The calendar has moved past the 2023 NFL draft, so now we’re at the point in the offseason where we go from NFL mock drafts to “fantasy” mocks. With most of the free agents signed, the rookies drafted and more news coming out about the status of players returning from injuries, mock drafts will be much closer in terms of their potential accuracy of player values and projected draft positions.
After a few pre-NFL draft, five-round mocks, here’s my first one-man, 10-round mock for 2023. One thing you’ll notice is that unlike most mocks I’ve done in the past, wide receivers have become more prominent. The big-name, elite running backs are still very valuable, of course, but it’s impossible to ignore the numbers we see from wide receivers, most notably the younger players coming in and making a major impact.
Elite quarterbacks have also moved up, as you’ll see two come off the board in the top 24 picks and a third selected in the top 30. Times are changing, folks.
This mock includes 12 fantasy “teams” and is based on a PPR scoring system. Each team used different “strategies” with their first three overall picks so you can see how the roster is built at the top. Notice, wideouts have passed runners in volume.
Note: I did not include Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette or any free agents.
Team 1: Wide receiver, quarterback, running back
Team 2: Running back, wide receiver, wide receiver
Team 3: Wide receiver, quarterback, wide receiver
Team 4: Wide receiver, running back, quarterback
Teams 5 & 12: Running back, wide receiver, running back
Team 6: Wide receiver, wide receiver, running back
Team 7: Running back, running back, running back
Team 8: Running back, wide receiver, tight end
Team 9: Tight end, wide receiver, wide receiver
Team 10: Running back, running back, wide receiver
Team 11: Wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver
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ROUND 1
1.1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
1.2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
1.3. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
1.4. Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
1.5. Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers
1.6. Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
1.7. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
1.8. Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
1.9. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
1.10. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
1.11. Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
1.12. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
Notes: I’m a running backs truther, but even I see Jefferson as the top overall pick. The overall shift to drafting more wide receivers is also evident, as four of the first six picks are receivers. McCaffrey, my top running back, was the No. 2 back in 2022. He’ll continue to thrive in San Francisco’s runner-friendly offense. Ekeler was the top-scoring running back in fantasy football, and he’s the lone player at the position to score 300-plus points in each of the last two years. But where will he play in 2023 and beyond? Stay tuned. Chase missed five games last season but was fourth in points-per-game average among wideouts. Kupp averaged 22.4 points for the Rams and was on pace to score 380.5 points before he was injured and missed the final eight games. That total would have put him ahead of Jefferson for the lead at wide receiver. Hill finished second in points among wideouts and proved he didn’t need Patrick Mahomes to remain a stud on the field and in fantasy land.
Barkley has been franchised by the Giants, but he hasn’t signed his tag just yet. I’m assuming he will. Maybe I’m too high on Robinson, or maybe I’m not high enough? I’ve seen analyst mocks where he’s the No. 2 pick. Regardless, the new lead runner in Atlanta will be a first-rounder in all redrafts. Taylor was a massive disappointment in 2022, finishing outside of the top 30 backs after being the top overall pick in drafts. Still, he’s just 23 and should rebound. I’m not saying I would draft Kelce in Round 1, but he’s so much better than every other tight end in the league that he’ll be a top-10 pick in most leagues. Henry finished as the RB4 last season, but he’s had a ton of carries in his NFL career and will be heading into his age-29 season.
ROUND 2
2.13. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
2.14. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
2.15. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
2.16. A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
2.17. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
2.18. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
2.19. Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
2.20. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins
2.21. Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys
2.22. Josh Allen, QB, Bills
2.23. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Cardinals
2.24. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Notes: Seven wideouts came off the board in this round, compared to a mere three running backs. Chubb did see his value rise though, as the Browns won’t bring back Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Jonson signed with the Jaguars. Jacobs, like Barkley, has been franchised but didn’t sign his tag. Brown and Lamb are both coming off career years and will be top-20 selections. St. Brown has moved up after posting his second big fantasy season, and Wilson should shine with Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets. Hopkins is getting older, but he was productive in 2022.
Pollard’s draft stock rose a bit with the release of Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, and the team didn’t take a high impact running back in the draft. I have two quarterbacks, Allen and Mahomes, coming off the board in Round 2. Shocking, but true!
ROUND 3
3.25. Breece Hall, RB, Jets
3.26. Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
3.27. Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles
3.28. Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
3.29. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots
3.30. Ken Walker, RB, Seahawks
3.31. Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars
3.32. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
3.33. DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
3.34. Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
3.35. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
3.36. Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
Notes: This round features several good, young running backs who have mid-RB1 upside. If he’s recovered from a torn ACL in time for Week 1, Hall will be a major asset and could move up in future mocks. Stevenson was the RB7 this past season, and Damien Harris signed with Buffalo. New England did add James Robinson, though. Walker lost some of his luster when the Seahawks added Zach Charbonnet in the draft, but I’m not convinced he’ll see a huge decline in touches. Etienne has top-15 potential at his position in what remains an explosive Jaguars offense.
Hurts had a career season in 2022 and belongs in the top 30 moving forward. He could be the first field general picked in many drafts. Harris fell from the ranks of the first round after a sophomore season that saw him average a modest 3.8 yards per rush and post just 41 catches. The Steelers did address the offensive line in the draft, though, so he should be better in terms of his rushing numbers.
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ROUND 4
4.37. Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
4.38. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
4.39. Chris Olave, WR, Saints
4.40. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
4.41. Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
4.42. Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars
4.43. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
4.44. T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings
4.45. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
4.46. Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders
4.47. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
4.48. Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans
Notes: The round starts with Cooper, whose value rises a bit with Deshaun Watson for a full season. Burrow is now locked in as a top-50 pick and he’s the consensus No. 4 fantasy quarterback. Cook saw his yards per rush average decline a season ago, and he’s more of a risk heading into his age-28 season. There’s also been a few reports he could be moved. Stay tuned. Ridley is flying up ADP boards and is now a top-50 pick. Olave will play alongside Michael Thomas (for how long, no one knows), but he’s the better of the Saints wideouts from a fantasy standpoint.
Pierce averaged almost 13 points per game as a rookie and should retain the top spot on the depth chart in Houston under new coach DeMeco Ryans. The addition of Devin Singletary could hurt his ceiling, though. Gibbs is the second rookie off the board, but can he avoid the Curse of Barry Sanders? I joke (kinda). Hockenson, who was the TE2 last season, is now a top-50 overall pick at what is a weak position.
ROUND 5
5.49. DJ Moore, WR, Bears
5.50. Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars
5.51. Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
5.52. James Conner, RB, Cardinals
5.53. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts
5.54. Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
5.55. Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
5.56. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
5.57. D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles
5.58. George Kittle, TE, 49ers
5.59. Miles Sanders, RB, Panthers
5.60. Christian Watson, WR, Packers
Notes: Moore has moved into the top 50 now that he’s been traded to Chicago.
Williams remains a question mark after a serious knee injury, and new coach Sean Payton recently said the runner “hopefully, might not start on PUP.” It’ll be a good idea to handcuff him with Samaje Perine (see Round 8). Pittman will have a new quarterback, either Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew, but he’ll remain a No. 2 wideout or flex option. Godwin and Evans are tough to rank after Tom Brady’s retirement, but both have seen a decline in value regardless. Whether it’s Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, the downgrade at quarterback is massive. Swift, who was traded to the Eagles, could be a decent bargain if he can avoid injuries.
ROUND 6
6.61. Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles
6.62. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
6.63. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos
6.64. Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
6.65. Cam Akers, RB, Rams
6.66. Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals
6.67. Justin Fields, QB, Bears
6.68. Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers
6.69. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens
6.70. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
6.71. Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons
6.72. Drake London, WR, Falcons
Notes: Jackson, Herbert and Fields are all on the same quarterback tier and are all picked within six spots of each other in this mock. Jackson has a new deal with the Ravens, and all three had talent added to their passing games. The stock of Akers and White are on the rise after their respective teams decided not to add much competition in the draft. Kamara, who is a declining fantasy player and could be facing a suspension, has fallen all the way down to the sixth round after being a top-20 pick most of his career. Two Falcons, Pitts and London, finish out the round.
ROUND 7
7.73. Darren Waller, TE, Giants
7.74. Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs
7.75. David Montgomery, RB, Lions
7.76. Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers
7.77. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
7.78. James Cook, RB, Bills
7.79. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
7.80. Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
7.81. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Patriots
7.82. Khalil Herbert, RB, Bears
7.83. AJ Dillon, RB, Packers
7.84. Jamaal Williams, RB, Saints
Notes: Waller’s stock rose a bit with his trade to the Giants, but durability concerns do remain. Thus, he’s a seventh-rounder. The round contains some upside runners in Pacheco, Cook, Herbert and Williams (who could be the best Saints back when you consider Kamara’s situation). Lawrence is the last of the top eight signal-callers based on my rankings, and he could end up being a good value with Ridley now in the mix. Burks has sleeper/breakout appeal as the No. 1 wideout in Tennessee.
Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
ROUND 8
8.85. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
8.86. Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos
8.87. Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns
8.88. Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders
8.89. Rashaad Penny, RB, Eagles
8.90. Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys
8.91. Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars
8.92. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
8.93. George Pickens, WR, Steelers
8.94. Samaje Perine, RB, Broncos
8.95. Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
8.96. Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders
Notes: The round starts with two quarterbacks in the first three picks, Prescott and Watson. For those who still want to wait on the position, that duo would be at the top of the list. Cooks is more of a No. 3 wideout or flex in fantasy leagues, but he still has 1,000-yard potential in Dallas. Thomas is a huge risk because of his proneness to injury, but he’s worth a look at this point in the draft. Addison, the favorite to be the No. 2 wideout in Minnesota, is the first rookie receiver off the board. The duo of Robinson and Gibson is tough to decipher, so they’re being drafted closely together. Neither back will be picked as more than a No. 4 fantasy running back, though.
ROUND 9
9.97. Kadarius Toney, WR, Chiefs
9.98. Daniel Jones, QB, Giants
9.99. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Ravens
9.100. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers
9.101. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
9.102. Gabe Davis, WR, Bills
9.103. Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
9.104. Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens
9.105. Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings
9.106. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
9.107. Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans
9.108. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs
Notes: The round begins with the projected No. 1 fantasy wideout in Kansas City, Toney. Beckham is a ninth-rounder as a risk-reward No. 4 wideout, though his stock could rise a bit with some impressive reports from camp this summer. I do have OBJ ranked as the top Ravens wideout, even after the selection of rookie Zay Flowers. Speaking of rookies, Smith-Njigba is the second first-year receiver off the board. Mattison is a handcuff for Cook, and he could go higher if reports persist that Cook could be moved. McKinnon, newly re-signed with the Chiefs, could be a value.
ROUND 10
10.109. Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders
10.110. Devone Achane, RB, Dolphins
10.111. Damien Harris, RB, Bills
10.112. Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers
10.113. Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons
10.114. David Njoku, TE, Browns
10.115. Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks
10.117. Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins
10.118. Greg Dulcich, TE, Broncos
10.119. Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers
10.120. D’Onta Foreman, RB, Bears
Notes: Dotson, who showed flashes during his rookie season, is the first player off the board in the round. There are plenty of backfield handcuffs, too, including Allgeier and Charbonnet. Achane is the first Dolphins runner to come off the board, slightly ahead of Mostert due to the PPR scoring system. If you decide to wait on a tight end, borderline No. 1 options like Njoku and Dulcich will be your best options.
