No team gets the offseason completely right. No matter how many good draft picks or free agent signings you might have, something’s always bound to go wrong.
And, over the first four weeks of the 2023 NFL season, it has.
Every franchise has its share of regrets after roughly a quarter of the regular season. Some are new and glaring. Some have lasted years and are nagging. And others don’t hurt as much because their rosters are 4-0 and gliding toward a playoff berth.
But each of these vessels has maintenance left to be done, whether that’s patching minor leaks or scrambling for enough duct tape to keep the front from falling off. Let’s run down the regrets, ranging from middling to massive, each NFL team is staring down after tallying up the early returns of their 2023 season.
1
Arizona Cardinals: Trading for Joshua Dobbs
Releasing Colt McCoy and trading for Dobbs appeared to wave a white flag on what promised to be a lost season in the first place. Kyler Murray was set to start the year on injured reserve, the team’s two sack leaders from 2022 were each gone and a long rebuild felt like the franchise’s destiny. The mission was simple: play poorly enough, earn the top draft pick in 2024 and go from there.
But Dobbs has been a perfectly suitable replacement, capable of not just showing up but leading a team to upset wins. Then again, he’s only 1-3 and making this 2023 tank job entertaining, so it’s a minor regret at worst — assuming you came into the year with low expectations.
2
Atlanta Falcons: Not finding someone capable of throwing to Kyle Pitts (again)
Desmond Ridder deserved a shot at the starting role, but the swapover from Marcus Mariota to the second-year quarterback has yet to pay dividends in the passing game. What’s worse, it threatens to waste another year of potential production from Pitts.
Kyle Pitts is stuck in purgatory:
2023 — 52.9% catchable target rate (last among TEs)
2022 — 63% catchable targets (last)
Pitts has seen just nine (9!!) catchable targets through three games. A total of 23 TEs have 10+ catchable targets.
via @FantasyPtsData
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) September 27, 2023
Ridder’s last two games, both losses, have seen him contribute a -28 expected points to the lineup. He’s processing his reads too slowly, crumbling under pressure and making bad decisions. Maybe he’ll fix things — or maybe he’ll prove to be a worse starter than backup Taylor Heinicke.
3
Baltimore Ravens: Running afoul of the injury gods once more (or maybe just having a below average training staff)
Only 12 players have started all four games of the 2023 season for the Ravens. Missing extended time far have been: JK Dobbins (out for the season), Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Andrews, Odafe Oweh, Marcus Williams, Ronnie Stanley and more. Maybe this is simply awful luck for the fourth straight year. Or maybe Baltimore’s training and conditioning staff is as mediocre as the annual players’ survey suggests.
4
Buffalo Bills: Forcing Stefon Diggs to free solo the wideout load again
Buffalo spent its first round pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid, and while he’s been useful, he’s not yet a true reliable option in the passing game. That means Stefon Diggs remains Josh Allen’s unquestioned huckleberry — and that opponents will focus all their skill points on stopping him come the postseason.
That’s a strategy that’s paid off. In the Bills’ last three playoff losses, Diggs has 27 targets but just 13 catches for 119 yards — a 4.4 yards per target mark that’s roughly half his regular season average as a Bill.
5
Carolina Panthers: Trading away their top receiver and the best option to help Bryce Young as a rookie
It was a necessary part of the deal that brought 2023’s top overall draft pick to Charlotte, but it’s clear the Panthers could use a player with DJ Moore’s talent at wideout. While Adam Thielen has been productive, he hasn’t been especially open. His 3.1 yards per separation per route is roughly league average, but it’s tops among Panthers wideouts.
DJ Chark clocks in at a subpar 2.7 and rookie Jonathan Mingo’s 1.8 is worst among full-time targets. Young is capable of fitting the ball into tight windows, but limited options have him staring at incompletions or worse if his passes float or flutter even the slightest.
6
Chicago Bears: Changing Justin Fields' gameplan
Justin Fields ran for 1,143 yards in 2022 in a league where it’s been proven you can build a playoff team around a mobile quarterback. Despite this, head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy have dialed up a playbook designed to put blinders on Fields’ instincts and force him to process amidst the chaos of collapsing pockets. The third-year quarterback has since devolved into career worsts of 33 rush yards per game and a mere 3.4 yards before contact per carry — down from 5.4 a season ago.
At the same time, his passing efficiency remains roughly where it was last fall. This all suggests everything about 2023, barring a brilliant first half against the Broncos, has left this offense in football purgatory.
7
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow's lacking calf strength
It’s clear the Bengals offense cannot operate with Burrow limping around the pocket. A gameplan of short passes has helped reduce his liability of getting hit, but taken all the punch from the Cincinnati passing offense and neutered big play threats like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. This nagging injury could haunt the team all season, pulling its playoff hopes into the mush with it.
8
Cleveland Browns: Handing Deshaun Watson $230 million fully guaranteed before his first snap with the team
Maybe Week 3’s stellar performance against the Titans was the start of a trend. Or maybe it was an outlier for a player who’s been approximately the NFL’s 30th-most valuable quarterback since moving to Cleveland.
Either way, the player the Browns traded for despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as “predatory behavior” hasn’t come close to living up to his unprecedented contract extension.
9
Dallas Cowboys: Not adding extra cornerback depth behind Trevon Diggs and Stephon Gilmore
Diggs’ torn ACL means the Cowboys’ defense will have to rely heavily on DaRon Bland, Jourdan Lewis and safety Malik Hooker to play larger roles in the defense. This wasn’t a problem in Week 4, but beating (or destroying, as it turns out) Mac Jones and beating Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen or Tua Tagovailoa are very different tasks.
Maybe Sunday’s win was the start of Bland’s ascension and the next link in a chain of dominant defensive backs in Dallas. Or maybe bad times are on the way.
10
Denver Broncos: Letting Ejiro Evero leave
The Broncos let Justin Fields slide his way to a perfect passer rating through one half and a 21-7 lead. Sure he coughed it up — it was the Bears, after all — but there’s no unit in the NFL that inspires less confidence than Vance Joseph’s defense.
The step back here has been palable, despite many of the same players returning from last year’s top 10 unit. That points to Evero’s decision to take the defensive coordinator job in Carolina as a major reason why Denver stinks out loud.
11
Detroit Lions: That Jack Campbell isn't quite ready to supplant Alex Anzalone
Detroit was proactive to fill a need in the middle of its defense, drafting reigning Butkus Award winner Campbell in the first round back in April. While Campbell has the talent and vision to be a star, his transition to Sundays has been slower than hoped — he’s played just 46 percent of the defensive snaps as Alex Anzalone has continued to play a starring role at off-ball linebacker.
The Lions would prefer he didn’t. Anzalone has allowed 12 of his 17 targets in coverage to be caught and, more concerningly, has been credited with six missed tackles in 30 attempts, per Pro Football Reference.
12
Green Bay Packers: Not finding a stable, reliable veteran possession receiver
Romeo Doubs has grown into his role ahead of schedule. Christian Watson is back after a hamstring injury (his second in two seasons). But Green Bay is still missing a reliable target who can settle into the weak spots of zone coverage, sit down and pick up a big gain at the sticks.
The Packers have five players with more than six targets on the season and not one has a success rate — a stat that measures how reliable a player is at keeping the offense on schedule — above 50 percent this season. That group has 33 first downs on 96 targets (34 percent first down rate). Comparatively, the 49ers’ top five most targeted players have 49 first downs on 95 targets (52 percent). One of these offenses is treating its young quarterback much better than the other.
13
Houston Texans: Hamstringing Will Anderson Jr.'s rookie of the year campaign by not getting him help
Anderson has been as advertised as a rookie. His five quarterback hits and six knockdowns paint him as a top-25(ish) pass rusher in the NFL. But that’s only manifested in a single sack, leaving him without the counting stats needed to be a first year superstar.
That’s because the Texans have little firepower around him, particularly among a defense whose 23 percent pressure rate ranks firmly in the middle of all defenses this fall. Anderson is facing massive expectations after Houston traded a future first-round pick — especially risky when you’re the Texans — to acquire him. Instead he’s helping Jonathan Greenard (three sacks) clean up and may not get the credit due in a solid start.
14
Indianapolis Colts: Trading away Stephon Gilmore
Gilmore remains a high performing cornerback; a 66.0 passer rating allowed is his lowest since winning defensive player of the year honors in 2019. The Colts, meanwhile, are allowing a 96.7 rating in coverage this season, which ranks 23rd in the league, led by a cache of corners who’ve allowed a 70 percent completion rate when targeted in 2023.
15
Jacksonville Jaguars: Not investing harder in their offensive line
The Jags offset Jawaan Taylor’s departure by drafting Anton Harrison, but the move has yet to pay dividends up front. Lawrence’s sack rate (5.3 percent) and pressure rate (23.5 percent) are at career highs and his 2.0 seconds in the pocket per drop back is both a career low and third-lowest figure in the NFL. As a result he’s attempting fewer deep and intermediate passes and the Jacksonville offense has remained stuck in neutral despite bringing the team’s top skill players back together for 2023 and adding Calvin Ridley to the receiving corps.
16
Kansas City Chiefs: Hoping the receiving corps would sort itself out
I talked all about it here. In short, Mahomes doesn’t have a reliable option behind Travis Kelce and it’s limited the aspects of his game that make him so special. He was forcing square pegs into round holes against the Jets, a move he got away with in Week 4 but won’t come the postseason.
17
Las Vegas Raiders: Retaining Josh McDaniel
The man opted to kick a field goal while trailing by eight points in the final 3:15 of a Week 3 home game against the Steelers. In fact, he did this *twice.* Absolute doofus behavior from the coach who blew three different leads of at least 17-0 in his first eight games as the team’s head coach in 2022.
18
Los Angeles Chargers: Retaining Brandon Staley
Los Angeles hired Kellen Moore to revamp the offense and Justin Herbert has responded with the breakthrough season pundits had expected for years. But while Moore’s performance has earned positive marks, the man above him in the pecking order has not.
Staley’s fourth down decisions have been constantly baffling, as he’s not only gone for it on fourth-and-short in vital fourth-quarter situations while protecting a lead but called some horribly unimaginative and easily-stopped plays once he got there. The football gods bailed him out when the Vikings and Raiders couldn’t capitalize, allowing him to escape with his first two wins of the season. Other teams won’t be as gracious.
19
Los Angeles Rams: Relying on unproven defensive line help around Aaron Donald
Donald remains a wrecking ball, but he’s the elder statesman on this unit — and one of only two players on the defense to have started at least 10 games for the Rams in 2022. That lack of cohesion hasn’t been fatal, but it has been noticeable in a season where both the Colts and 49ers were able to put up healthy rushing totals. Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against a Los Angeles front lacking established contributors up front, and a showdown against the run-heavy Eagles offense looms.
20
Miami Dolphins: Not adding further cornerback help beyond Jalen Ramsey
This is a nitpick; Ramsey will be back from injury at some point and provide value in the Miami secondary. And, good lord, do the Dolphins need it. Kader Kohou will have recurring nightmares about what Stefon Diggs did to him in Week 4; he’s currently giving up a 155.0 passer rating in coverage — three points shy of perfection. Every single cornerback on the roster has given up a completion rate in coverage of at least 60 percent — and that low number belongs to Eli Apple, who history suggests will implode at some point.
21
Minnesota Vikings Not address the pass blocking in the draft (or free agency)
Kirk Cousins appears doomed to repeat 2020; a season in which he put up shiny numbers but was pressured on more than 30 percent of his dropbacks and the Vikings went 7-9, never once cresting above .500. He’s in a similar spot this fall; his 27.8 percent pressure rate is the second-highest number of his career.
He’ll have an even tougher time dealing with that now that his mostly average scrambling skills have declined with age. That’s not the reason why all four of his interceptions have come deep in opponents’ territory, but it’s not helping.
22
New England Patriots: The offensive selections of the 2022 NFL Draft
Cole Strange has been decent enough as a starter, but he’s hurt and has yet to live up to his shock selection in the first round. Tyquan Thornton has 22 career receptions. Pierre Strong is a Cleveland Brown. Bailey Zappe’s most significant attribute is that he isn’t Mac Jones. The Patriots have the defense to make a run to the postseason, but the offense is extremely not there — thanks in part to a brutal 2022 draft class.
23
New Orleans Saints: Settling for Derek Carr
Carr was a reasonable addition for what the Saints wanted to do in 2023; keep the gang together and vie for a division title in a weak-looking NFC South. The price tag on this was a four-year, $150 million contract that isn’t as expensive as it looks but still ties the veteran quarterback to the roster through 2024.
Carr has been fairly mediocre and missed a chunk of the team’s loss to the Packers due to injury, marking what’s trending toward his third straight season with a declining passer rating. Key contributors like Michael Thomas, Demario Davis, Cameron Jordan, Tyrann Mathieu and more are all on the wrong side of 30 years old. A lagging Carr could shut what was an already rapidly closing window for contention.
24
New York Giants: Giving Daniel Jones $160 million
Daniel Jones in 2022’s breakthrough season:
Daniel Jones through four weeks of 2023 after receiving a four-year, $160 million contract:
On the plus side, he can be released after 2024 and only count $11 million against the team’s salary cap moving forward!
25
New York Jets: Rolling with two unreliable offensive tackles
Mekhi Becton has already played three more games than he did in 2021 and 2022 combined, but Pro Football Focus grades him out at a frustrating 52.1 (out of 100). Duane Brown is 38 years old and made it two weeks before landing on injured reserve.
By their powers combined the Jets have allowed pressure on a league-high 35.9 percent of their dropbacks. Even if Aaron Rodgers hadn’t gotten hurt in Week 1, he’d have plenty to complain about.
26
Philadelphia Eagles: Hoping Terrell Edmunds, Justin Evans and some duct tape could patch a hole at safety
The Eagles’ cornerbacks may be slowing down with age; James Bradberry and Darius Slay have yet to live up to their 2022 standards. But Philadelphia insulated itself from decline by picking up young, blue chip athletes who can work into larger roles — Josh Jobe’s already there and Kelee Ringo/Eli Ricks are lottery tickets in that regard.
Things are a bit iffier at safety, where Edmunds’ prior season struggles have continued and Evans contributed at a replacement player level before getting hurt in Week 3. The Eagles are 4-0 but vulnerable through the air; opposing quarterbacks have a 99.5 passer rating against them this season despite having faced non-stars like Mac Jones, Sam Howell and Baker Mayfield.
27
Pittsburgh Steelers: Imagining second-year progress from Kenny Pickett
Upgrades to Pickett’s offensive line have yet to pay dividends, but the fact of the matter remains he’s been soundly below average in his sophomore campaign. A league-high 35 percent pressure rate isn’t helping, but even if he had time in the pocket an also-league-high 23.6 percent bad throw rate suggests he’d have a muted impact downfield. The second-year quarterback is attempting shorter passes and completing less of them, leaving behind a punch-less offense that coordinator Matt Canada has shown zero insight into repairing.
28
San Francisco 49ers: Trading three first-round picks to draft Trey Lance
Yeah, it’s tough to come up with a nagging flaw when your team is 4-0 and looks like a Super Bowl favorite. But imagine how good it could be if John Lynch kept the picks he dealt to Miami and still, somehow, crafted a universe where he drafted Brock Purdy in the seventh round and inserted him into the lineup as a rookie. It’s all very unlikely and the Niners should be happy things unfolded the way they did, but being satisfied is for fools and not what this exercise is about.
29
Seattle Seahawks: Julian Love's rough transition to the West Coast
Things are going well for Seattle and there isn’t much in terms of fatal flaws here. Love, who looked like one of the offseason’s shrewder signings, has been a disappointment however.
He’s been picked on more than he ever had as a Giant — his 6.8 targets per game are more than double his heaviest season in New York — and his 130.8 passer rating allowed is the worst of his career. Fortunately, Jamal Adams’ return from injury should lessen his importance and allow him to shine as a complementary piece once more.
30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keeping the run game in neutral
Tampa made modest changes to its offensive line, drafting Cody Mauch and signing Matt Feiler, but losing Ryan Jensen for another season has left the Bucs understaffed in the middle. Perhaps a better running back platoon could overcome this, but Rachaad White is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and No. 2 on the call sheet, Sean Tucker, has 15 carries and 26 yards so far. For the second straight season, no team in the NFL has a rushing attack less potent than Tampa Bay, and it could unravel Baker Mayfield’s unlikely career resurgence.
31
Tennessee Titans: Not giving Tyjae Spears more time to shine
We knew Spears was a game-changer in college. He’s suggested the same as a pro, averaging better than six yards per carry. Eight of his 21 carries (officially 20, since one was the recovery of a botched snap) have gone for eight yards or more).
His 3.8 yards after contact lead the league. Derrick Henry is still useful, but clearly winding down — his YAC number clocks in at 2.0, the lowest of his career. Why not feature the rookie for more than five carries per game in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense?
32
Washington Commanders: Declining Chase Young's fifth-year option
Yes, it would have been a risk to lock Young in for $17.4 million in 2024 after he’d played only 12 games between 2021 and 2022. And yes, he’s already missed a game in 2023.
But Young continues to show the talent that made him 2020’s defensive rookie of the year. He has 2.5 sacks, three tackles for loss and four quarterback hits in his three games, putting him on pace for career highs in just about every meaningful statistical category. If he can stay healthy, he’ll command a lot more than $17 million next year.
