To some, the NFC was a Junior Varsity conference compared to its upper-echelon peer in the AFC.
Whereas the AFC is loaded with young, promising signal-callers at the helm of legitimate Super Bowl contenders (the incomparable Patrick Mahomes is the oldest in the field at the age of … 27???), the NFC presents more of a confusing mix of has-beens, never-was, and just-starting-to-ascend. After all, the top seed in the conference in the Eagles was led by Jalen Hurts, who only truly came to prominence as a starter in Year 3 of his career.
With that said, there’s still plenty of chaos to sort through while the Eagles rest for now. This weekend for the NFC, while probably less dramatic on paper than its conference cousin, should be a doozy in sorting out the final four for this year’s postseason. Because, as everyone knows: When there isn’t an authentic heavyweight playing, and it seems like everyone’s just figuring it out as they go along, then, well … it’s anyone’s ball game.
Let’s break down one important burning question for every squad playing in the NFC Wild Card Round during the 2023 NFL Playoffs (and check out our burning questions for the AFC Wild Card teams).
1
Seattle Seahawks: Is everything built around smoke and mirrors?
The Seahawks were undoubtedly one of the more encouraging storylines from this 2022 NFL season. No one in their right mind (except for Pete Carroll, perhaps) expected a previous journeyman like Geno Smith to not only take Seattle to the playoffs but break its franchise record for passing yards in a single season. The Seahawks are a heartwarming story of redemption and keeping your head up even amidst the most adverse circumstances.
It’s January achievements of consistency like this with Carroll that should be celebrated:
The Seahawks still haven’t missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons under Pete Carroll. pic.twitter.com/Nm1CNpMk2q
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 9, 2023
And yet, everything they built in 2022 feels like it stands on the weakest house of cards. While the Seahawks found a way to sneak into the playoffs, it’d be hard to say they did anything but back their way in. After starting the year 6-4, Seattle lost four of its last seven games, seemingly doing everything possible to fade down the stretch. If not for Baker Mayfield somewhat reverting to form and “enjoying” poor officiating for the Rams in Week 18, with the Lions simultaneously deciding to punch the Packers in the mouth, this Seattle team with a not-so-inspiring +6 point differential (12th in the league) isn’t even playing this weekend.
Do the Seahawks still have feathers in their cap? Of course, they do. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain one of the league’s premier WR duos. Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker headed up a promising rookie class (along with Tariq Woolen) that was the main reason Seattle surprised people in the first place this season. But Carroll and Co.’s last win over a team with a winning record came against the Giants — who have their own flaws — before Halloween.
The Seahawks shouldn’t be discouraged and should appreciate their playoff achievement. I’m just not sure this No. 7 seed has any more rabbits to pull out of a hat, especially against the rival 49ers — the arguably most complete team in the NFC Wild Card field.
2
San Francisco 49ers: Can Brock Purdy be trusted?
On a pure talent and coaching basis, there might not be a more Super Bowl-ready team playing this weekend than the 49ers. From the NFL’s top offensive mind/play-caller in Kyle Shanahan, leading a loaded cadre of playmakers to a stifling defense that barely lets its opponents breathe, San Francisco has it all. Well, except for the proven, established, and experienced quarterback.
This is not meant to discount the 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Purdy, who has turned in quite the rap sheet of solid game-manager performances since taking over as the 49ers’ full-time starter in a tough injury-pressed situation. The numbers say he’s been just fine. In fact, even if Purdy didn’t reach a minimum of 200 qualifying passes for most notable statistics, he still finished with a robust 8.1 yards per pass attempt. That ties the Chiefs’ Mahomes for the highest among all starting quarterbacks in the entire playoff field. What’s more, is that Purdy’s adjusted EPA since taking the red and gold helm is fourth among all starters:
Let's look at the advanced QB stats since Brock Purdy took over as starting QB for the 49ers. 🧵:
(Source: @benbbaldwin and https://t.co/4MVbH5OwVm)
Adjusted EPA/play:
2. Jalen Hurts
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Brock Purdy
7. Josh Allen
12. Joe Burrow— Stephen Andress (@StephenAndress1) January 9, 2023
But these sorts of figures, again, heavily discount the ideal situation Purdy has been placed in. There might not be a better quarterback whisperer in football than Shanahan. There might not be a better assortment of weapons than All-Pro/Pro Bowl-caliber skill players like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. If Purdy does happen to make a backbreaking mistake, then he has the NFL’s No. 1 scoring and DVOA defense, with Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Nick Bosa to back him up.
It’s never easy playing quarterback in the NFL, but Purdy might as well have the softest landing pad to work with. The 49ers are so good that Purdy’s evident limitations (happy feet and poor mechanics, hello!) in the pocket probably won’t come back to bite them against the Seahawks. Still, we’re not exactly talking about an irreplaceable quarterback who couldn’t see his production replicated by, oh, I don’t know, Jimmy Garoppolo. When it comes to obvious weak links being buoyed by their incredible supporting cast, Purdy likely stands alone in the NFC Wild Card round.
And if Seattle can somehow stretch him thin, exposing the 49ers’ main vulnerability, they might be in bigger trouble than we thought.
3
New York Giants: Does New York create enough big plays?
The easy route to picking apart the Giants’ playoff prospects would’ve been discussing Daniel Jones’ merits. But there’s little question that Brian Daboll has turned the formerly much-maligned first-round pick into a solid anchor who can at least execute his scheme. After all, New York does not have a stacked roster, and Daboll seemingly wrung as much as possible out of his talent-bereft crew than any coach in the league.
I mean, the below successful statistic about Jones and Saquon Barkley as a legitimate rushing duo is staggering and speaks to how the Giants want to pound the ball successfully at all costs:
2022 Top QB/RB Rushing Duos
1. Jalen Hurts/Miles Sanders 2029 yards 24 TD
2. Daniel Jones/Saquon Barkley 2020 yards 17 TD
3. Justin Fields/David Montgomerey 1944 yards 13 TD
4. Jacoby Brissett/Nick Chubb 1763 yards 14 TD
5. Derek Carr/Josh Jacobs 1755 yards 12 TD— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) January 9, 2023
But, eventually, when push comes to shove, you’ve got to be able to match firepower with firepower. You need to be able to test defenses downfield. I’d be hard-pressed to argue the Giants have the ability to do that, especially with only Barkley as the sole consistent game-breaker on the squad.
On a big-play basis (25 yards or more), the Giants ranked dead last in the NFL with a mere 16 completed throws of such distance. Their passing offense overall ranked 26th in the league, with really only passing-challenged bottom-feeders like the Falcons and Bears faring worse. And when you peruse the Giants’ general offensive depth chart (Darius Slayton WR1???), you start to notice just how special of an all-purpose 2022 Barkley had, with all things considered.
New York plays a unique brand of bully ball centered around hiding its greatest flaws as much as it can. It’s a tangible mix that led to nine wins and the NFC’s sixth seed. It also has a short shelf life when you have to start testing the genuine contenders of the postseason. Fortunately, the opposing Vikings do not seem like a “real contender” and are likely just as fatally flawed as the Giants. Still, to upset Minnesota on the road, Daboll and Co. will probably have to let loose a bit more on offense — especially if Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson have their way in a potential shootout.
I’m not sure Big Blue is capable of winning shot for shot.
4
Minnesota Vikings: When does the luck run out?
Strip away all context, and you’d see the Vikings’ final 13-4 record and think they were an unmitigated juggernaut. Surely, Kirk Cousins had had the finest, most efficient year of his career (he did not), while Minnesota’s offense amounted to more than “Justin Jefferson has to keep his cool and win every single route for us to even have a chance.”
Look a little closer, and you might have one of the “luckiest” teams in NFL history with a -3 point differential and all four separate defeats coming by multiple scores:
The Vikings finished 13-4 despite a -3 point differential and won an NFL record 11 one-score games. The 4 losses were by 17, 37, 11, and 24 points. Either complete Fools Gold or a Team of Destiny.
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) January 9, 2023
You read that right. The Vikings won an NFL record 11 one-score games. They even had to come back from 33 points down just to eventually supplant Jeff Saturday’s hapless Colts. There might be something to Minnesota knowing how to play in the clutch and put teams away when the margin is tight. But on an aggregate basis, even the finest squads don’t enjoy such sustainable fortune and make every single play when they have to the way the Vikings have this year.
Never mind that when push came to shove, when a hot team actually gave Minnesota decent pushback — like the Cowboys, Lions, and Packers all did down the stretch — it was downright alarming how little of an answer the Vikings had. Even more so, it should be distressing how the Minnesota attack amounted to nothing in three of its four defeats when Jefferson was a non-factor. In the playoffs, better defenses will take away what you do best without blinking and will start to blur the lines on luck in a close, tense matchup. The Vikings have been too fortunate to date while leaning heavily on the singular talents of the NFL’s leading receiver and seemingly little else.
In essence, the Vikings could reasonably see the bottom fall out from under them when a physical bunch gives them even a little pushback. Or, you know: A playoff death sentence and litmus test in adversity. (Touches hand to earpiece) What’s that? The Giants have the fourth-ranked rushing offense, while the Vikings have the 20th-ranked rushing defense? Yes, yes, I’ll relay the message, don’t worry.
5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Can Tom Brady turn back the clock at least one more time?
If I told you Tom Brady finished third in the NFL in passing (4,694 yards) without mentioning anything else, you’d think, “same old Tom!” Wow, look at Brady go! He’ll play football forever!
With his 13 completions today, Tom Brady finishes the season with 490 completions, an NFL record. The previous mark was 485, set by himself last season. pic.twitter.com/DSiJt3mixC
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 8, 2023
If I told you he averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt and needed over 730 throws (!!!) to get those numbers, you’d think, “why are you still playing professional football, Tom?”
As Brady, somewhat unthinkably, gets set to host another playoff game at the helm of a division champion that finished under .500, he’ll naturally be under the spotlight. And while the 45-year-old definitely has something left in the tank, it was evident that 2022 was the first significant sign of decline for the sport’s arguably biggest name in its entire history. To be clear, not all of Brady’s struggles were on him. Part of the reason he eventually left the Patriots (in addition to New England no longer wanting him) was that the then-situation wasn’t exactly conducive to dynamic offensive football.
For his first two years with the Buccaneers, Brady had the pleasure of throwing from behind one of the NFL’s premier offensive lines while utilizing safety valves like Mike Evans and, still, Rob Gronkowski. In 2022, a cavalcade of injuries, retirements (except for Brady’s, ironically), and age had the former Super Bowl champions looking like a shell of a team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy roughly only two years ago. If quarterbacks, even the GOAT, are as much of a product of their situation as they are in elevating their teammates, it was no wonder an aging Brady found this season to be more of a challenge.
That said: if you leave the door open for even just a smidge, Brady has proven that he’s still capable of using his foot (er, arm) as a doorstop in the clutch. Tampa Bay already defeated the Cowboys earlier this year, albeit under different circumstances almost four months ago (a lifetime in NFL terms). But if there’s a team that will inexplicably let Brady hang around, allowing him to pounce, it’s unquestionably Dallas.
And you know Brady won’t waste such a postseason chance even if he’s starting to lose his luster.
6
Dallas Cowboys: Are Dak Prescott and Co. ready for crunch time?
It’s been a long time, perhaps even decades dating back to the Jimmy Johnson era, since the Cowboys had this much of an opening for a potential Super Bowl run. Save for the prospects of the fellow NFC heavyweight Eagles and 49ers; there’s a reasonable reality where it’s Dallas representing the conference in Super Bowl 57 in Arizona. From Micah Parsons to CeeDee Lamb, they certainly have the talent. And it’s not like this iteration of Dallas is necessarily inexperienced on the postseason stage, either — always a plus.
But the terrifying elephant in the room is whether the Cowboys can avoid shooting themselves in the foot at the worst possible time. This applies particularly to newfound turnover machine Dak Prescott.
Despite playing in just 12 games due to injury, Prescott led the NFL in interceptions thrown (15). Some of his picks, like against the Packers in Lambeau in mid-November or a forced throw into Jacksonville’s Rayshawn Jenkins’ hands last month, were egregiously bad and quite literally cost Dallas both matchups in both instances.
Fortunately for the Cowboys, thanks to a second-ranked defense by many metrics, and some solid safety valves in Lamb and Tony Pollard, they have a higher margin for error than most. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, their coach is also Mike McCarthy — a man with perhaps the most notorious reputation for completely bungling and mismanaging tight playoff games in the modern NFL. Between the league’s highest-turnover-prone QB and a coach who self-combusts when he’s asked to proactively use a timeout, Dallas remains susceptible to a comical round-up of errors that could cost it in a hotly-contested playoff battle.
No matter how good the rest of your roster is, the last thing you want in the playoffs is a coach who has somehow never learned clock management with years of experience and a quarterback who morphs into a pumpkin when it’s time to put his foot on the gas. Dallas can absolutely make a run to the Super Bowl. Or a combination of Prescott’s overzealousness and McCarthy’s nervousness sinks them in vintage Cowboys fashion. There is no in-between. Dallas probably drew the worst Wild Card matchup for the latter sentiment considering the all-time clutch factor of the man wearing the red Tampa Bay No. 12 on the other sideline this Monday night.
