the NFL in rushing defense last year, allowing 157.3 yards per game.
5. The List — Besides the obvious newcomers (Moore, Yannick Ngakoue, Tremaine Edmunds), the Bears need some key self-upgrades from 2022. The top five: 1. Fields; 2. Claypool; 3. Cornerback Kyler Gordon; 4. Left tackle Braxton Jones; 5. Safety Jaquan Brisker.
6. Having rookie Tyson Bagent back up Fields is not a best-case scenario, but it’s the best scenario the Bears have entering the regular season, with Nathan Peterman the only other option.
Playing Bagent in the middle of a competitive game would be ideal. But when a big reason for keeping a quarterback on the roster is his “moxie,” — you should probably trust him to handle a tough situation. That’s what moxie is all about.
7. Quick Hits: The last time the Bears faced a Packers’ No. 1 quarterback besides Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre was Don Majkowski in 1991 … DJ Moore and Tremaine Edmunds are the sixth and seventh players to be named captains before playing a game for the Bears in the last five seasons the Bears have named permanent captains … The others are Mike Glennon, Quintin Demps, Danny Trevathan, Antrel Rolle and Pernell McPhee … Never underestimate the mediocrity of the NFL … The Bears have lost seven of their last nine season-opening games … The Panthers are three-point underdogs against the Falcons on the road Sunday … The last two times the Bears have beaten the Packers in the season opener, they made the playoffs — 2006 (26-0 at Lambeau) and 1963 (10-3 at New City Stadium).
8. Marvin Harrison, Jr. Watch: The presumptive first non-quarterback to be taken in the 2024 draft had a modest 2023 debut – two receptions for 14 yards in Ohio State’s lackluster 23-3 victory over Indiana. Harrison also had a 24-yard touchdown nullified (he had stepped out of bounds before making the catch in bounds) and returned after injuring his shoulder in the first half.
9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Defensive end Trevis Gipson, waived by the Bears despite having two sacks, an NFL-high 14 pressures and a forced fumble in the preseason, signed a free agent contract with the Titans — who had previously claimed cornerback Kindle Vildor on waivers.
Gipson was the odd-man out with the Bears but figures to be a better fit in the Titans’ 3-4 heavy defense under Mike Vrabel. Gipson had seven sacks as an edge rusher in the Bears’ 3-4 defense under Sean Desai in 2021. He had three in Eberflus’ 4-3 last season, when he faced the fifth-most double-teams in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats.
10. Bear-ometer: 8-9 — vs. Packers (L); at Buccaneers (W); at Chiefs (L); vs. Broncos (L); at Commanders (W); vs. Vikings (W); vs. Raiders (W); at Chargers (L); at Saints (L); vs. Panthers (W); at Lions (L); at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (W); at Browns (L); vs. Cardinals (W); vs. Falcons (L); at Packers (W).
