It seems a bit silly to even mention the phrase “hot seat” when we still haven’t even kicked off a ball in the 2023 season.
But this is modern college football. The sport has become dominated by both massive coaching contracts and, in turn, an expectation for quick success.
Gone are the days when coaches were given years at a time to program-build. The transfer portal allows for much quicker roster transitions than were previously possible, and NIL provides a more even playing field — in theory, at least.
But Power Five schools aren’t just becoming more impatient in terms of how long they’re willing to extend the benefit of the doubt to their coaches. They’re also becoming increasingly more likely to make changes mid-campaign, often even before November.
In 2022, seven Power Five coaches were fired before the start of the final month of the season. Three of those didn’t even make it to October.
That’s a trend we will almost certainly see continue in 2023. With that in mind, here are 12 Power Five coaches who absolutely must start the season on a high note to avoid the hot seat.
Some of these are new coaches still looking to prove themselves, while others are longer-tenured and hoping to recapture past success that has since faded. But the uniting thread between them all is that they could be searching for new jobs next year if they don’t turn things around quickly.
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Jeff Hafley, Boston College
Hafley had a good start to his tenure in Chestnut Hill, going 6-5 with a surprising 5-5 record in ACC play during the COVID-impacted 2020 season. Much of that had to do with the play of Notre Dame quarterback transfer Phil Jurkovec, who had a very solid season.
However, Jurkovec’s play diminished over the next two seasons as Boston College fell to 6-6 in 2021 and 3-9 in 2022. Jurkovec has since transferred to Pittsburgh, and although this team added a talented transfer portal wideout from UCF in Ryan O’Keefe, it’s hard to imagine BC improves much from last year’s campaign.
If the Eagles are an ACC bottom-feeder once again, as is likely to be the case, it’s hard to imagine the former Ohio State defensive coordinator will stick around in 2024.
Mario Cristobal, Miami
Cristobal pitched himself to the Miami faithful as the man who would finally return this program to its glory days. Given the fact that he’s a former player with strong recruiting ties to the region and a solid track record as a coach, it’s easy to see why that narrative was so palatable.
But that isn’t exactly how the first 18 months and change of Cristobal’s time in Coral Gables have gone. The Hurricanes disappointed on the field in 2022, floundering to a 5-7 finish that featured losses to Texas A&M and Middle Tennessee State, with the latter coming at home.
Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke entered last year with high expectations but was inconsistent and couldn’t secure the starting job. He’s back on a team that should take a step forward after adding some transfers.
Still, the trajectory here isn’t great. Strong early recruiting returns have since diminished a bit, and while it would likely take a very disappointing season for Cristobal to find himself in danger of losing his job, he could find himself under a lot of pressure next offseason without a sizable step forward.
Dino Babers, Syracuse
Babers is one of two coaches here who also appeared on last year’s list, and it looked like he was putting the hot-seat conversation to rest in the first half of 2022.
The Orange started the year 6-0 and reached as high as No. 14 in the rankings. However, it dropped six of its final seven, and those conversations reignited.
Ultimately, Syracuse chose to stick with Babers, which is understandable after he reached a bowl game for the first time since 2018. Still, he’s just 36-49 with the program and could be in trouble if his team backslides at all in his eighth season.
Dana Holgorsen, Houston
It was seen as a pretty big coup at the time when Houston pulled Holgorsen away from West Virginia and the Power Five. Bringing back the former Cougars offensive coordinator and Mike Leach acolyte seemed like a fantastic move for a program that had seen a lot of success by Group of Five standards.
On paper, it still seems like a good fit, but the results have been middling at best. Holgorsen had sub-.500 seasons in 2019 and 2020 before it looked like the team was taking a step in the right direction with a 12-2 campaign in 2021.
But Houston regressed to 8-5 in 2022, and it leaves the comfort of the American Athletic Conference behind to join a crowded Big 12. Houston is largely expected to finish near the bottom of the league in Year 1, and the Cougars may have a tough decision to make.
It does seem a bit hard to believe a move gets made here given the contract extension he signed in 2022 that will likely make a buyout pretty pricey.
Matt Campbell, Iowa State
If you had told me just a few years ago I’d be including Campbell on a hot-seat list, I would have had a hard time believing you. After all, he was once seen as a rising star in the coaching ranks.
But the early positive returns in Ames never really amounted to anything. He’s only won nine games once, and that was back in 2020. When the result of the COVID season is an outlier in either direction, it’s important to take a look at the larger body of work.
And that body of work is lacking. Iowa State went 4-8 last fall, and with the Big 12 adding programs that have historically been more successful than the Cyclones, it’s hard not to feel like the window has closed.
Add in the fact that this team will likely be missing multiple starters as a result of a gambling scandal — including starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers — and we could potentially see the floor fall out for Campbell’s program in 2023.
Brent Venables, Oklahoma
No one can fault Venables, who had brushed off head coaching opportunities in the past, for finally leaving Clemson’s staff to take the job at his alma mater. The Sooners’ defense in Year 1, on the other hand…
Oklahoma finished 6-7 in 2022, and in fairness to Venables, that could have pretty easily been a lot better. Four of those losses came by three points.
But the Sooners were overmatched against the Big 12’s best teams, losing 55-24 to TCU and 49-0 in an embarrassing Red River Rivalry loss to Texas. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel battled injuries, and the defense wasn’t effective enough to keep the team in games.
It’s pretty easy to see this team taking a leap in 2022, but if it doesn’t and the defense is porous once again despite Venables’ reputation as one of the sport’s best defensive minds, it wouldn’t be too hard to picture Oklahoma bailing early on this hire.
Neal Brown, West Virginia
As things currently stand, Brown occupies what is probably the hottest seat in college football. He won 31 games in his final three seasons at Troy, but that success just hasn’t translated to the Power Five level.
He’s never won more than six games, nor has he turned in a winning season outside of 2020’s 6-4 finish. 2022’s 5-7 finish was particularly disappointing as the addition of former USC and Georgia quarterback JT Daniels didn’t work out.
Many expected the Mountaineers to move on from Brown last season, but a roughly $17 million buyout likely saved him. That number drops by about $7 million this season, and barring a serious turnaround, West Virginia will likely opt to move on.
Tom Allen, Indiana
We’ve gotten to the second returning name on this list, and Allen really didn’t do much to alter his situation in 2022.
There was a time when it looked like no one in college football was doing more with less. The Hoosiers went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020 behind strong quarterback play from Michael Penix Jr. But Penix battled injuries as Indiana fell to 2-10 in 2021.
Penix then transferred to Washington, and while the Hoosiers nominally improved to 4-8 last fall with Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak — who has also since moved on — it didn’t really provide any reason to believe this team is getting back on track.
Allen seems to be well-liked and has achieved some success at an undeniably hard job. Still, it feels like his team needs to show at least some signs of life on the field this season to justify keeping him around for Year 9.
Justin Wilcox, California
Following the 2021 season, Wilcox had the opportunity to take the head coaching job at his alma mater, Oregon, which he declined.
It’s a decision he may come to regret.
It’s nothing against Wilcox personally. We’ve seen the California job chew up and spit out good coaches before (hello, Sonny Dykes). This is an academically focused school in a state that features more traditional powers, and it’s always been a struggle for the Golden Bears to compete from a resource perspective — a factor that impacted its being left behind when other conferences raided the Pac-12.
Wilcox had an 8-5 season in 2019 but is just 10-18 since. It’s hard to find reasons for optimism here, but the lack of resources and existential question marks beyond 2023 could also play in Wilcox’s favor.
With all these problems on its plate, would Cal really want to add a coaching search to them?
Jake Dickert, Washington State
Of all the coaches on this list, Dickert certainly achieved his current position under the most bizarre of circumstances.
He became acting head coach in Oct. 2021 when former coach Nick Rolovich was fired for failing to comply with the state of Washington’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, and after guiding the Cougars to a 3-3 finish (including a 3-1 record in conference play), he was elevated to the permanent position.
Wazzu entered 2022 with some hype after picking up Incarnate Word transfer quarterback Cam Ward, as well his head coach in Eric Morris to run the offense. Ward had his moments but struggled with consistency, while Morris departed after the season to take over as head coach at North Texas.
Coming off a 7-6 season, Dickert — a mostly transitional hire who only had two years of FBS playcalling experience before becoming a head coach — may not have enough support to remain.
Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri
I would argue that Drinkwitz is the biggest enigma among college football coaches.
He’s just 16-17 in three seasons at Missouri and is still yet to finish on the right side of .500. Further, his one season of head coaching experience prior to arriving in Columbia came at Appalachian State, where he went 12-1 but inherited a very successful program from Scott Satterfield.
I just don’t know what to make of this guy.
The Tigers are yet to win much of note during his tenure, and last year’s 6-7 season featured a mind-boggling loss to Auburn which probably allowed Bryan Harsin to survive at least a couple weeks longer than he should have.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. Drinkwitz has had some legitimately impressive recruiting wins, landing five-stars in receiver Luther Burden in 2022 and current high school senior defensive lineman Williams Nwaneri, two of the three best prospects the program has signed in the recruiting rankings era.
I get why Missouri continues to put its faith in Drinkwitz, but that has to finally show up on the field in Year 4.
Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M
Before you say it, yeah, I know. Texas A&M has a lot of reasons to not move on from Jimbo Fisher after this season. Approximately 77 million of them, actually.
Fisher is on a fully guaranteed contract that pays him about $9-10 million per year and runs through 2031. Firing him after this season would be ludicrous. Right?
Maybe. Maybe not.
There’s no denying the failure of 2022. Fisher’s team entered with playoff hopes and finished 5-7, losing to Appalachian State at home and missing a bowl. When the Aggies saw a rush of players hit the portal following the season, it seemed like the buyout figure was the only thing keeping Fisher in College Station.
Perhaps it still is, but he could still turn things around in 2023. This team still returns a lot of defensive stars and a budding quarterback-receiver duo in Connor Weigman and Evan Stewart.
Bobby Petrino was brought in to run the offense — though we don’t know in what official capacity — and this feels like a potentially volatile situation. I think Texas A&M is more likely than not to get back on track, but if it doesn’t, this thing could get ugly fast.
$77 million is a lot of money to you or me or anyone, for that matter. But is it really unthinkable that Aggies boosters could find that money if their proud program falls further into becoming a laughingstock? Especially on the eve of former Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Texas joining the conference?
I think it’s a possibility worth considering.
Group of Five Honorable Mentions
Group of Five programs tend to be a bit more patient than their power conference counterparts, and that results in longer tenures and leashes for those coaches. Down seasons are generally more tolerated (though not always).
Still, there are coaches in the lower ranks who are underachieving and could be in jeopardy this season. Here are a few worth keeping an eye on.
- Ryan Silverfield, Memphis: Silverfield is just 21-16 and hasn’t managed to maintain the success his predecessors Mike Norvell and Justin Fuente found. With the ambitious Tigers being left out of another round of realignment, this seems like a program primed to make a change.
- Mike Bloomgren, Rice: There aren’t many programs where a 16-39 coach gets a Year 6, but Rice is one of them. He likely saved his job by reaching a bowl game at 5-7, and though he was in the mix for the Stanford job, he can’t afford a drop-off in what could be a fun year with JT Daniels making his fourth stop in Houston.
- Scott Loeffler, Bowling Green: Despite a 7-22 start with the Falcons, Loeffler delivered a masterclass in job-saving by taking Bowling Green to a bowl game. Loeffler earned a transitive property win over Notre Dame by beating a good Marshall team but lost to Eastern Kentucky in seven overtimes the week prior. This seems like an obvious regression candidate after a 2022 season filled with variance.
- Danny Gonzales, New Mexico: It was frankly surprising that Gonzales stuck around after a 2-10 season in 2022 that dropped him to 7-24 overall. The Lobos obviously believe in what he’s building, but this is a prove-it year. He’s probably on the G5’s hottest seat.
- Shawn Elliott, Georgia State: The former interim coach at South Carolina has turned in winning seasons in four of his six campaigns, but an 8-5 finish in 2021 was the peak, which was followed by a 4-8 season last fall. This program rests right in the heart of downtown Atlanta, and the Panthers just don’t seem to be capitalizing the way many of their regional contemporaries in the Sun Belt are.
