The Chicago Cubs do not want the last two years to be part of a trend in the wrong direction.
Ending the season 74-88 kept the Cubs at home for the postseason in a second straight year. Six consecutive seasons with a winning record that featured three division titles and a World Series championship seemed to be the start of a dominant era in the franchise’s history. As the Cubs look to return to the playoffs next season, an important offseason awaits, carrying lessons from this year.
1. Keegan Thompson is, at the very least, a multi-inning bullpen weapon.
Thompson will be part of the pitching staff next season after giving the Cubs versatility. The right-hander made 17 starts and 12 appearances out of the bullpen in 2022. It’s too early to know how he fits in, but that is also part of the 27-year-old’s appeal.
“I see Keegan as a really important piece to our success, where that fits in, the roster will shape out,” manager David Ross said during the final week of the season. “He’s done a really nice job of a multi-inning role out of the bullpen that I really trust and he’s also done a really nice job starting, so the more of those guys that can do both, I’ll take them all.”
After his shortest start of the season June 12 at Yankee Stadium, Thompson posted a 1.93 ERA over his next five starts. Beyond that stretch, he struggled with consistency as a starter before late-season back tightness cost him nearly a month on the injured list. Thompson thrived in his relief role, owning a 1.47 ERA in 36⅔ innings with a 0.900 WHIP and a 30.0 K%, more than 10% higher than when he started.
Rotation injuries led to Thompson’s in-season transition to starter, and it would not be a surprise if he opens 2023 as a reliever and starting pitching depth. Thompson is expected ramp up in the offseason to prepare to report to camp as a starter, but Ross clearly values having Thompson as a weapon in various high-leverage spots out of the bullpen, a role that might be his best fit.
2. Ian Happ showed he can be the all-around player who would warrant a contract extension.
Consistency eluded Happ through his first five major-league seasons. For stretches, Happ could be one of the Cubs’ best hitters with his combination of on-base percentage and power, but outside of the shortened 2020 season, putting together a complete season offensively and defensively didn’t always happen. His struggles through the first four months in 2021 cost him regular playing time and made his future in a Cubs uniform murky.
A strong final two months carried into this season, and combined with the Cubs giving him a set position in left field, Happ thrived. He produced his most complete season, easily leading Cubs position players in games (158) and earning an All-Star nod. He didn’t rely on home runs when driving the ball, finishing tied for sixth in doubles (42) in the majors, more than twice his previous career high.
It was the performance Happ needed as he enters his final year of arbitration before becoming a free agent after the 2023 season. Without mentioning specific players, President Jed Hoyer stated Monday that the Cubs had taken the first steps on contract extensions, efforts that are expected to carry into the offseason. Happ, who turned 28 in August, would seem to fit the mold.
“His career had been marked prior to this year by really high highs and really low lows, and he made a very concerted effort with his swing and his mentality to even it out, and I think he did a fantastic job,” Hoyer said. “And there’s no reason that he can’t continue to do that. ... He really found his voice from a leadership standpoint, and it was really, really gratifying to see that, so I’m excited.”
3. Baserunning must improve and will be a focal point.
Winning teams consistently do the little things well, and baserunning falls under that scope. The Cubs’ sloppy play on the base paths would have proved costly had games mattered. Some of the miscues were aggressive attempts to manufacture runs for an offense that could not regularly rely on homers.
By the end of the season, the Cubs’ baserunning issues earned criticism from the generally positive Ross. His frustrations in that area were warranted. Although the Cubs ranked seventh in Extra Bases Taken Percentage (44%) and tied for second best in going first to third, their 68 outs on the bases were second most in the majors while they had the most outs at home with 24. There are times to push it, but too often the aggressiveness did not pay off.
Hoyer noted Monday the Cubs’ at-times sloppy baserunning and cited it as an area they can significantly improve. Hoyer didn’t blame the coaching staff but made clear baserunning will be a “real focus” in offseason meetings, how they go about things in spring training and their approach throughout next season.
“You have to address those things with each player and talk through it,” Hoyer said. “At times we made obvious mistakes. There’s a difference between being aggressive and giving up outs, and sometimes we gave up outs.”
4. The strong 39-31 second half must not be overvalued.
The momentum the Cubs carry into the offseason is encouraging. Led by the pitching staff, most notably the rotation, the Cubs got into a groove during the second half, kick-started by sweeping the Phillies in Philadelphia coming out of the All-Star break.
There is some danger to overvaluing the Cubs’ 39-31 record over the final 2½ months. Only nine of their 22 series in that span came versus teams that finished with a winning record, though a high point was going 9-0 against the Phillies and New York Mets. Overall, the Cubs went 37-58 this season against opponents with a record above .500.
It is a credit to Ross and the coaching staff for how players competed during the second half. Young players gained valuable experience. But the quality of competition was not high in that stretch, and even Hoyer agreed there is some danger in how the organization evaluates the second half.
“(When) we’re not in a pennant race, you can play sort of free and easy, and I think that matters,” he said. “Some of what we saw in the first half was probably somewhat schedule-related, injury-related, and some of the second half we have to keep in mind that guys were able to play free and easy at the end. ... We have to be mindful of that.”
5. The roster needs more star power.
A common attribute among playoff teams is the presence of elite players. Nearly every team that made the postseason features at least one big name with many teams feature numerous stars. Since last year’s trade deadline, the Cubs roster is arguably devoid of game-changing talent, particularly the kind fans pay to see at Wrigley Field.
“You want to make sure that you add those players at the right time for the organization, and we have to make those decisions,” Hoyer said. “But there’s no question that those caliber (of) players can certainly swing a playoff series or make the difference in a couple of games to make the playoffs and not make the playoffs. But you have to make sure you sign those players at the right time.”
For a big-market team, the Cubs — who seemingly are on the verge of expecting to be a regular postseason contender — the time to add big-name talent should come this offseason. They have the money to make it happen, and the roster needs a serious upgrade in star power. Maybe someone within the organization will develop into one, but waiting for the right time to acquire a star might mean letting good fits pass by.
6. Some thump is needed in the lineup.
The Cubs made a concerted effort to shift from a too much swing-and-miss and power-heavy lineup the previous year or two to add contact hitters and emphasize bat-to-ball skills and approach, yielding some improvements in the latter this season.
But the Cubs need more power hitters, which especially became evident when playing in so many one- and two-run games. Their Isolated Power (ISO), which measures hitters’ raw power, ranked 18th in the majors while they were 14th in home run to fly ball rate.
Expect them to target more thump in the offseason to complement Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki and Happ, who were able to create contact and put the ball in play with some consistency. Less station-to-station offense.
“We have to be a little quicker-strike offense than we were,” Hoyer said. “I liked the fact that we’re making more contact. I did think there were times we grinded out at-bats, but we lacked the ability to pull away in different games. And that’s something we have to get better about.
“Great teams blow people out, and as we think about where we want to be eventually, that is a big focus that you’ve got to be able to score runs in bunches, and we weren’t able to do that this year.”
7. With only one player left from 2016, this season was a reminder the fall from the top can be quicker than expected — and painful.
It’s a bit remarkable that with catcher Willson Contreras receiving — and likely rejecting — a qualifying offer from the Cubs to become a free agent next month, only one player from the 2016 World Series title team will remain on the roster. And plenty of questions revolve around that player, right-hander Kyle Hendricks, and his health and reliability for next season. The Cubs had eight position players, either starters or considered valuable regulars, who were in their age-26 season or younger when they won the title. And the oldest of them all on that postseason roster now manages the team.
The point of the initial rebuild under Theo Epstein and Hoyer was to avoid this scenario the organization has been going through the last two years in tearing down the big-league roster, replenishing the farm system and hoping this time the Cubs build a better foundation for sustained success. Drafting and signing amateur talent to then developing them into foundational pieces is an important part of the equation.
There is no reason the Cubs shouldn’t be able to do what the Los Angeles Dodgers have accomplished in the last decade: making the postseason each year behind nine division titles, advancing to three World Series and winning a title. The Atlanta Braves, too, have been rolling the last five years with five playoff berths and the 2021 title and have locked in most of their young, star talent through aggressive pre-free-agency extensions.
There is a path forward for the Cubs to get back on another dominant run, and if they execute, the organization should be able to avoid having to endure another rebuild within the next decade.
8. A bigger test awaits manager David Ross.
It is difficult to assess a manager’s in-game decisions when outcomes are meaningless in the grand scheme of the season. Ross often maintained that he focused on trying to win that game each time he arrived at the ballpark. The reality, though, is he wasn’t given a roster expected to make the postseason; the roster would have needed to max out its potential, and injuries early in the season, namely to the rotation, quickly thwarted any hopes of that.
The 2022 season provided a few more glimpses into Ross’ style, including how he manages a pitching staff. The last three years each presented different challenges because of the pandemic-shortened season, COVID-19 protocols and then the lockout.
Ross, who in March received a contract extension through 2024, has continued to grow in his role. But the time will come when his in-game management will come under much greater scrutiny, perhaps as soon as next season, when his decisions more directly affect the Cubs’ postseason quest. The clubhouse dynamic will continue to shift, too, one that is nearly void of any of his former Cubs teammates.
9. Payroll flexibility is great — if the Cubs use it.
After the 2023 season, the Cubs will have only three guaranteed contracts on the books: Suzuki, David Bote and Marcus Stroman, who could choose to void that year by opting out after next season.
The Cubs have plenty of paths to harness their payroll flexibility. They are nearly $125 million under the competitive balance tax for next season, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts’ estimates, which include player benefits, pre-arbitration bonus-pool money and minor-leaguers on the 40-man roster. An aggressive mindset entering the offseason for the Cubs front office should mean they would acquire impact players even if they are wary of long deals. Shorter years and more money could be an option when pursuing top free agents.
10. Nico Hoerner gives them a piece to build around.
Building from within is always important during any teardown, and successfully identifying which homegrown players can be important pieces to build around is key. Hoerner’s performance this season further showed why the Cubs think so highly of the 25-year-old infielder.
Aside from a fluky collision with an umpire, he stayed healthy for most of the season at shortstop, where the daily physical and mental grind can be a challenge. Hoerner showed more power, hitting 10 homers in 517 plate appearances to more than triple his home run total from his first three seasons (three in 378 PAs).
Hoerner’s work ethic and emerging leadership cannot be overlooked either. His path from first-round pick in 2018 to starting shortstop hasn’t been a traditional minor-league trek, but Hoerner has become an asset whose defensive versatility is valuable while his power potential might not have been reached yet despite coming off career-best slugging numbers. Hoerner’s offensive profile likely won’t produce gaudy numbers, but he’s exactly the type of players winning teams need.
