10 best predictions for this week’s college football slate. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for the Week 9 games?
10 Best College Football Predictions: Week 9
Expert Picks
Week 9: College Week 8: NFL
Week 9 Game Previews
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Results So Far: 48-42-1
I’m not a superstitious person unless my fantasy players are in the red zone – if you drafted Josh Jacobs, you have the way I sit to thank for all this production – and I don’t really buy into trends without any logic or reason.
However, even though everything in betting needs to be thought out and reasoned to justify the investment, sometimes … whatever. Just go with what’s working until the world tells you it’s over.
For example, if it seems like just about every Big 12 game is 38-34 or 44-40 with the home team winning, that’s because it’s true.
Helped by the in-game line change, the overs on Big 12 games dominated last weekend – and the week before, too.
Oh, and the Big 12 home teams went 4-0 straight up last week after going 4-0 the week before.
It’s not quite as big a trend in the Pac-12 – Washington won at Cal last week, and the Golden Bears covered – but it’s close.
The Big Ten? Five game sweep by the home teams after going 4-1 the week before.
That all might seem basic – of course the home teams are supposed to win – but if that’s happening and the visiting teams in the big conferences aren’t coming through, sometimes the spreads will defy logic and reason for the home side.
You’ll see what I mean in a moment. That, and yes, you don’t have to yell. I’ve been going point total heavy lately so this will be all about the picks against the spread this week except for two that have to be on here.
But first, speaking of defying logic and reason …
Click on each game for the preview
10. Michigan State at Michigan
LINE Michigan -22.5
PICK Michigan State
Do I think Michigan is fantastic this year? Yeah. Do I think Michigan State stinks? Yeah.
Really, though. Michigan trucks Penn State in the one great performance over a good team and we’re supposed to just hand over the Big Ten crown? Not quite, but it’s playing well.
Really, though, Michigan State slips past Wisconsin at home and we’re supposed to think all is fine after an ugly four-game losing streak? Not quite, but the Spartans might not be as bad as everyone thinks.
The real reason for this pick ATS is because the program has given Jim Harbaugh – and Michigan overall – fits.
There was the Spartan win last year, and in 2020, and in 2017, and 2015, and 2014, and 2013, and 2011, and …
Michigan has only beaten Michigan State by 23 or more once since 2022, and Harbaugh has yet to beat Mel Tucker.
Michigan wins, but sort of like Sparty’s loss to Washington, the team will keep trying late.
LINE Navy -13.5
PICK Temple
Temple always seems to mess me up ATS – that 16-14 loss to Rutgers was just wrong – but this might be too simple.
Navy runs well despite losing three of its last four games, and Temple is mediocre against the run, especially over the last two weeks.
Now, outside of the 70-13 loss at UCF the Owls have been able to keep games low scoring and relatively close, and there aren’t going to be a ton of possessions in this. However, Temple is awful in the time of possession battle, and Navy should have the ball for close to 40 minutes.
Home field should matter here for the spread, unlike …
8. Arkansas at Auburn
LINE Arkansas -3.5
PICK Arkansas
Are we supposed to buy in that Auburn is okay now just because the running game worked last week to get past the hook and barely cover against Ole Miss in the 48-34 loss? Not really.
Are we supposed to freak out over an Arkansas defense that’s not stopping anyone as it works on a fourth game away from Fayetteville in the last five dates? Maybe a wee bit.
It would be nice if the line could go down to 3 by game time, but this is a focused Arkansas team that appears to be holding a grudge after a controversial spiked ball thing the last time the gams was in Auburn that really 1) should’ve been ruled a backward pass and Hog ball and 2) was a fluky technicality that should’ve been blown off a long time ago.
Arkansas fans care, the program cares, and 3.5 might seem easy if the defense cares to come up with a few more stops.
7. Kentucky at Tennessee
LINE Tennessee -11.5
ATS PICK Kentucky
This was nicer at 12.5, but go ahead and buy in that this might be interesting.
Obviously Tennessee could go off and make this seem foolish with a 48-10 win, but Kentucky has a way of grinding games down and avoiding shootouts.
By the way, because of that, and even though last year’s 45-42 Tennessee win was wild, the 61.5 point total might be high even for a Vol game. No UK game has come close to going over 62 so far.
Kentucky is a different sort of team and might have just enough of a curveball style to screw things up. Remember, in the two losses, one was without future NFL starting QB Will Levis against South Carolina, and the other was in a late bad luck thing happening in a 22-19 loss to Ole Miss.
And it might help that the possible No. 1 pick in the draft is going against the nation’s second-worst pass defense.
Tennessee might have rocked LSU, but it only beat Florida by five, Pitt by seven, and overall it seems like the betting public is piling on way too much respect because of the show this Vol team puts on.
6. Northwestern at Iowa
LINE Iowa -10.5
ATS PICK Iowa
This dropped from Iowa -11 – thanks.
As much as everyone wants to talk about how bad the Iowa offense is – and it is – there’s a reality no one seems to be considering.
Out of the seven games Iowa has played so far, it dealt with the nation’s No. 1 (Illinois), No. 2 (Ohio State), No. 5 (Michigan), No. 7 (Rutgers), and No. 9 (Iowa State) defenses in college football.
The 27-0 win over Nevada was played in and around a crazy storm, and yeah, the 7-3 win over South Dakota State – as ugly as it was with two safeties and a field goal – was against the No. 3 D in the FCS.
No. Iowa won’t go off, but as good its defense is and as miserable as Northwestern’s is, mid-20s to 10ish should work.
