Earlier this week, we highlighted the 15 most improved players for the Green Bay Packers during the 2022 season. Now, it’s time for the other side of the equation: players who regressed.
It’s a long, disappointing list.
In fact, there’s arguably no better synopsis of the Packers’ season than this list. Almost every important veteran player regressed in some meaningful way during the 2022 season, and the lack of development and/or regression stands as one of the biggest reasons why Matt LaFleur’s team went from 13-4 in 2021 to 8-9 in 2022.
So buckle up. Here are the Packers players who regressed the most from 2021 to 2022:
1
S Adrian Amos
2021 grade: 74.7
2022 grade: 54.2
Regression: 20.5
Amos also made this list last year, highlighting his steep decline from an elite 2020 season. Last year, the fall was from elite to solid. In 2022, Amos dropped from solid to replaceable. For the second straight season, Amos gave up six touchdown passes in coverage. Quarterbacks had a passer rating of 121.9 when targeting him, and he broke up only two passes. Amos remains a solid tackler who can play the run consistently, but his regression in coverage has been substantial. His contract voids this offseason.
2
OLB Preston Smith
2021 grade: 81.5
2022 grade: 66.4
Regression: 15.1
Smith delivered 8.5 sacks, the most of his career during an “even” year. But he didn’t come close to matching his excellent play from 2021, especially in terms of playing the run and producing pressures. After creating 63 pressures on 732 snaps last year, Smith had 42 on 825 snaps in 2022. He also missed a career-high 15 tackles and had a ridiculous missed-tackle percentage of 24.2. His 31 stops were a career-high.
3
QB Aaron Rodgers
2021 grade: 89.4
2022 grade: 77.5
Regression: 11.9
Rodgers averaged 6.8 yards per attempt (7.8 in 2021), threw 12 interceptions (4 in 2021) and had fewer “big time throws” (36 to 33) and more “turnover worthy plays” (13 to 18) in 2022. His overall grade was still the 12th best at the quarterback position. Amazingly, only six players threw more interceptions than Rodgers in 2022, and he ranked 22nd in completion percentage and 17th in passer rating.
4
LB De'Vondre Campbell
2021 grade: 85.0
2022 grade: 73.2
Regression: 11.8
Campbell’s fall in 2022 looks like the same elite-to-solid drop-off that Amos experienced between 2020 and 2021. While still a reliable player, Campbell wasn’t the same consistent difference-maker he was in 2021. He struggled against the run and missed a career-high 11 tackles, and his number of stops dropped from 55 in 2021 to just 27 in 2022. An injury did cost him four games. Most jarring: Campbell’s missed tackle percentage went from 2.8 in 2021 to 10.1 in 2022. He’ll turn 30 years old in July.
5
CB Eric Stokes
2021 grade: 65.5
2022 grade: 53.7
Regression: 11.8
A rough sophomore season for Stokes, the team’s top pick in 2021. He gave up 21 catches on 25 targets for 275 yards, allowed a passer rating of 125.8 into his coverage, missed five tackles and then went down for the year with significant knee and ankle injuries in Week 9. The Packers need him to bounce back in a big way in 2023.
6
S Darnell Savage
2021 grade: 57.3
2022 grade: 47.5
Regression: 9.8
Over the second half of the 2020 season, Savage looked like one of the best young defensive backs in football. He’s regressed so sharply over the last two seasons that it’s fair to wonder what’s next for the 2019 first-round pick. In 2022, Savage missed 12 tackles, had only three stops and gave up two touchdown passes, all while intercepting just one pass (on a deflected pass in Week 17). While gifted, he just isn’t reliable. The Packers benched him and tried him in the slot but the improvement was marginal. Savage graded out as one of the worst starting safeties in the NFL.
7
OL Elgton Jenkins
2021 grade: 82.1
2022 grade: 72.3
Regression: 9.8
Returning from a major injury and a failed experiment at right tackle contributed to Jenkins’ fall. His biggest drop-off came in pass-blocking, where he gave up a career-high three sacks and 17 pressures. He rebounded over the second half of the season and settled in at left guard. The Packers don’t have any worries here; the team gave him a long-term extension.
8
TE Marcedes Lewis
2021 grade: 75.1
2022 grade: 65.6
Regression: 9.5
Is Father Time finally catching up to the veteran tight end? He caught only six passes in 2022 after producing 24 in 2021, and his run-blocking hasn’t been as consistently dominant. Lewis, who turns 39 in May, will be a free agent again this offseason.
9
DL Kenny Clark
2021 grade: 75.4
2022 grade: 66.4
Regression: 9.0
Clark had 23 fewer pressures (68 to 45) and 13 fewer stops (18 to 31) in 2022. Not much more needs to be said. He was less disruptive and received only average grades against the run.
10
OLB Jonathan Garvin
2021 grade: 75.4
2022 grade: 66.4
Regression: 9.0
There was no third-year jump from Garvin, who produced seven pressures, two batted passes and zero stops over 194 total snaps. It was an empty season mostly void of impact on defense.
11
DL Dean Lowry
2021 grade: 66.8
2022 grade: 59.3
Regression: 7.5
Lowry has always been an unreliable player against the run for the last four years, but his value really cratered when his pass-rushing impact dried up again in 2022. He went from 42 pressures and five batted passes in 2021 to just 17 and one in 2022. Lowry’s contract voids this offseason.
12
LB Krys Barnes
2021 grade: 53.8
2022 grade: 46.7
Regression: 7.1
Barnes lost his starting job to Quay Walker and only played in six games due to injury. Over 141 snaps, he gave up 10 completions, missed three tackles and committed a penalty. Barnes also graded out as one of the Packers’ worst special teamers. It’s possible he’ll be playing elsewhere in 2023.
13
OLB Rashan Gary
2021 grade: 89.8
2022 grade: 82.9
Regression: 6.9
Gary was enjoying an excellent season when he went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 9. Without the injury, there’s a good chance he’s nowhere near this list. Gary did miss tackles at a 16.7 percent clip, and his pass-rushing numbers weren’t quite as good as in 2021.
14
RB A.J. Dillon
2021 grade: 86.2
2022 grade: 81.4
Regression: 4.8
Dillon was still terrific in the run game and actually improved as a pass-blocker, but his production and efficiency in the passing game dropped significantly. After catching 34 of 37 targets for 313 yards and two scores in 2021, Dillon hauled in just 28 of 43 targets for 208 yards and zero touchdowns in 2022. He also dropped six passes.
15
CB Rasul Douglas
2021 grade: 74.5
2022 grade: 71.1
Regression: 3.4
A small but notable drop from Douglas, who gave up completions on 67.1 percent of targets, allowed four touchdown passes and committed seven penalties. He did create a career-high 32 stops, one of the best totals from an NFL cornerback in 2022, and he intercepted four passes after picking off five last year.
16
OL Jon Runyan Jr.
2021 grade: 64.6
2022 grade: 62.6
Regression: 2.0
Runyan gave up fewer pressures (17 compared to 21 in 2021) and had a higher pass-blocking efficiency, but his grade dropped as a run-blocker, contributing to an overall drop of a few points. Having to switch from left guard to right guard during midseason probably didn’t help his cause.
