We enter each NFL postseason expecting fireworks and stunning performances. But not every team participating has the same exact power to amaze us. And that’s what makes this whole win-or-go-home thing so much dang fun.
As the 2023 NFL Playoffs begin this weekend with the Wild Card Round, I thought it fair to wonder about a potential path to the “Big Game,” Super Bowl 57, for all 14 teams. Because regardless of the realism, regardless of the clear favorites, technically, everyone has a path. It’s just that some are far narrower than others.
From one legendary quarterback’s “magic” to managing the health of an ascending star on a top seed, here’s a breakdown of one key reason why each of the 14 teams in the 2023 NFL Playoffs can win it all. (Note: These are not rankings. This is simply by seeding when noting the list number.)
14
Seattle Seahawks
How they win the Super Bowl: The 49ers bench George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. To start.
Between two divisional wins, San Francisco blasted Seattle a combined 48-21 this season. The Seahawks are a nice story. I want Geno Smith to thrive so badly. Still, the NFC’s No. 7 seed doesn’t have an “authentic” path to the Super Bowl.
13
Miami Dolphins
How they win the Super Bowl: I’m not even remotely joking. Rewind to right before Tua Tagovailoa’s first concussion this year in October and actually, you know, take care of his safety.
If the Dolphins had reportedly put Tagovailoa’s well-being first — above how well he hits Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in space — they’re probably not in an untenable situation. Because it’s too late. Tagovailoa’s not playing in only Miami’s third postseason appearance in the last two decades. Rookie backup Skylar Thompson is going against the Bills on the road.
12
Jacksonville Jaguars
How they win the Super Bowl: Trevor Lawrence ascends to an even higher plane of existence, and a playmaking defense continues to create turnovers.
The Jaguars won their last five games to storm their way to an AFC South title largely because their Golden Boy quarterback Trevor Lawrence played, well, like a Golden Boy this year. Despite a slow start, Lawrence finished in the top 10 in RBSDM.com’s Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). Especially down the stretch, Lawrence, quite literally, morphed into the player we thought the Jaguars were getting with a No. 1 overall pick.
Throw in an opportunistic Jaguars defense — led by Josh Allen (the other one) and Rayshawn Jenkins — that’s created five turnovers and allowed just 22 points in its last three games, and you have a volatile mix. The other AFC contenders are good, some even great. But they are not invulnerable, especially to a great quarterback and a defensive unit playing on the balls of its feet.
11
Tampa Bay Buccaneeers
How they win the Super Bowl: Let Brady Magic run wild.
Unless Tom Brady Magic goes into overdrive and starts having better players on better teams make the silliest random mistakes — the way they always seem to do with Brady on the opposing sideline — the awful Buccaneers aren’t winning the Super Bowl. They’re a shell of their Super Bowl 55 championship team from two years ago.
That is … unless Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys do Cowboys things and choke in the Wild Card. Then a less-than-100-percent Jalen Hurts isn’t himself in the Divisional Round. And, after the Buccaneers exploit Brock Purdy’s limitations in the NFC title game, they topple a sloppy Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Again.
Hey, wait a minute. That could totally happen! (But it’s probably not going to.)
10
New York Giants
How they win the Super Bowl: Lean on the league’s best brand of “Bully Ball.”
By 2022 standards, the Giants’ style of play is a bit backward. They have the NFL’s 26th-ranked passing offense but the fourth-best ground attack. Meanwhile, the 27th-ranked rushing defense gets gashed by seemingly anyone with a pulse and an average scheme. But the 15th-best passing defense is … passable.
It makes no sense. Compels me, though.
If the Giants can stay true to themselves, if they’re not forced to be something they’re not — an explosive passing team with experience — they can make a run. It’s when they lie to themselves and when they have to play from behind, that the Giants make life unnecessarily hard. However, after a relative cupcake opener against the Vikings, it’s doubtful they can afford such a consistent luxury of being themselves throughout any deep playoff run.
9
Los Angeles Chargers
How they win the Super Bowl: Once again, not even remotely joking — fire Joe Lombardi.
To be brutally honest, the Chargers’ offense is too timid to win a championship. And that’s just an awful stroke of luck, considering their best and most important player, quarterback Justin Herbert, plays offense. Funny how that works! But seriously, Herbert’s Average Depth of Target and YPA resembles something of a backup who never thought he was going to be pressed into action — not one of the more purely gifted young passers of his era.
Herbert might go Super-Saiyan and transcend past his pit of Southern California mediocrity. But I doubt it. No quarterback could be perfect enough in four straight games to survive this depressingly middling Chargers situation.
8
Baltimore Ravens
How they win the Super Bowl: Pray all potential opponents’ team buses and private team planes are diverted back toward home at the last moment.
Without a healthy Lamar Jackson, this team isn’t going anywhere over the next few weeks. They have almost zero shot — I’m leaving room for the tiniest morsel of variability — of accomplishing anything postseason-wise this year. The Ravens’ “tense” rivalry matchup with the Bengals is probably over before it even starts, with the guy who usually carries on them on his back not playing.
7
Dallas Cowboys
How they win the Super Bowl: Stay the course when the going gets tough.
I’ve talked about it at length this year. The Cowboys have the talent to play for a championship. That they have a roster on par with any of the other heavyweight contenders has never been a Super Bowl. It’s how they close with the bumbling Mike McCarthy and sudden turnover pumpkin Dak Prescott (tied for the NFL lead with 15 interceptions) that’s the problem.
Dallas has the chops to hang with the Eagles and 49ers and can certainly clock the Buccaneers if they put their mind to it. The question is whether they will. Because this looks like a squad that wilts when it meets resistance in tough times. And that’s the worst kind of team to be in the postseason.
6
Cincinnati Bengals
How they win the Super Bowl: Get the ball into Ja’Marr Chase’s hands and watch him work.
There was a time, oh, not too long ago, when some believed Joe Burrow was more of a product of being able to throw to elite talents like Chase rather than an outright elite quarterback. This was, of course, silly, as every quarterback needs legitimate playmakers to play well. But the idea lived on simply because of how good Chase was and is and how he took last year’s postseason over.
As the Bengals made a surprise run to the Super Bowl 56, Chase amassed 25 receptions (on an efficient 35 targets!), 368 yards, and almost 18 yards a catch (!). Especially for a rookie wideout, it was one of the greatest postseason performances in the modern NFL era and arguably the most significant catalyst behind the Bengals’ success.
Needless to say, Cincinnati should not veer away from this plan this January. Continue force-feeding Chase the ball. Get the ball into the hands of your best playmaker and watch him take over a game. Again. And again. And again.
5
San Francisco 49ers
How they win the Super Bowl: Protect Brock Purdy from himself.
If anyone knows how to put a safe but productive bubble around a quarterback, it’s Kyle Shanahan. The offensive genius has made a career out of getting a chicken salad from, well, you know. And he’ll have to continue doing the same this postseason for Purdy, who, while an inspiring story, is a former seventh-round pick for a good reason.
On paper, the 49ers will have the postseason schedule to do it. A “gauntlet” that shouldn’t intimidate Purdy in the least. Should matters break their way, San Francisco will likely play some combination of an overmatched Seattle squad, a paper tiger Vikings squad, and a year-ahead-of-schedule Giants team in the first two rounds. And if they make it to the NFC title game, Jalen Hurts, with an injured shoulder, is waiting for them. (Never mind the juggernauts on the AFC side. The 49ers have enforcers, i.e., a cadre of All-Pros, to contend with them.)
Talk about getting the luck of the draw.
All Purdy — and Shanahan, by extension — has to do is play the game within himself. You know the cliche. Take what the defense gives him. Because these defenses are likely to provide him with a lot, and if that happens, these 49ers might cut through the playoffs. If not, Purdy has not yet been stretched thin. The worst time for him to really be pressed for the first time would be in a tense playoff game.
We are not talking about prime Tom Brady in the clutch (even though, ironically, Purdy’s early career somewhat mirrors Brady’s).
4
Minnesota Vikings
How they win the Super Bowl: Get extremely, extremely lucky. In four straight games. This is not a barb, just a statement of pity: Good luck, fellas.
The Vikings finished the 2022 season with a -3 point differential. They won an NFL record 11 one-score games. They had no business, at least any that didn’t defy logic, of being a playoff team, let alone the NFC’s No. 3 seed. What this flawed Vikings team really has is an unsustainable penchant for getting the ball to bounce its way.
Minnesota had the league’s 26th-ranked passing defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA this year. Its scoring defense was 30th in the league. Really, this team isn’t good. You have to do more than throw the ball up to Justin Jefferson every other play to win a championship in this grueling sport. Sorry if that was breaking news to anyone.
3
Buffalo Bills
How they win the Super Bowl: Change absolutely nothing.
The Bills were the No. 1 team in the final team DVOA ratings of the season. They had the No. 2 offense, the No. 4 defense, and the top special teams unit. They have a top-five coach in Sean McDermott and the 1B quarterback in football in Josh Allen. The Bills have … everything.
Oh, and now they’re playing with their recovering brother Damar Hamlin in mind. No one would be surprised if this exact mix, this same team, simply transferred the whole operation over seamlessly to Arizona in a month. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
2
Philadelphia Eagles
How they win the Super Bowl: Don’t unleash Jalen Hurts until he’s ready and completely healthy.
If Philadelphia hadn’t gotten the NFC’s lone bye, there’s a reality where they’d be forced to play a still-injured Jalen Hurts in a playoff game. Not ideal. But even when the Eagles get the ball rolling in the Divisional Round, the way they discuss Hurts’ shoulder doesn’t make it sound like a problem that will just vanish this playoff. If anything, it sounds like something that needs real time to heal — time away from the default punishment of football.
Depending on who they face in the second round of the playoffs, an intriguing potential strategy would be Philadelphia leaning more on its running game and otherwise talented roster to carry the burden instead of asking Hurts to unleash the dragon with his arm. It’s not necessarily a luxury a team can afford in win-or-go-home games, but it’s one the Eagles might have to deploy if they want Hurts’ health to last another four weeks.
It’s just a thought. Have him throw the ball 35 times and run it 10, if you want, Philadelphia.
1
Kansas City Chiefs
How they win the Super Bowl: Facilitate the Patrick Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection, and don’t get in their way.
There’s little doubting it now: Despite Kelce’s status as a “tight end,” Mahomes and Kelce are one of the greatest QB-to-pass target combinations in NFL history. How else do you explain Kelce attaining a career-high in targets (152), receptions (110), his second-most ever receiving yards (1,338), and a career-high in touchdowns (12).
Remember, this happened without Tyreek Hill, where Kelce was the primary focus of every defensive game plan now. And, still, no one could stop him.
By now, everyone understands the Chiefs’ reputation.
Patrick Mahomes — the likely MVP winner this season — will get his. So is Kelce. And they’re going to score points. As we learned last postseason, they are not truly dead until that clock reads all zeroes and they have fewer points. And that’s because Mahomes and Kelce never stop coming. Ever. Imagine trying to stop the NFL’s premier dynamic duo in the postseason clutch. “Stop” might be a generous use of the term, considering these two can likely take the Chiefs to the promised land by themselves.
