Fantasy football draft season is slowly but surely approaching and average draft position (ADP) data is changing with each passing day. Injury news, training camp reports, preseason snap distributions and even suspensions and late signings are changing the value of different players with the Sept. 7 season opener just a few short weeks away.
Using NFFC average draft position data, I singled out 10 players whose stock has risen in recent weeks and examined why that might be the case. Perhaps some of these players are now being overdrafted or their draft position is finally catching up to where they should have been selected in the first place.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars
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ADP: 42.48
Ridley’s upward climb has coincided with video evidence from training camp that he looks ready to return to his 2020 self after nearly two full years away from football. He played the most snaps with the starters among Jacksonville’s wide receivers in the team’s first preseason game and caught both of his targets from Trevor Lawrence, who is widely expected to make a leap in Year 3. Ridley is being drafted ahead of Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, both of whom are coming off career years.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
ADP: 64.46
Reports out of San Francisco this summer have been high on Aiyuk, the team’s leading returning receiver. He led the 49ers in target share in the five regular-season games Brock Purdy started and finished the year as the WR15, well ahead of Deebo Samuel (WR38). Still, Aiyuk is being drafted after both Samuel and George Kittle. Though his stock is on the rise, Aiyuk could still end up being a steal in drafts at his current price.
Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
ADP: 68.86
Williams’s average draft position is on the rise in light of positive developments regarding his return from an ACL tear. Head coach Sean Payton said the third-year back is “100% right now” and Williams is expected to take the field in Week 2 of the preseason for the first time since October. A positive showing could skyrocket his ADP even further and potentially depress that of Samaje Perine, Williams’s backfield counterpart who Denver added in the offseason.
James Cook, RB, Bills
ADP: 80.44
Cook is inheriting the RB1 spot in Buffalo after a promising rookie season. He played every snap with the starters in the first preseason game, though free-agent pickup Damien Harris (knee) was sidelined. Cook only logged 110 touches a year ago, so he’ll have to shoulder a much heavier workload in his second season. He has a shot to outperform his ADP on one of the best offenses in the league, especially if Josh Allen does dial back his rushing attempts in favor of more checkdowns to Cook.
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
ADP: 92.20
Now that the length of Kamara’s suspension is known (three games), managers have begun drafting him appropriately without worrying about a more severe punishment coming down from the NFL. New Orleans projects to have a better offense in 2023 with Derek Carr under center in place of the duo of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, which could mean a bounceback for Kamara. The six-year veteran just recorded his lowest fantasy finish (RB16) but he’s currently being drafted outside the top 30 at his position.
Elijah Moore, WR, Browns
ADP: 102.38
Moore, who showed flashes in New York, never put it all together, in part due to the revolving door at quarterback. Heading into his third season, the former second-rounder appears primed for a breakout after an offseason trade to Cleveland. The hype train has steadily been building for Moore, who received a carry out of the backfield in the Browns’ second preseason game. Moore is currently being drafted several rounds after Amari Cooper and well ahead of Donovan Peoples-Jones, his fellow starting receivers.
Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
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ADP: 108.33
The last time Thomas played a full season was before the pandemic. That much is a red flag, but you also must remember he was the overall WR1 in 2019 when he set the single-season record for receptions with 149. At this point, it’s entirely fair to be out on Thomas, who’s played 10 games in the last three years, but his draft position has been depressed to the point where he’s starting to look like a value. As of now, he’s healthy and he just played 100% of the snaps with New Orleans’ starters in the preseason opener.
Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs
ADP: 116.83
Someone other than Travis Kelce has to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes this year. Kadarius Toney (knee) is not only hurt, but he’s being drafted well ahead of Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has never had 700 receiving yards in a season. The hype is starting to build for Moore, a 2022 second-round pick, as Week 1 approaches. Perhaps Kansas City's WR1 is hiding in plain sight.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills
ADP: 146.54
Kincaid has drawn rave reviews in training camp, which carried over to his preseason debut when he lined up with the starters. Buffalo used its first round pick to add another weapon for Allen and has gone as far as employing “11.5 personnel” with Kincaid lined up as a combination wide receiver/tight end in the slot to create mismatches. It’s uncommon for rookie tight ends to contribute all that much for fantasy, but Kincaid might be utilized in a rare way that allows him to make an early impact.
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jaguars
Bigsby has been talked up in training camp and his preseason performance (which included a 34-yard romp) did little to throw water on the burgeoning hype train in Jacksonville. Travis Etienne Jr., who’s fresh off an RB17 finish, is still entrenched as the starter but the Jaguars added a capable backup in the third round who might help out around the goal line. If anything, he’s a good handcuff who might end up providing some standalone value late in the year.
