The definition of a “boom or bust” fantasy player is simple. Either a player performs to or above his average draft position (ADP), or he fails to meet those expectations. Some players can fit under the definition of both labels before drafts, however.
Last season, Saquon Barkley was the poster boy for such a player.
The Giants running back had barely played the previous two seasons due to injuries, and when he did play, he wasn’t nearly as productive as he was as a rookie. Still, he was a second-round pick in many leagues. That created a boom or bust scenario. Luckily for fantasy managers, Barkley finished fifth in points among backs and was well worth the risk. He became a “boom” selection as a result.
The same didn’t hold true for Deebo Samuel.
Coming off a breakout 2021 campaign, Samuel was considered a second-round pick in most 2022 fantasy drafts. That was despite having had just one truly elite season in the fantasy space. Unfortunately, Samuel failed to meet expectations, finishing a less than stellar 37th at wideout. Thus, he was labeled a “bust.”
With that said, here are 10 players who fit that boom or bust label heading into 2023. Where should you draft them (it at all) this upcoming season? Find out.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Richardson has all the talent in the world as an athlete, and his high level of mobility makes him a potential superstar in fantasy leagues. In fact, he’s being picked as a top-12 player at his position in best-ball leagues despite being a starter for just one full season in college. That’s where the bust factor comes in, as Richardson has questions about his passing skills in his first season in the league.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
Robinson was considered the most talented running back in the 2023 NFL rookie class, and that was evident in his selection as the eighth overall pick. He’s going even higher in fantasy mocks, with an ADP of 5.5 on Fantasy Calculator. I love his talent and would take the risk of grabbing Robinson in Round 1, but there are no guarantees he’ll meet expectations in a backfield with Tyler Allgeier.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings
The release of Dalvin Cook placed Mattison in the fantasy spotlight. Entering his age-25 season, he’s in the prime of his career and in a position to break out. As a result, his ADP has moved up into the top 40. However, Mattison has had more than 16 touches in a game just five times and fewer than 15 carries in all but five of his career contests. I’d take the chance, but I’m not expecting elite totals.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
The Gibbs hype is beginning to build, as his ADP is now up to 36 overall on the FantasyPros compiled data. That will happen when your skill set is compared to that of Alvin Kamara. Gibbs will have to compete with David Montgomery for touches, though, and he’ll also have to overcome the Curse of Barry Sanders. He could break out in PPR formats, but I’d be wary of reaching for Gibbs in standard formats.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks
Walker would have been on my list of breakout players, but the Seahawks went out and took Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the NFL draft. While I’m not convinced that was some sort of death blow to Walker’s value, you’d be a fool not to think his ceiling took a hit. I’m not saying he’ll be a total bust, but a push into the top 12 or 15 among fantasy running backs is now far less likely in 2023.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens
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Dobbins has shown flashes of potential in the pros, but his rise to stardom has been held back due to knee injuries. Still, he’s being picked as a top-24 fantasy runner based on current ADP data on Fantasy Calculator. The talent and the opportunity are certainly present, but can Dobbins meet expectations? He’s never seen more than 17 touches in a game, and Gus Edwards could hurt his ceiling.
Chris Olave, WR, Saints
The fantasy world expects Olave to be one of the top breakout wideouts in the NFL this season. That’s pretty obvious, as he’s holding a best ball ADP of 18.9 and is the WR14 based on current mock draft data. I’m all in on Olave, too, but what if Michael Thomas actually plays a full season? And what if Derek Carr’s rapport with Thomas is better than with Olave? I’m still taking the chance, but there’s bust potential.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
As I mentioned earlier, Samuel is coming off a disappointing season that saw him drop 170.5 points compared to 2021. Still, Samuel is coming off the board as the WR13 with an ADP of Round 3 on Fantasy Calculator. If his breakout season was the outlier and Samuel is simply a 12-13 points-per-game wideout, fantasy managers will regret taking him that high and ahead of teammate Brandon Aiyuk.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans
Hopkins has long been a fantasy superstar, but can he continue at that level or will he fall into the same trend as wideouts like Randy Moss, Andre Johnson and Julio Jones? That trio all went to the Titans late in their careers and saw decided declines in their personal statistics. Nuk is coming off the board later than in previous years, but he’s still being picked as a high-end No. 2 receiver in recent mocks.
Darren Waller, TE, Giants
The good news about Waller is that he’s not going to cost you a top-50 pick in drafts. The bad news? He’s missed 13 games over the last two years, he’s been mostly an inconsistent player since 2020 and he’s had just one really elite fantasy year. Yes, there’s a chance Waller could lead the Giants in targets. But to expect a return to his most productive days will likely lead to disappointment.
