#18 SDSU vs. Boise State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
SDSU stops at spud city to sweep and score a seventh straight success.
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The Broncos are playing for an at-large Tourney bid, so the Aztecs must approach this match with absolute vigilance.
WHEN: Tues., Feb. 28th – 6:00 pm PST / 7:00 pm MST / 9:00 pm EST
WHERE: ExtraMile Arena- Boise, ID (Cap. 12,644)
WATCH: CBSSN
STREAM: FuboTV — get a free trial
RADIO: San Diego Sports 760 / SiriusXM App ch. 968
SERIES RECORD: San Diego State and Boise State meet for the 29th time Tuesday evening. The Aztecs are 18-10 versus the Broncos.
LAST MEETING: The Aztecs defeated the Broncos 72-52 at Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA, on Friday, February 3rd.
WEBSITES: GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website; BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website.
ODDS: Boise State -.5
OVER/UNDER: 132.5
Boise, ID – The No. 18 SDSU Aztecs (23-5, 14-2 MW) visit the Boise State Broncos (22-7, 12-4 MW) at ExtraMile Arena for the second of a two-game series. Coach Leon Rice’s Broncos lost to SDSU by 20 points at Viejas Arena on February 3rd, but this time the Broncos have home court, and like the Lobos, they’re playing with desperation and intensity as a NCAA Tourney bubble team.
The Aztecs are on a roll, riding a high after escaping Albuquerque with a last-second win on a Lamont Butler buzzer-beating three pointer in front of the first sold out Lobos crowd since 2009. They’ll be seeking another pronounced victory to secure outright the Mountain West regular season title with one more road victory.
Both of these teams appear to be evenly matched on paper.
Who will win? Let’s take a closer look.
Why The Broncos Will Win
Leon Rice’s squad are seeking redemption after a sub-par result against the Aztecs in early February at Viejas Arena, during the first game in this series. The Broncos are also looking to shake off a disappointing loss against San Jose State this past weekend.
The Broncos roster is, compared to the Aztecs, pretty thin. But, they are highly formidable. The Broncos are arguably one of the most underrated teams in the country thanks to their dynamic defense.
The Broncos rank 10th in defensive efficiency, so they will be able to counter Aztecs defense with their own brand of stifling coverage. The Broncos are also top-20 in several categories, including opponent rebound rate and field goal percentage. Three-point shooting will shape this game’s outcome. Even as good as the Aztecs are at defending from behind the arc, the Broncos will come into this game wiser for their recent Aztecs loss.
The Broncos have since gone a respectable 5-2 with wins over Air Force, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico alongside losses to San Diego State and San Jose State.
Matched up against San Jose State on Saturday, the Broncos scored 31 points in the first half, 27 in the second and 10 in overtime on the way to a 74-68 loss. Leading team scorer Chibuzo Agbo posted 17 points and two boards.
Why The Aztecs Will Win
The Aztecs are 23-5 this season after defeating New Mexico 73-71 on Saturday. San Diego State shot 44.3% from the field and was +11 in rebounding margin in the win. The San Diego State Aztecs are averaging 73.6 points per game, 64.9 points against per game, 35.5 rebounds per game, and 13.9 assists per game. Matt Bradley has led the Aztecs this season with 13 points per game, 3.9 rebounds per game, and 2.3 assists per game. San Diego State is shooting 45.4% from the field, 72.6% on free throws, and 36% on three pointers this year.
The Aztecs have been one of the most consistent teams throughout the entire country. With a 44th-ranked offensive efficiency and rank of 13th in defensive efficiency, they fit the mold of a team primed to make a deep run.
The Aztecs are extremely deep, as they rank inside the top 50 in bench minutes. This will definitely play a part in this matchup, as Boise’s rotation is much, much thinner.
This matchup will hinge on their ability to contain the Broncos from beyond the arc, which they were able to do in the last match, when the Broncos were just 3-for-18 from beyond the arc.
What Will Happen
Like the Lobos, the Broncos need this win. They’ll be hyper-focused on pulling out a victory on their home court. The Aztecs will have to remain vigilant and avoid an early breakout in scoring.
The Aztecs showed serious grit during their match against the Lobos. They returned from a 13-point deficit, after trailing for much of the game for 10+ points, and they had enough faith and trust in each other to manufacture a win out of certain doom at the Pit, in a building full of rabid fans. In short, the Aztecs are genuinely battle tested.
Many prognosticators are leaning toward a Boise State win, however the Aztecs are simply too hard to beat right now. Their road games have come down to the wire in many cases, but they disproportionately keep coming out on top, and that has to be attributed to coach Brian Dutcher’s experience. The Aztecs are going to escape with a win by five points.
Final Score: SDSU 61, Boise State 56
